**Democratic House primaries in 2026 have produced an elevated number of incumbent defeats, with at least seven confirmed losses through late summer, driven primarily by progressive and democratic socialist challengers.** Key examples include New York races where Mamdani-backed candidates ousted Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat, alongside defeats for Reps. Diana DeGette in Colorado, Shri Thanedar in Michigan, and John Larson in Connecticut, often tied to generational turnover, criticism of corporate PAC ties, and positions on foreign policy such as Israel. Redistricting in Texas also contributed by forcing some incumbents into head-to-head contests. Trader consensus on 10-12 total losses reflects these trends plus expectations for a modest number of additional upsets in remaining contests, consistent with historical patterns where safe-seat Democratic primaries rarely exceed single-digit defeats absent major waves. Outcomes could shift higher if late primaries see further left-flank momentum or unexpected retirements amplifying challenges; lower totals remain possible if establishment candidates consolidate in the final races.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$53,725 Vol.
$53,725 Vol.
10-12
94%
13-15
4%
$53,725 Vol.
$53,725 Vol.
10-12
$11,418 Vol.
94%
13-15
$5,302 Vol.
4%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Democratic House primaries in 2026 have produced an elevated number of incumbent defeats, with at least seven confirmed losses through late summer, driven primarily by progressive and democratic socialist challengers.** Key examples include New York races where Mamdani-backed candidates ousted Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat, alongside defeats for Reps. Diana DeGette in Colorado, Shri Thanedar in Michigan, and John Larson in Connecticut, often tied to generational turnover, criticism of corporate PAC ties, and positions on foreign policy such as Israel. Redistricting in Texas also contributed by forcing some incumbents into head-to-head contests. Trader consensus on 10-12 total losses reflects these trends plus expectations for a modest number of additional upsets in remaining contests, consistent with historical patterns where safe-seat Democratic primaries rarely exceed single-digit defeats absent major waves. Outcomes could shift higher if late primaries see further left-flank momentum or unexpected retirements amplifying challenges; lower totals remain possible if establishment candidates consolidate in the final races.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
Volume
$53,725Pasar Dibuka
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Democratic House primaries in 2026 have produced an elevated number of incumbent defeats, with at least seven confirmed losses through late summer, driven primarily by progressive and democratic socialist challengers.** Key examples include New York races where Mamdani-backed candidates ousted Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat, alongside defeats for Reps. Diana DeGette in Colorado, Shri Thanedar in Michigan, and John Larson in Connecticut, often tied to generational turnover, criticism of corporate PAC ties, and positions on foreign policy such as Israel. Redistricting in Texas also contributed by forcing some incumbents into head-to-head contests. Trader consensus on 10-12 total losses reflects these trends plus expectations for a modest number of additional upsets in remaining contests, consistent with historical patterns where safe-seat Democratic primaries rarely exceed single-digit defeats absent major waves. Outcomes could shift higher if late primaries see further left-flank momentum or unexpected retirements amplifying challenges; lower totals remain possible if establishment candidates consolidate in the final races.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volume
$53,725Pasar Dibuka
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...**Democratic House primaries in 2026 have produced an elevated number of incumbent defeats, with at least seven confirmed losses through late summer, driven primarily by progressive and democratic socialist challengers.** Key examples include New York races where Mamdani-backed candidates ousted Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat, alongside defeats for Reps. Diana DeGette in Colorado, Shri Thanedar in Michigan, and John Larson in Connecticut, often tied to generational turnover, criticism of corporate PAC ties, and positions on foreign policy such as Israel. Redistricting in Texas also contributed by forcing some incumbents into head-to-head contests. Trader consensus on 10-12 total losses reflects these trends plus expectations for a modest number of additional upsets in remaining contests, consistent with historical patterns where safe-seat Democratic primaries rarely exceed single-digit defeats absent major waves. Outcomes could shift higher if late primaries see further left-flank momentum or unexpected retirements amplifying challenges; lower totals remain possible if establishment candidates consolidate in the final races.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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