Recent model releases have intensified competition for the #2 AI lab position by late October, with Google's Gemini 3.7 Flash update on August 13, xAI's Grok 4.6, and Chinese labs like DeepSeek and Zhipu AI's GLM-5.3 narrowing capability gaps on benchmarks. Market-implied odds reflect this tight race, driven by rapid iteration in large language models, multimodal features, and agentic workflows alongside strong revenue trajectories for OpenAI and Anthropic. Google benefits from compute and data scale, while Meta and others gain from open-weight strategies and enterprise adoption. Traders weigh these against historical release timelines and the potential for surprise announcements to shift positioning before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiMeta 36%
Google 26%
OpenAI 15%
Anthropic 13%
BARU
BARU
Oct 31, 2026
Meta
36%
26%
OpenAI
15%
Anthropic
13%
Alibaba
14%
Z.ai
3%
Moonshot
3%
SpaceXAI
7%
DeepSeek
2%
ByteDance
2%
Meituan
2%
Xiaomi
1%
Thinky
1%
Amazon
1%
Tencent
1%
Microsoft
1%
MiniMax
1%
Nvidia
1%
StepFun
1%
Baidu
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meta 36%
Google 26%
OpenAI 15%
Anthropic 13%
BARU
BARU
Oct 31, 2026
Meta
$467 Vol.
36%
$2,877 Vol.
26%
OpenAI
$602 Vol.
15%
Anthropic
$393 Vol.
13%
Alibaba
$272 Vol.
14%
Z.ai
$249 Vol.
3%
Moonshot
$119 Vol.
3%
SpaceXAI
$287 Vol.
7%
DeepSeek
$107 Vol.
2%
ByteDance
$259 Vol.
2%
Meituan
$144 Vol.
2%
Xiaomi
$249 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$319 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$258 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$296 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$301 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$278 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$271 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$310 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$219 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$278 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have intensified competition for the #2 AI lab position by late October, with Google's Gemini 3.7 Flash update on August 13, xAI's Grok 4.6, and Chinese labs like DeepSeek and Zhipu AI's GLM-5.3 narrowing capability gaps on benchmarks. Market-implied odds reflect this tight race, driven by rapid iteration in large language models, multimodal features, and agentic workflows alongside strong revenue trajectories for OpenAI and Anthropic. Google benefits from compute and data scale, while Meta and others gain from open-weight strategies and enterprise adoption. Traders weigh these against historical release timelines and the potential for surprise announcements to shift positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$8,558Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have intensified competition for the #2 AI lab position by late October, with Google's Gemini 3.7 Flash update on August 13, xAI's Grok 4.6, and Chinese labs like DeepSeek and Zhipu AI's GLM-5.3 narrowing capability gaps on benchmarks. Market-implied odds reflect this tight race, driven by rapid iteration in large language models, multimodal features, and agentic workflows alongside strong revenue trajectories for OpenAI and Anthropic. Google benefits from compute and data scale, while Meta and others gain from open-weight strategies and enterprise adoption. Traders weigh these against historical release timelines and the potential for surprise announcements to shift positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$8,558Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model releases have intensified competition for the #2 AI lab position by late October, with Google's Gemini 3.7 Flash update on August 13, xAI's Grok 4.6, and Chinese labs like DeepSeek and Zhipu AI's GLM-5.3 narrowing capability gaps on benchmarks. Market-implied odds reflect this tight race, driven by rapid iteration in large language models, multimodal features, and agentic workflows alongside strong revenue trajectories for OpenAI and Anthropic. Google benefits from compute and data scale, while Meta and others gain from open-weight strategies and enterprise adoption. Traders weigh these against historical release timelines and the potential for surprise announcements to shift positioning before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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