State Rep. Jermaine Johnson's early lead in the February South Carolina Policy Council poll—25% to Mullins McLeod's 8% among decided Democratic primary voters—combined with his incumbency in House District 52 and recent campaign visibility, including a campus visit this week and recommitting to the race after late-March pressure to withdraw, underpin trader consensus at 72.5% implied probability for the June 9 primary. Challengers Justin A. Bennett and Billy Webster, who filed around the March 30 deadline, trail due to limited name recognition, while McLeod's support lingers at 13% amid unresolved legal issues from a 2025 arrest video and a March court bid for dismissal. Absent new polls or endorsements, markets anticipate low Democratic turnout in this Republican stronghold.