Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a historical global baseline of roughly 8–12 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes per week per USGS data, with three confirmed so far in the April 13–16 period: a deep M5.5 north of Tonga on April 13, an M5.7 near Silver Springs, Nevada on April 14, and an M5.5 in the Pagan region of the Northern Mariana Islands on April 14. The >9 outcome leads at 33.5% implied probability due to Poisson-distributed seismicity allowing clusters in active zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire, while lower outcomes gain from the Nevada swarm's fading aftershocks unlikely to yield more M5.5+ events. High uncertainty stems from unpredictable fault ruptures and preliminary magnitudes subject to USGS review; watch real-time ANSS catalog updates through April 19 for shifts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया13 अप्रैल से 19 अप्रैल तक कितने 5.5 या उससे अधिक भूकंप आए?
13 अप्रैल से 19 अप्रैल तक कितने 5.5 या उससे अधिक भूकंप आए?
>9 34%
8 18%
9 15%
7 14%
$112,299 वॉल्यूम
$112,299 वॉल्यूम
19 अप्रैल, 2026
≤3
<1%
4
2%
5
7%
6
11%
7
14%
8
18%
9
15%
>9
34%
>9 34%
8 18%
9 15%
7 14%
$112,299 वॉल्यूम
$112,299 वॉल्यूम
19 अप्रैल, 2026
≤3
$73,184 वॉल्यूम
<1%
4
$7,418 वॉल्यूम
2%
5
$3,161 वॉल्यूम
7%
6
$1,400 वॉल्यूम
11%
7
$1,975 वॉल्यूम
14%
8
$2,846 वॉल्यूम
18%
9
$1,745 वॉल्यूम
15%
>9
$20,577 वॉल्यूम
34%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a historical global baseline of roughly 8–12 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes per week per USGS data, with three confirmed so far in the April 13–16 period: a deep M5.5 north of Tonga on April 13, an M5.7 near Silver Springs, Nevada on April 14, and an M5.5 in the Pagan region of the Northern Mariana Islands on April 14. The >9 outcome leads at 33.5% implied probability due to Poisson-distributed seismicity allowing clusters in active zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire, while lower outcomes gain from the Nevada swarm's fading aftershocks unlikely to yield more M5.5+ events. High uncertainty stems from unpredictable fault ruptures and preliminary magnitudes subject to USGS review; watch real-time ANSS catalog updates through April 19 for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 10, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$112,299समाप्ति तिथि
19 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 10, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a historical global baseline of roughly 8–12 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes per week per USGS data, with three confirmed so far in the April 13–16 period: a deep M5.5 north of Tonga on April 13, an M5.7 near Silver Springs, Nevada on April 14, and an M5.5 in the Pagan region of the Northern Mariana Islands on April 14. The >9 outcome leads at 33.5% implied probability due to Poisson-distributed seismicity allowing clusters in active zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire, while lower outcomes gain from the Nevada swarm's fading aftershocks unlikely to yield more M5.5+ events. High uncertainty stems from unpredictable fault ruptures and preliminary magnitudes subject to USGS review; watch real-time ANSS catalog updates through April 19 for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
वॉल्यूम
$112,299समाप्ति तिथि
19 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 10, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a historical global baseline of roughly 8–12 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes per week per USGS data, with three confirmed so far in the April 13–16 period: a deep M5.5 north of Tonga on April 13, an M5.7 near Silver Springs, Nevada on April 14, and an M5.5 in the Pagan region of the Northern Mariana Islands on April 14. The >9 outcome leads at 33.5% implied probability due to Poisson-distributed seismicity allowing clusters in active zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire, while lower outcomes gain from the Nevada swarm's fading aftershocks unlikely to yield more M5.5+ events. High uncertainty stems from unpredictable fault ruptures and preliminary magnitudes subject to USGS review; watch real-time ANSS catalog updates through April 19 for shifts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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