South Dakota's at-large congressional district has delivered Republican victories in every House election since 2008, a pattern reinforced by the state's conservative electorate, low Democratic registration, and consistent statewide results. With incumbent Dusty Johnson pursuing the governorship, Republican nominee Marty Jackley secured the nomination in the June primary by a wide margin, while Democrat Nicole Gronli advanced unopposed. Forecasters rate the November contest as solidly Republican. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Republican nominee reflects these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling or major shifts. A significant Republican scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic performance could narrow the margin, though historical base rates indicate limited pathways for an upset.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiSD-AL House Election Winner
SD-AL House Election Winner
$31,616 Vol.
$31,616 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
4%
$31,616 Vol.
$31,616 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$23,928 Vol.
95%
Democratic Party
$7,688 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota's at-large congressional district has delivered Republican victories in every House election since 2008, a pattern reinforced by the state's conservative electorate, low Democratic registration, and consistent statewide results. With incumbent Dusty Johnson pursuing the governorship, Republican nominee Marty Jackley secured the nomination in the June primary by a wide margin, while Democrat Nicole Gronli advanced unopposed. Forecasters rate the November contest as solidly Republican. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Republican nominee reflects these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling or major shifts. A significant Republican scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic performance could narrow the margin, though historical base rates indicate limited pathways for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$31,616Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota's at-large congressional district has delivered Republican victories in every House election since 2008, a pattern reinforced by the state's conservative electorate, low Democratic registration, and consistent statewide results. With incumbent Dusty Johnson pursuing the governorship, Republican nominee Marty Jackley secured the nomination in the June primary by a wide margin, while Democrat Nicole Gronli advanced unopposed. Forecasters rate the November contest as solidly Republican. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Republican nominee reflects these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling or major shifts. A significant Republican scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic performance could narrow the margin, though historical base rates indicate limited pathways for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$31,616Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...South Dakota's at-large congressional district has delivered Republican victories in every House election since 2008, a pattern reinforced by the state's conservative electorate, low Democratic registration, and consistent statewide results. With incumbent Dusty Johnson pursuing the governorship, Republican nominee Marty Jackley secured the nomination in the June primary by a wide margin, while Democrat Nicole Gronli advanced unopposed. Forecasters rate the November contest as solidly Republican. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Republican nominee reflects these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling or major shifts. A significant Republican scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic performance could narrow the margin, though historical base rates indicate limited pathways for an upset.
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