Traders assign a 97.4% probability that the United States will avoid default on its debt obligations by 2027, driven by repeated congressional action to raise or suspend the debt ceiling ahead of Treasury borrowing limits. Bipartisan fiscal legislation, Treasury use of extraordinary measures, and institutional incentives to prevent market disruption have sustained this pattern across multiple administrations. Recent developments include ongoing appropriations negotiations and the absence of prolonged standoffs that previously triggered brinkmanship. While the wisdom of crowds reflected in pricing shows high confidence, realistic scenarios that could alter the outcome include extended congressional gridlock during a future ceiling deadline, sharp revenue shortfalls from recession, or unexpected legal constraints on Treasury operations that compress the timeline for resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या अमेरिका 2027 तक कर्ज चुकाने में चूक कर सकता है?
क्या अमेरिका 2027 तक कर्ज चुकाने में चूक कर सकता है?
हाँ
3% संभावना
$16,315 वॉल्यूम
$16,315 वॉल्यूम
30 दिस, 2026
हाँ
3% संभावना
$16,315 वॉल्यूम
$16,315 वॉल्यूम
30 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97.4% probability that the United States will avoid default on its debt obligations by 2027, driven by repeated congressional action to raise or suspend the debt ceiling ahead of Treasury borrowing limits. Bipartisan fiscal legislation, Treasury use of extraordinary measures, and institutional incentives to prevent market disruption have sustained this pattern across multiple administrations. Recent developments include ongoing appropriations negotiations and the absence of prolonged standoffs that previously triggered brinkmanship. While the wisdom of crowds reflected in pricing shows high confidence, realistic scenarios that could alter the outcome include extended congressional gridlock during a future ceiling deadline, sharp revenue shortfalls from recession, or unexpected legal constraints on Treasury operations that compress the timeline for resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$16,315समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97.4% probability that the United States will avoid default on its debt obligations by 2027, driven by repeated congressional action to raise or suspend the debt ceiling ahead of Treasury borrowing limits. Bipartisan fiscal legislation, Treasury use of extraordinary measures, and institutional incentives to prevent market disruption have sustained this pattern across multiple administrations. Recent developments include ongoing appropriations negotiations and the absence of prolonged standoffs that previously triggered brinkmanship. While the wisdom of crowds reflected in pricing shows high confidence, realistic scenarios that could alter the outcome include extended congressional gridlock during a future ceiling deadline, sharp revenue shortfalls from recession, or unexpected legal constraints on Treasury operations that compress the timeline for resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
वॉल्यूम
$16,315समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97.4% probability that the United States will avoid default on its debt obligations by 2027, driven by repeated congressional action to raise or suspend the debt ceiling ahead of Treasury borrowing limits. Bipartisan fiscal legislation, Treasury use of extraordinary measures, and institutional incentives to prevent market disruption have sustained this pattern across multiple administrations. Recent developments include ongoing appropriations negotiations and the absence of prolonged standoffs that previously triggered brinkmanship. While the wisdom of crowds reflected in pricing shows high confidence, realistic scenarios that could alter the outcome include extended congressional gridlock during a future ceiling deadline, sharp revenue shortfalls from recession, or unexpected legal constraints on Treasury operations that compress the timeline for resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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