**Current forecasts under the active southwest monsoon point to maximum temperatures of 30–32°C in Manila on September 1, supporting the market's concentration of implied probability around those levels.** Persistent cloud cover, scattered to moderate rains, and enhanced Habagat flow—following late-August flooding and a developing low-pressure area east of Luzon—limit daytime heating and align with PAGASA's near-average temperature signals for western Luzon. Multiple model runs cluster daily highs near the 28.7–30°C early-September climatological baseline, with limited upside potential absent a rapid monsoon break. Traders appear to weigh the high likelihood of continued moisture and reduced insolation against normal variability in short-range guidance, keeping outcomes above 33°C or below 30°C at low implied probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Manila on September 1?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 1?
32°C 38%
31°C 27%
34°C 19%
33°C 19%
BARU
BARU
Sep 1, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
3%
30°C
12%
31°C
27%
32°C
38%
33°C
19%
34°C
19%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 38%
31°C 27%
34°C 19%
33°C 19%
BARU
BARU
Sep 1, 2026
26°C or below
$223 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$0 Vol.
1%
29°C
$31 Vol.
3%
30°C
$33 Vol.
12%
31°C
$57 Vol.
27%
32°C
$59 Vol.
38%
33°C
$0 Vol.
19%
34°C
$0 Vol.
19%
35°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$121 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts under the active southwest monsoon point to maximum temperatures of 30–32°C in Manila on September 1, supporting the market's concentration of implied probability around those levels.** Persistent cloud cover, scattered to moderate rains, and enhanced Habagat flow—following late-August flooding and a developing low-pressure area east of Luzon—limit daytime heating and align with PAGASA's near-average temperature signals for western Luzon. Multiple model runs cluster daily highs near the 28.7–30°C early-September climatological baseline, with limited upside potential absent a rapid monsoon break. Traders appear to weigh the high likelihood of continued moisture and reduced insolation against normal variability in short-range guidance, keeping outcomes above 33°C or below 30°C at low implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 30, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$524Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 30, 2026, 12:58 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts under the active southwest monsoon point to maximum temperatures of 30–32°C in Manila on September 1, supporting the market's concentration of implied probability around those levels.** Persistent cloud cover, scattered to moderate rains, and enhanced Habagat flow—following late-August flooding and a developing low-pressure area east of Luzon—limit daytime heating and align with PAGASA's near-average temperature signals for western Luzon. Multiple model runs cluster daily highs near the 28.7–30°C early-September climatological baseline, with limited upside potential absent a rapid monsoon break. Traders appear to weigh the high likelihood of continued moisture and reduced insolation against normal variability in short-range guidance, keeping outcomes above 33°C or below 30°C at low implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$524Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 30, 2026, 12:58 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts under the active southwest monsoon point to maximum temperatures of 30–32°C in Manila on September 1, supporting the market's concentration of implied probability around those levels.** Persistent cloud cover, scattered to moderate rains, and enhanced Habagat flow—following late-August flooding and a developing low-pressure area east of Luzon—limit daytime heating and align with PAGASA's near-average temperature signals for western Luzon. Multiple model runs cluster daily highs near the 28.7–30°C early-September climatological baseline, with limited upside potential absent a rapid monsoon break. Traders appear to weigh the high likelihood of continued moisture and reduced insolation against normal variability in short-range guidance, keeping outcomes above 33°C or below 30°C at low implied probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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