Skip to main content
Market icon
Monde·Élections Mondiales

Quels candidats se qualifieront pour le second tour de la présidentielle brésilienne ?

Market icon
Monde·Élections Mondiales

Quels candidats se qualifieront pour le second tour de la présidentielle brésilienne ?

$271,642 Vol.

4 oct. 2026
Polymarket

$271,642 Vol.

Polymarket

Flavio Bolsonaro

$15,796 Vol.

88%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$112,310 Vol.

79%

Fernando Haddad

$47,640 Vol.

16%

Tarcisio de Frietas

$65,851 Vol.

5%

Michelle Bolsonaro

$20,584 Vol.

4%

Jair Bolsonaro

$9,461 Vol.

4%

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads first-round polls for Brazil's October 4, 2026, presidential election, garnering 37-40% in early April surveys from Quaest, Datafolha, MDA, and Futura, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro close behind at 30-37% as the field remains fragmented and no candidate approaches the 50% threshold for an outright victory. These results position Lula and Bolsonaro as frontrunners to advance to the October 25 runoff, reflecting trader consensus on opposition consolidation behind the right-wing senator amid Lula's incumbency edge. Simulated runoffs show statistical ties or narrow edges for either, with undecided voters at 10-20% and narrowing gaps signaling volatility ahead of August candidate registrations and campaign start.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$271,642
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads first-round polls for Brazil's October 4, 2026, presidential election, garnering 37-40% in early April surveys from Quaest, Datafolha, MDA, and Futura, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro close behind at 30-37% as the field remains fragmented and no candidate approaches the 50% threshold for an outright victory. These results position Lula and Bolsonaro as frontrunners to advance to the October 25 runoff, reflecting trader consensus on opposition consolidation behind the right-wing senator amid Lula's incumbency edge. Simulated runoffs show statistical ties or narrow edges for either, with undecided voters at 10-20% and narrowing gaps signaling volatility ahead of August candidate registrations and campaign start.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$271,642
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Quels candidats se qualifieront pour le second tour de la présidentielle brésilienne ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 6 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Flavio Bolsonaro » à 88%, suivi de « Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva » à 79%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 88¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 88% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Quels candidats se qualifieront pour le second tour de la présidentielle brésilienne ? » a généré $271.6K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Sep 18, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Quels candidats se qualifieront pour le second tour de la présidentielle brésilienne ? », parcourez les 6 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Quels candidats se qualifieront pour le second tour de la présidentielle brésilienne ? » est « Flavio Bolsonaro » à 88%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 88% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva » à 79%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Quels candidats se qualifieront pour le second tour de la présidentielle brésilienne ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.