Trump’s February 2026 public calls for Republicans to “nationalize the voting” in up to 15 states triggered brief market attention but produced no structural shift in election administration. The Constitution’s Elections Clause reserves primary authority over the times, places, and manner of federal elections to state legislatures, with Congress holding alteration power and the executive limited to enforcing statutes already passed. Subsequent executive orders seeking proof-of-citizenship rules, mail-ballot restrictions, and federal oversight of voter rolls have been blocked or narrowed by multiple federal courts, while related DOJ lawsuits against states have seen widespread dismissals. Ongoing administration steps—such as DHS citizenship lists and Postal Service changes—face active litigation and state pushback, underscoring the decentralized system of over 8,000 local jurisdictions. Traders assign 95.5 percent probability to “No” because these constitutional, legal, and practical barriers have so far prevented any effective federal takeover ahead of the 2026 midterms; outcomes could still shift only through congressional passage of legislation like the SAVE Act, a favorable Supreme Court ruling, or new executive actions that survive judicial review.