Trader consensus prices a 95.5% implied probability against a US debt default by end-2027, anchored by Congress's July 2025 increase of the debt ceiling by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, providing substantial headroom as national debt stands near $39 trillion in April 2026. This reflects the bipartisan political imperative to avoid catastrophic economic fallout, with over a century of precedent for raising or suspending the limit—78 times since 1960—without default, often via reconciliation or continuing resolutions. Recent partial government shutdowns in early 2026 over Department of Homeland Security appropriations resolved without debt limit impasses. Realistic shifts could arise from post-2026 midterm gridlock delaying action as debt nears the limit late 2027, unforeseen spending surges, or rapid deficit growth exceeding projections.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या अमेरिका 2027 तक कर्ज चुकाने में चूक कर सकता है?
क्या अमेरिका 2027 तक कर्ज चुकाने में चूक कर सकता है?
हाँ
$14,748 वॉल्यूम
$14,748 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$14,748 वॉल्यूम
$14,748 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Trader consensus prices a 95.5% implied probability against a US debt default by end-2027, anchored by Congress's July 2025 increase of the debt ceiling by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, providing substantial headroom as national debt stands near $39 trillion in April 2026. This reflects the bipartisan political imperative to avoid catastrophic economic fallout, with over a century of precedent for raising or suspending the limit—78 times since 1960—without default, often via reconciliation or continuing resolutions. Recent partial government shutdowns in early 2026 over Department of Homeland Security appropriations resolved without debt limit impasses. Realistic shifts could arise from post-2026 midterm gridlock delaying action as debt nears the limit late 2027, unforeseen spending surges, or rapid deficit growth exceeding projections.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$14,748समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Trader consensus prices a 95.5% implied probability against a US debt default by end-2027, anchored by Congress's July 2025 increase of the debt ceiling by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, providing substantial headroom as national debt stands near $39 trillion in April 2026. This reflects the bipartisan political imperative to avoid catastrophic economic fallout, with over a century of precedent for raising or suspending the limit—78 times since 1960—without default, often via reconciliation or continuing resolutions. Recent partial government shutdowns in early 2026 over Department of Homeland Security appropriations resolved without debt limit impasses. Realistic shifts could arise from post-2026 midterm gridlock delaying action as debt nears the limit late 2027, unforeseen spending surges, or rapid deficit growth exceeding projections.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
वॉल्यूम
$14,748समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 95.5% implied probability against a US debt default by end-2027, anchored by Congress's July 2025 increase of the debt ceiling by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, providing substantial headroom as national debt stands near $39 trillion in April 2026. This reflects the bipartisan political imperative to avoid catastrophic economic fallout, with over a century of precedent for raising or suspending the limit—78 times since 1960—without default, often via reconciliation or continuing resolutions. Recent partial government shutdowns in early 2026 over Department of Homeland Security appropriations resolved without debt limit impasses. Realistic shifts could arise from post-2026 midterm gridlock delaying action as debt nears the limit late 2027, unforeseen spending surges, or rapid deficit growth exceeding projections.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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