The district’s deep Democratic lean, reflected in voter registration and a Cook Partisan Voting Index exceeding D+35, anchors trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Nancy Pelosi’s retirement opened the June 2 top-two primary to eight Democratic contenders, including state Senator Scott Wiener, who holds the California Democratic Party endorsement and leads recent polling, alongside Saikat Chakrabarti and Connie Chan. Two Republicans and one independent remain marginal in fundraising and visibility. Historical patterns in similarly safe seats show minimal crossover success for the minority party. Only an unprecedented primary outcome advancing a Republican or a major late scandal altering turnout could realistically shift the general-election dynamics.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiCA-11 House Election Winner
CA-11 House Election Winner
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$3,127 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$921 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district’s deep Democratic lean, reflected in voter registration and a Cook Partisan Voting Index exceeding D+35, anchors trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Nancy Pelosi’s retirement opened the June 2 top-two primary to eight Democratic contenders, including state Senator Scott Wiener, who holds the California Democratic Party endorsement and leads recent polling, alongside Saikat Chakrabarti and Connie Chan. Two Republicans and one independent remain marginal in fundraising and visibility. Historical patterns in similarly safe seats show minimal crossover success for the minority party. Only an unprecedented primary outcome advancing a Republican or a major late scandal altering turnout could realistically shift the general-election dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$4,048Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district’s deep Democratic lean, reflected in voter registration and a Cook Partisan Voting Index exceeding D+35, anchors trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Nancy Pelosi’s retirement opened the June 2 top-two primary to eight Democratic contenders, including state Senator Scott Wiener, who holds the California Democratic Party endorsement and leads recent polling, alongside Saikat Chakrabarti and Connie Chan. Two Republicans and one independent remain marginal in fundraising and visibility. Historical patterns in similarly safe seats show minimal crossover success for the minority party. Only an unprecedented primary outcome advancing a Republican or a major late scandal altering turnout could realistically shift the general-election dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$4,048Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district’s deep Democratic lean, reflected in voter registration and a Cook Partisan Voting Index exceeding D+35, anchors trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Nancy Pelosi’s retirement opened the June 2 top-two primary to eight Democratic contenders, including state Senator Scott Wiener, who holds the California Democratic Party endorsement and leads recent polling, alongside Saikat Chakrabarti and Connie Chan. Two Republicans and one independent remain marginal in fundraising and visibility. Historical patterns in similarly safe seats show minimal crossover success for the minority party. Only an unprecedented primary outcome advancing a Republican or a major late scandal altering turnout could realistically shift the general-election dynamics.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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