Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Anthropic at 45.5% implied probability for the second-best AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's recent dominance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with Elo scores near 1500, outpacing rivals in coding and reasoning benchmarks as of early April. Google trails at 27% following Gemini 3.1 Pro's strong showings in agentic tasks and multimodal capabilities, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 sits lower at 8.2% amid tighter competition from DeepSeek's V4 and xAI's Grok iterations. The narrow gaps highlighted in Stanford's April AI Index—under 3% between top models—fuel uncertainty, with traders eyeing Q2 releases like potential Claude 5 or Gemini updates as key catalysts that could shuffle rankings before resolution via standard leaderboards.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाएंथ्रॉपिक 46%
गूगल 27%
ओपनएआई 8.9%
DeepSeek 7.4%
$346,347 वॉल्यूम
$346,347 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
एंथ्रॉपिक
46%
गूगल
27%
ओपनएआई
9%
DeepSeek
7%
xAI
6%
अमेज़न
2%
अलीबाबा
2%
ByteDance
2%
Z.ai
1%
मूनशॉट
1%
Baidu
1%
Meituan
<1%
मेटा
<1%
मिस्त्राल
<1%
माइक्रोसॉफ्ट
<1%
एंथ्रॉपिक 46%
गूगल 27%
ओपनएआई 8.9%
DeepSeek 7.4%
$346,347 वॉल्यूम
$346,347 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
एंथ्रॉपिक
$6,559 वॉल्यूम
46%
गूगल
$3,177 वॉल्यूम
27%
ओपनएआई
$31,680 वॉल्यूम
9%
DeepSeek
$245,778 वॉल्यूम
7%
xAI
$11,911 वॉल्यूम
6%
अमेज़न
$672 वॉल्यूम
2%
अलीबाबा
$3,351 वॉल्यूम
2%
ByteDance
$283 वॉल्यूम
2%
Z.ai
$5,534 वॉल्यूम
1%
मूनशॉट
$3,000 वॉल्यूम
1%
Baidu
$228 वॉल्यूम
1%
Meituan
$32,044 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मेटा
$273 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मिस्त्राल
$1,532 वॉल्यूम
<1%
माइक्रोसॉफ्ट
$325 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Anthropic at 45.5% implied probability for the second-best AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's recent dominance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with Elo scores near 1500, outpacing rivals in coding and reasoning benchmarks as of early April. Google trails at 27% following Gemini 3.1 Pro's strong showings in agentic tasks and multimodal capabilities, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 sits lower at 8.2% amid tighter competition from DeepSeek's V4 and xAI's Grok iterations. The narrow gaps highlighted in Stanford's April AI Index—under 3% between top models—fuel uncertainty, with traders eyeing Q2 releases like potential Claude 5 or Gemini updates as key catalysts that could shuffle rankings before resolution via standard leaderboards.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
बाज़ार खुला: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$346,347समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Anthropic at 45.5% implied probability for the second-best AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's recent dominance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with Elo scores near 1500, outpacing rivals in coding and reasoning benchmarks as of early April. Google trails at 27% following Gemini 3.1 Pro's strong showings in agentic tasks and multimodal capabilities, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 sits lower at 8.2% amid tighter competition from DeepSeek's V4 and xAI's Grok iterations. The narrow gaps highlighted in Stanford's April AI Index—under 3% between top models—fuel uncertainty, with traders eyeing Q2 releases like potential Claude 5 or Gemini updates as key catalysts that could shuffle rankings before resolution via standard leaderboards.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
वॉल्यूम
$346,347समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Anthropic at 45.5% implied probability for the second-best AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's recent dominance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with Elo scores near 1500, outpacing rivals in coding and reasoning benchmarks as of early April. Google trails at 27% following Gemini 3.1 Pro's strong showings in agentic tasks and multimodal capabilities, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 sits lower at 8.2% amid tighter competition from DeepSeek's V4 and xAI's Grok iterations. The narrow gaps highlighted in Stanford's April AI Index—under 3% between top models—fuel uncertainty, with traders eyeing Q2 releases like potential Claude 5 or Gemini updates as key catalysts that could shuffle rankings before resolution via standard leaderboards.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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