Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Austin on September 12 points to a mostly sunny day with highs near 100°F under southerly flow and minimal cloud cover, supporting the market’s leading 100-101°F bin at 35% implied probability. Persistent high pressure and above-normal seasonal temperatures—driven by strong solar insolation, low precipitation chances, and warm advection—favor peak readings in the upper 90s to low 100s rather than the 92°F historical average. Minor differences among runs hinge on exact afternoon mixing depth and any thin high clouds that could trim the maximum by 1–2°F, keeping the 102–103°F outcome at 25.5% viable while lower bins reflect downside risks from unexpected moisture or wind shifts. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through Friday will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Austin on September 12?
Highest temperature in Austin on September 12?
100-101°F 50%
102-103°F 25%
96-97°F 19%
98-99°F 19%
BARU
BARU
Sep 12, 2026
91°F or below
3%
92-93°F
7%
94-95°F
13%
96-97°F
19%
98-99°F
19%
100-101°F
50%
102-103°F
25%
104-105°F
12%
106-107°F
9%
108-109°F
10%
110°F or higher
2%
100-101°F 50%
102-103°F 25%
96-97°F 19%
98-99°F 19%
BARU
BARU
Sep 12, 2026
91°F or below
$0 Vol.
3%
92-93°F
$0 Vol.
7%
94-95°F
$0 Vol.
13%
96-97°F
$0 Vol.
19%
98-99°F
$0 Vol.
19%
100-101°F
$814 Vol.
50%
102-103°F
$0 Vol.
25%
104-105°F
$6 Vol.
12%
106-107°F
$0 Vol.
9%
108-109°F
$0 Vol.
10%
110°F or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Austin on September 12 points to a mostly sunny day with highs near 100°F under southerly flow and minimal cloud cover, supporting the market’s leading 100-101°F bin at 35% implied probability. Persistent high pressure and above-normal seasonal temperatures—driven by strong solar insolation, low precipitation chances, and warm advection—favor peak readings in the upper 90s to low 100s rather than the 92°F historical average. Minor differences among runs hinge on exact afternoon mixing depth and any thin high clouds that could trim the maximum by 1–2°F, keeping the 102–103°F outcome at 25.5% viable while lower bins reflect downside risks from unexpected moisture or wind shifts. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through Friday will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 10, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$820Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 12, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 10, 2026, 3:56 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Austin on September 12 points to a mostly sunny day with highs near 100°F under southerly flow and minimal cloud cover, supporting the market’s leading 100-101°F bin at 35% implied probability. Persistent high pressure and above-normal seasonal temperatures—driven by strong solar insolation, low precipitation chances, and warm advection—favor peak readings in the upper 90s to low 100s rather than the 92°F historical average. Minor differences among runs hinge on exact afternoon mixing depth and any thin high clouds that could trim the maximum by 1–2°F, keeping the 102–103°F outcome at 25.5% viable while lower bins reflect downside risks from unexpected moisture or wind shifts. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through Friday will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$820Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 12, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 10, 2026, 3:56 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Austin on September 12 points to a mostly sunny day with highs near 100°F under southerly flow and minimal cloud cover, supporting the market’s leading 100-101°F bin at 35% implied probability. Persistent high pressure and above-normal seasonal temperatures—driven by strong solar insolation, low precipitation chances, and warm advection—favor peak readings in the upper 90s to low 100s rather than the 92°F historical average. Minor differences among runs hinge on exact afternoon mixing depth and any thin high clouds that could trim the maximum by 1–2°F, keeping the 102–103°F outcome at 25.5% viable while lower bins reflect downside risks from unexpected moisture or wind shifts. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through Friday will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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