Recent forecasts from multiple models, including ECMWF and GFS runs referenced in sources like CMA-aligned outlooks, indicate mostly sunny conditions with northeasterly winds of 3-4 Beaufort and stable high pressure over the Yellow Sea region, supporting a maximum temperature near 30°C for Qingdao on September 4. This consensus underpins the market's tight clustering around 30-32°C outcomes, as coastal sea breezes and low humidity (around 50-60%) typically moderate daytime peaks while clear skies allow full insolation. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind timing creates the observed uncertainty between 30°C and 32°C, with historical September averages near 26°C providing limited upward bias. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24-48 hours could refine these probabilities before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Qingdao on September 4?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on September 4?
31°C 38%
32°C 30%
30°C 15%
33°C 12%
BARU
BARU
Sep 4, 2026
26°C or below
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
7%
30°C
15%
31°C
38%
32°C
30%
33°C
12%
34°C
4%
35°C
6%
36°C or higher
4%
31°C 38%
32°C 30%
30°C 15%
33°C 12%
BARU
BARU
Sep 4, 2026
26°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
27°C
$19 Vol.
1%
28°C
$240 Vol.
3%
29°C
$360 Vol.
7%
30°C
$21 Vol.
15%
31°C
$41 Vol.
38%
32°C
$209 Vol.
30%
33°C
$9 Vol.
12%
34°C
$151 Vol.
4%
35°C
$32 Vol.
6%
36°C or higher
$31 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including ECMWF and GFS runs referenced in sources like CMA-aligned outlooks, indicate mostly sunny conditions with northeasterly winds of 3-4 Beaufort and stable high pressure over the Yellow Sea region, supporting a maximum temperature near 30°C for Qingdao on September 4. This consensus underpins the market's tight clustering around 30-32°C outcomes, as coastal sea breezes and low humidity (around 50-60%) typically moderate daytime peaks while clear skies allow full insolation. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind timing creates the observed uncertainty between 30°C and 32°C, with historical September averages near 26°C providing limited upward bias. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24-48 hours could refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$1,112Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including ECMWF and GFS runs referenced in sources like CMA-aligned outlooks, indicate mostly sunny conditions with northeasterly winds of 3-4 Beaufort and stable high pressure over the Yellow Sea region, supporting a maximum temperature near 30°C for Qingdao on September 4. This consensus underpins the market's tight clustering around 30-32°C outcomes, as coastal sea breezes and low humidity (around 50-60%) typically moderate daytime peaks while clear skies allow full insolation. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind timing creates the observed uncertainty between 30°C and 32°C, with historical September averages near 26°C providing limited upward bias. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24-48 hours could refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,112Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models, including ECMWF and GFS runs referenced in sources like CMA-aligned outlooks, indicate mostly sunny conditions with northeasterly winds of 3-4 Beaufort and stable high pressure over the Yellow Sea region, supporting a maximum temperature near 30°C for Qingdao on September 4. This consensus underpins the market's tight clustering around 30-32°C outcomes, as coastal sea breezes and low humidity (around 50-60%) typically moderate daytime peaks while clear skies allow full insolation. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind timing creates the observed uncertainty between 30°C and 32°C, with historical September averages near 26°C providing limited upward bias. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24-48 hours could refine these probabilities before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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