Singapore’s National Environment Agency outlook for drier-than-average conditions through mid-August, driven by southeasterly monsoon flow and reduced cloud cover, underpins the near-even split between 32 °C and 33 °C. Official guidance projects daily maxima of 33–34 °C on most days, yet actual recorded peaks at Singapore’s network of stations often fall 1–2 °C lower due to localized timing of convective showers and the urban heat-island moderation. Recent observations showing afternoon highs near 32–33 °C, combined with model consensus for modest instability on 9 August, explain why traders assign roughly 90 % combined probability to these two outcomes while discounting higher thresholds. Resolution will hinge on the official maximum reported by the Meteorological Service Singapore across its primary stations.