The SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026, at a roughly $1.8 trillion valuation supplied the decisive catalyst, instantly lifting Elon Musk’s majority stake above $800 billion and combining with his Tesla holdings near $1.1 trillion per Forbes and Bloomberg data. Traders assign 100% implied probability because the threshold has already been crossed with verified public-market pricing, sustained Tesla market capitalization above $1.4 trillion, and limited near-term reversal risk before year-end. While post-IPO volatility in SpaceX or Tesla shares, regulatory scrutiny of concentrated founder ownership, or broader market corrections could compress valuations, the scale of combined positions and the “at any point” resolution criteria make a sustained drop below $1 trillion improbable.