Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding position in California's 24th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat's D+13 partisan voter index and his 62.7% victory in 2024. The June 2 top-two primary confirmed this edge, with Carbajal securing 54.4% against Republican Bob Smith at 35.9%, while multiple forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic. Carbajal's substantial fundraising advantage and established voter base in a district spanning Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Ventura counties underpin trader consensus on the Democratic outcome. A late scandal, health event, or dramatic national partisan swing could theoretically narrow the gap, though structural and historical patterns make such shifts improbable in the remaining campaign window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiCA-24 House Election Winner
CA-24 House Election Winner
$50,498 Vol.
$50,498 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
98%
Republican Party
2%
$50,498 Vol.
$50,498 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$32,263 Vol.
98%
Republican Party
$18,234 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding position in California's 24th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat's D+13 partisan voter index and his 62.7% victory in 2024. The June 2 top-two primary confirmed this edge, with Carbajal securing 54.4% against Republican Bob Smith at 35.9%, while multiple forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic. Carbajal's substantial fundraising advantage and established voter base in a district spanning Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Ventura counties underpin trader consensus on the Democratic outcome. A late scandal, health event, or dramatic national partisan swing could theoretically narrow the gap, though structural and historical patterns make such shifts improbable in the remaining campaign window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$50,498Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding position in California's 24th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat's D+13 partisan voter index and his 62.7% victory in 2024. The June 2 top-two primary confirmed this edge, with Carbajal securing 54.4% against Republican Bob Smith at 35.9%, while multiple forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic. Carbajal's substantial fundraising advantage and established voter base in a district spanning Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Ventura counties underpin trader consensus on the Democratic outcome. A late scandal, health event, or dramatic national partisan swing could theoretically narrow the gap, though structural and historical patterns make such shifts improbable in the remaining campaign window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$50,498Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding position in California's 24th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat's D+13 partisan voter index and his 62.7% victory in 2024. The June 2 top-two primary confirmed this edge, with Carbajal securing 54.4% against Republican Bob Smith at 35.9%, while multiple forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic. Carbajal's substantial fundraising advantage and established voter base in a district spanning Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Ventura counties underpin trader consensus on the Democratic outcome. A late scandal, health event, or dramatic national partisan swing could theoretically narrow the gap, though structural and historical patterns make such shifts improbable in the remaining campaign window.
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