**Forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other models points to an overnight low of 23–25°C in Tokyo on August 31, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those values.** Recent developments include persistent cloud cover and showers through August 29–30 that have kept surface temperatures moderated, with observed lows near 21–23°C amid high humidity (dew points ~21–23°C) and light winds. Clearing or partly cloudy conditions expected on the 31st allow some radiative cooling overnight, but elevated moisture and urban heat retention in Tokyo limit the drop. Key scientific factors differentiating the leading outcomes include model spread on cloud timing (which reduces longwave radiative loss), boundary-layer mixing from variable easterly winds, and exact dew-point depression. Historical August minima average near 23°C, providing context for why extremes below 22°C or above 26°C carry low implied probabilities. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the precise threshold before market resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया31 अगस्त को टोक्यो में सबसे कम तापमान?
31 अगस्त को टोक्यो में सबसे कम तापमान?
23°C 48%
22°C 46%
26°C 43%
27°C 43%
नया
नया
31 अग, 2026
20°C or below
2%
21°C
18%
22°C
46%
23°C
48%
24°C
29%
25°C
29%
26°C
43%
27°C
43%
28°C
8%
29°C
2%
30°C or higher
1%
23°C 48%
22°C 46%
26°C 43%
27°C 43%
नया
नया
31 अग, 2026
20°C or below
$0 वॉल्यूम
2%
21°C
$0 वॉल्यूम
18%
22°C
$0 वॉल्यूम
46%
23°C
$0 वॉल्यूम
48%
24°C
$0 वॉल्यूम
29%
25°C
$0 वॉल्यूम
29%
26°C
$0 वॉल्यूम
43%
27°C
$0 वॉल्यूम
43%
28°C
$0 वॉल्यूम
8%
29°C
$0 वॉल्यूम
2%
30°C or higher
$0 वॉल्यूम
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other models points to an overnight low of 23–25°C in Tokyo on August 31, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those values.**
Recent developments include persistent cloud cover and showers through August 29–30 that have kept surface temperatures moderated, with observed lows near 21–23°C amid high humidity (dew points ~21–23°C) and light winds. Clearing or partly cloudy conditions expected on the 31st allow some radiative cooling overnight, but elevated moisture and urban heat retention in Tokyo limit the drop.
Key scientific factors differentiating the leading outcomes include model spread on cloud timing (which reduces longwave radiative loss), boundary-layer mixing from variable easterly winds, and exact dew-point depression. Historical August minima average near 23°C, providing context for why extremes below 22°C or above 26°C carry low implied probabilities. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the precise threshold before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$0समाप्ति तिथि
31 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETसमाधान स्रोत
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other models points to an overnight low of 23–25°C in Tokyo on August 31, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those values.**
Recent developments include persistent cloud cover and showers through August 29–30 that have kept surface temperatures moderated, with observed lows near 21–23°C amid high humidity (dew points ~21–23°C) and light winds. Clearing or partly cloudy conditions expected on the 31st allow some radiative cooling overnight, but elevated moisture and urban heat retention in Tokyo limit the drop.
Key scientific factors differentiating the leading outcomes include model spread on cloud timing (which reduces longwave radiative loss), boundary-layer mixing from variable easterly winds, and exact dew-point depression. Historical August minima average near 23°C, providing context for why extremes below 22°C or above 26°C carry low implied probabilities. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the precise threshold before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
वॉल्यूम
$0समाप्ति तिथि
31 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETसमाधान स्रोत
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other models points to an overnight low of 23–25°C in Tokyo on August 31, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those values.** Recent developments include persistent cloud cover and showers through August 29–30 that have kept surface temperatures moderated, with observed lows near 21–23°C amid high humidity (dew points ~21–23°C) and light winds. Clearing or partly cloudy conditions expected on the 31st allow some radiative cooling overnight, but elevated moisture and urban heat retention in Tokyo limit the drop. Key scientific factors differentiating the leading outcomes include model spread on cloud timing (which reduces longwave radiative loss), boundary-layer mixing from variable easterly winds, and exact dew-point depression. Historical August minima average near 23°C, providing context for why extremes below 22°C or above 26°C carry low implied probabilities. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the precise threshold before market resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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