Recent escalation in Middle East tensions has driven oil prices near $90–95 per barrel, reviving inflation concerns and lifting the 10-year Treasury yield to intraday highs of 4.818% on September 1–2, the highest since late 2023. Hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole and Governor Michael Barr, who indicated openness to a September rate hike if inflation fails to moderate, have shifted market-implied odds of a 25 basis point increase at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting to approximately 64–66%. Traders are also digesting mixed employment data, including a soft ADP August report, alongside fiscal deficit worries and elevated Treasury supply. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 nonfarm payrolls, September 10–11 CPI and PPI releases, and the FOMC decision itself, which will shape the yield path for the remainder of the month.