Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 76.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by hotter-than-expected March CPI inflation rising to 3.3% annually—the highest since May 2024—and a robust March jobs report adding 178,000 positions with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. These developments signal persistent price pressures and labor market resilience, reinforcing the Fed's recent decision to hold rates steady at the March 19 meeting while projecting just one cut later in 2026. Modest 13.5% odds for a 25 basis point decrease reflect lingering disinflation hopes, but upside risks dominate amid producer prices hitting a three-year high. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI and nonfarm payrolls releases.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाकोई बदलाव नहीं 77%
25 बीपीएस की कमी 14%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि 4.0%
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती 3.5%
$3,654,771 वॉल्यूम
$3,654,771 वॉल्यूम
29 जुल, 2026
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती
3%
25 बीपीएस की कमी
14%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
77%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि
4%
50+ बेसिस प्वाइंट वृद्धि
1%
कोई बदलाव नहीं 77%
25 बीपीएस की कमी 14%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि 4.0%
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती 3.5%
$3,654,771 वॉल्यूम
$3,654,771 वॉल्यूम
29 जुल, 2026
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती
$162,862 वॉल्यूम
3%
25 बीपीएस की कमी
$112,099 वॉल्यूम
14%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
$173,570 वॉल्यूम
77%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि
$3,017,932 वॉल्यूम
4%
50+ बेसिस प्वाइंट वृद्धि
$188,308 वॉल्यूम
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 76.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by hotter-than-expected March CPI inflation rising to 3.3% annually—the highest since May 2024—and a robust March jobs report adding 178,000 positions with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. These developments signal persistent price pressures and labor market resilience, reinforcing the Fed's recent decision to hold rates steady at the March 19 meeting while projecting just one cut later in 2026. Modest 13.5% odds for a 25 basis point decrease reflect lingering disinflation hopes, but upside risks dominate amid producer prices hitting a three-year high. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI and nonfarm payrolls releases.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$3,654,771समाप्ति तिथि
29 जुल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 76.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by hotter-than-expected March CPI inflation rising to 3.3% annually—the highest since May 2024—and a robust March jobs report adding 178,000 positions with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. These developments signal persistent price pressures and labor market resilience, reinforcing the Fed's recent decision to hold rates steady at the March 19 meeting while projecting just one cut later in 2026. Modest 13.5% odds for a 25 basis point decrease reflect lingering disinflation hopes, but upside risks dominate amid producer prices hitting a three-year high. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI and nonfarm payrolls releases.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
वॉल्यूम
$3,654,771समाप्ति तिथि
29 जुल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 76.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by hotter-than-expected March CPI inflation rising to 3.3% annually—the highest since May 2024—and a robust March jobs report adding 178,000 positions with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. These developments signal persistent price pressures and labor market resilience, reinforcing the Fed's recent decision to hold rates steady at the March 19 meeting while projecting just one cut later in 2026. Modest 13.5% odds for a 25 basis point decrease reflect lingering disinflation hopes, but upside risks dominate amid producer prices hitting a three-year high. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI and nonfarm payrolls releases.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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