Xi Jinping’s continued consolidation of power through repeated military and party purges, including the February 2026 expulsion of senior generals and NPC deputies, has reinforced centralized authority and removed potential sources of organized opposition within the People’s Liberation Army and elite circles. Traders view this pattern, combined with pervasive surveillance, loyalty requirements, and the absence of visible factional networks capable of coordinated action, as sustaining low risk of a coup attempt through 2026. Historical precedent of CCP stability under strongman leadership further supports the 97% implied probability on “No.” While a sudden leadership health event or unforeseen external crisis could theoretically shift conditions, no verifiable developments in recent months indicate such vulnerabilities emerging before the market’s 2027 cutoff.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$153,494 Vol.
$153,494 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$153,494 Vol.
$153,494 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s continued consolidation of power through repeated military and party purges, including the February 2026 expulsion of senior generals and NPC deputies, has reinforced centralized authority and removed potential sources of organized opposition within the People’s Liberation Army and elite circles. Traders view this pattern, combined with pervasive surveillance, loyalty requirements, and the absence of visible factional networks capable of coordinated action, as sustaining low risk of a coup attempt through 2026. Historical precedent of CCP stability under strongman leadership further supports the 97% implied probability on “No.” While a sudden leadership health event or unforeseen external crisis could theoretically shift conditions, no verifiable developments in recent months indicate such vulnerabilities emerging before the market’s 2027 cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$153,494Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s continued consolidation of power through repeated military and party purges, including the February 2026 expulsion of senior generals and NPC deputies, has reinforced centralized authority and removed potential sources of organized opposition within the People’s Liberation Army and elite circles. Traders view this pattern, combined with pervasive surveillance, loyalty requirements, and the absence of visible factional networks capable of coordinated action, as sustaining low risk of a coup attempt through 2026. Historical precedent of CCP stability under strongman leadership further supports the 97% implied probability on “No.” While a sudden leadership health event or unforeseen external crisis could theoretically shift conditions, no verifiable developments in recent months indicate such vulnerabilities emerging before the market’s 2027 cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$153,494Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s continued consolidation of power through repeated military and party purges, including the February 2026 expulsion of senior generals and NPC deputies, has reinforced centralized authority and removed potential sources of organized opposition within the People’s Liberation Army and elite circles. Traders view this pattern, combined with pervasive surveillance, loyalty requirements, and the absence of visible factional networks capable of coordinated action, as sustaining low risk of a coup attempt through 2026. Historical precedent of CCP stability under strongman leadership further supports the 97% implied probability on “No.” While a sudden leadership health event or unforeseen external crisis could theoretically shift conditions, no verifiable developments in recent months indicate such vulnerabilities emerging before the market’s 2027 cutoff.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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