Former U.S. Rep. Ben McAdams leads trader consensus at 74% implied probability to win Utah's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on June 23, reflecting his dominant position in the late-March Data for Progress poll (36% to state Sen. Nate Blouin's 23% among likely voters) and strong fundraising ($580,000 raised in Q1 with $815,000 cash on hand). State Sen. Kathleen Riebe's April 11 dropout at the Salt Lake County Democratic convention—endorsing McAdams as a unifying leader over the "volatile" Blouin, whom she accused of prioritizing tweets over results—further consolidated moderate support, with Riebe now advising his campaign. Escalating attacks between the campaigns at county events underscore an ideological split, with McAdams emphasizing bipartisanship and Blouin progressive credentials, ahead of the pivotal April 25 state convention where delegates could influence endorsements and momentum in this signature-qualified race.