Traders assign "No" a 93.6% implied probability on the Elon Bull Run Combo because all three legs—Elon Musk reaching $1 trillion net worth on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, confirmation of another child, and nine or more SpaceX Starship launches reaching space—must align by December 31, 2026. The Starship program faces the steepest barrier, with zero qualifying flights so far amid ongoing Block 3 testing delays and a required cadence that has not materialized in prior years. Musk’s current valuation near $630–650 billion would also need an unprecedented surge through Tesla, xAI, or related assets within months. While a rapid Starship turnaround, major IPO catalyst, or personal announcement could still shift odds, the narrow remaining window and independent hurdles sustain strong consensus against the full parlay resolving Yes.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui6% peluang
$12,423 Vol.
$12,423 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
6% peluang
$12,423 Vol.
$12,423 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdfTraders assign "No" a 93.6% implied probability on the Elon Bull Run Combo because all three legs—Elon Musk reaching $1 trillion net worth on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, confirmation of another child, and nine or more SpaceX Starship launches reaching space—must align by December 31, 2026. The Starship program faces the steepest barrier, with zero qualifying flights so far amid ongoing Block 3 testing delays and a required cadence that has not materialized in prior years. Musk’s current valuation near $630–650 billion would also need an unprecedented surge through Tesla, xAI, or related assets within months. While a rapid Starship turnaround, major IPO catalyst, or personal announcement could still shift odds, the narrow remaining window and independent hurdles sustain strong consensus against the full parlay resolving Yes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
Pasar Dibuka: Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$12,423Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdfTraders assign "No" a 93.6% implied probability on the Elon Bull Run Combo because all three legs—Elon Musk reaching $1 trillion net worth on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, confirmation of another child, and nine or more SpaceX Starship launches reaching space—must align by December 31, 2026. The Starship program faces the steepest barrier, with zero qualifying flights so far amid ongoing Block 3 testing delays and a required cadence that has not materialized in prior years. Musk’s current valuation near $630–650 billion would also need an unprecedented surge through Tesla, xAI, or related assets within months. While a rapid Starship turnaround, major IPO catalyst, or personal announcement could still shift odds, the narrow remaining window and independent hurdles sustain strong consensus against the full parlay resolving Yes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
Volume
$12,423Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign "No" a 93.6% implied probability on the Elon Bull Run Combo because all three legs—Elon Musk reaching $1 trillion net worth on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, confirmation of another child, and nine or more SpaceX Starship launches reaching space—must align by December 31, 2026. The Starship program faces the steepest barrier, with zero qualifying flights so far amid ongoing Block 3 testing delays and a required cadence that has not materialized in prior years. Musk’s current valuation near $630–650 billion would also need an unprecedented surge through Tesla, xAI, or related assets within months. While a rapid Starship turnaround, major IPO catalyst, or personal announcement could still shift odds, the narrow remaining window and independent hurdles sustain strong consensus against the full parlay resolving Yes.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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