Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon maintains a commanding position in California's 12th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, where trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability of victory. The seat's Cook Partisan Voter Index exceeds D+35, reflecting consistent heavy Democratic performance in recent presidential and Senate contests. Simon's fundraising edge and primary filings reinforce this outlook, while the sole Republican entrant appears only as a write-in with limited viability in the June 2 top-two primary. Structural factors such as voter registration patterns and the absence of competitive opposition limit crossover potential. Late developments including a major scandal, health issue for the incumbent, or significant national political shift could introduce uncertainty, though the district's baseline partisan composition creates substantial barriers to any Republican outcome.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiCA-12 House Election Winner
CA-12 House Election Winner
$37,355 Vol.
$37,355 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
5%
$37,355 Vol.
$37,355 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$23,142 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$14,212 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon maintains a commanding position in California's 12th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, where trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability of victory. The seat's Cook Partisan Voter Index exceeds D+35, reflecting consistent heavy Democratic performance in recent presidential and Senate contests. Simon's fundraising edge and primary filings reinforce this outlook, while the sole Republican entrant appears only as a write-in with limited viability in the June 2 top-two primary. Structural factors such as voter registration patterns and the absence of competitive opposition limit crossover potential. Late developments including a major scandal, health issue for the incumbent, or significant national political shift could introduce uncertainty, though the district's baseline partisan composition creates substantial barriers to any Republican outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$37,355Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon maintains a commanding position in California's 12th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, where trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability of victory. The seat's Cook Partisan Voter Index exceeds D+35, reflecting consistent heavy Democratic performance in recent presidential and Senate contests. Simon's fundraising edge and primary filings reinforce this outlook, while the sole Republican entrant appears only as a write-in with limited viability in the June 2 top-two primary. Structural factors such as voter registration patterns and the absence of competitive opposition limit crossover potential. Late developments including a major scandal, health issue for the incumbent, or significant national political shift could introduce uncertainty, though the district's baseline partisan composition creates substantial barriers to any Republican outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$37,355Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon maintains a commanding position in California's 12th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, where trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability of victory. The seat's Cook Partisan Voter Index exceeds D+35, reflecting consistent heavy Democratic performance in recent presidential and Senate contests. Simon's fundraising edge and primary filings reinforce this outlook, while the sole Republican entrant appears only as a write-in with limited viability in the June 2 top-two primary. Structural factors such as voter registration patterns and the absence of competitive opposition limit crossover potential. Late developments including a major scandal, health issue for the incumbent, or significant national political shift could introduce uncertainty, though the district's baseline partisan composition creates substantial barriers to any Republican outcome.
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