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Ekonomi·Tarif Fed

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?

icon for How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?
Ekonomi·Tarif Fed

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?

BARU
Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$0.00 Vol.

Polymarket

5.60%

$0 Vol.

50%

5.55%

$0 Vol.

50%

5.50%

$0 Vol.

50%

5.45%

$0 Vol.

50%

5.42%

$0 Vol.

50%

5.39%

$0 Vol.

50%

5.36%

$0 Vol.

50%

5.33%

$0 Vol.

50%

5.30%

$0 Vol.

50%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Elevated 30-year Treasury yields near 5.26-5.27% reflect trader concerns over entrenched inflation, fueled by oil prices near $95 amid Middle East tensions and persistent fiscal deficits. Recent hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole and comments from officials like Governor Michael Barr have lifted expectations for a possible September rate hike, with market-implied odds fluctuating around 50-65%. The labor market remains stable with unemployment at 4.2% and solid job gains, while May PCE inflation stood at 4.1% headline and 3.4% core. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting, including updated economic projections, represents the key near-term catalyst that could shift rate expectations and long-end yields.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$0
Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Elevated 30-year Treasury yields near 5.26-5.27% reflect trader concerns over entrenched inflation, fueled by oil prices near $95 amid Middle East tensions and persistent fiscal deficits. Recent hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole and comments from officials like Governor Michael Barr have lifted expectations for a possible September rate hike, with market-implied odds fluctuating around 50-65%. The labor market remains stable with unemployment at 4.2% and solid job gains, while May PCE inflation stood at 4.1% headline and 3.4% core. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting, including updated economic projections, represents the key near-term catalyst that could shift rate expectations and long-end yields.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$0
Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Terkait

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Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.40% before 2027?

52%
icon for Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% in September?

Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% in September?

50%
icon for Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% before 2027?

Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% before 2027?

50%

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 9 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "5.60%" di 50%, diikuti oleh "5.55%" di 50%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 50¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 50% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Sep 2, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?," jelajahi 9 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?" adalah "5.60%" di 50%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 50% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "5.55%" di 50%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.