Recent ensemble and deterministic model runs from sources like ECMWF, GFS, and ICON-EU indicate a cool, moist westerly flow over central Europe, with persistent cloud cover and scattered showers expected to limit solar heating on September 25. This setup favors daytime maxima clustered around 14–16°C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied odds of 38% for 16°C and 36.5% for 15°C. Minor differences between those outcomes hinge on the exact timing and intensity of any breaks in cloud or rainfall, which could add or subtract 1°C from the peak. Historical September climatology for Warsaw shows average highs near 18°C, but the current synoptic pattern deviates cooler, with limited upside potential unless models shift toward greater clearing. Updated runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the spread ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 25?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 25?
15°C 39%
16°C 38%
14°C 16%
13°C 16%
BARU
BARU
Sep 25, 2026
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
4%
13°C
16%
14°C
16%
15°C
39%
16°C
38%
17°C
12%
18°C
8%
19°C
7%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
15°C 39%
16°C 38%
14°C 16%
13°C 16%
BARU
BARU
Sep 25, 2026
11°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$0 Vol.
4%
13°C
$0 Vol.
16%
14°C
$0 Vol.
16%
15°C
$0 Vol.
39%
16°C
$8 Vol.
38%
17°C
$0 Vol.
12%
18°C
$0 Vol.
8%
19°C
$60 Vol.
7%
20°C
$95 Vol.
<1%
21°C or higher
$256 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble and deterministic model runs from sources like ECMWF, GFS, and ICON-EU indicate a cool, moist westerly flow over central Europe, with persistent cloud cover and scattered showers expected to limit solar heating on September 25. This setup favors daytime maxima clustered around 14–16°C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied odds of 38% for 16°C and 36.5% for 15°C. Minor differences between those outcomes hinge on the exact timing and intensity of any breaks in cloud or rainfall, which could add or subtract 1°C from the peak. Historical September climatology for Warsaw shows average highs near 18°C, but the current synoptic pattern deviates cooler, with limited upside potential unless models shift toward greater clearing. Updated runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the spread ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$419Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 25, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble and deterministic model runs from sources like ECMWF, GFS, and ICON-EU indicate a cool, moist westerly flow over central Europe, with persistent cloud cover and scattered showers expected to limit solar heating on September 25. This setup favors daytime maxima clustered around 14–16°C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied odds of 38% for 16°C and 36.5% for 15°C. Minor differences between those outcomes hinge on the exact timing and intensity of any breaks in cloud or rainfall, which could add or subtract 1°C from the peak. Historical September climatology for Warsaw shows average highs near 18°C, but the current synoptic pattern deviates cooler, with limited upside potential unless models shift toward greater clearing. Updated runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the spread ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$419Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 25, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble and deterministic model runs from sources like ECMWF, GFS, and ICON-EU indicate a cool, moist westerly flow over central Europe, with persistent cloud cover and scattered showers expected to limit solar heating on September 25. This setup favors daytime maxima clustered around 14–16°C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied odds of 38% for 16°C and 36.5% for 15°C. Minor differences between those outcomes hinge on the exact timing and intensity of any breaks in cloud or rainfall, which could add or subtract 1°C from the peak. Historical September climatology for Warsaw shows average highs near 18°C, but the current synoptic pattern deviates cooler, with limited upside potential unless models shift toward greater clearing. Updated runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the spread ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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