Incumbent Rep. Christian Menefee holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for the TX-18 Democratic primary runoff against veteran Rep. Al Green, following their advancement from the March 3, 2026, first-round balloting where neither exceeded 50%. Menefee, who won a special election for the seat in early 2026 after redistricting pitted the two incumbents—Menefee from the special and Green shifting from TX-9—topped the primary with around 41-46% to Green's 35-44%, while Amanda Edwards and Gretchen Brown trailed far behind. Recent polls, including a +6 Menefee edge, underscore his momentum from local prosecutorial experience and incumbency advantage in the safely Democratic Houston district, with the May 2026 runoff poised to decide the general election nominee amid criticisms over Green's floor disruptions and Menefee's brief voting record.