**Persistent warm, humid conditions with elevated overnight lows are driving the market toward 80-83°F as the most likely range for Houston’s minimum temperature on September 3, 2026.** Official National Weather Service forecasts and multiple models (including recent runs) indicate lows in the upper 70s to low 80s under partly cloudy to overcast skies, southeast winds of 5-10 mph, and high dew points near 75°F that limit radiative cooling. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes of 80-81°F (40%) and 82-83°F (31%), reflecting trader consensus on the current warm pattern rather than climatological normals around 74-75°F. Thunderstorm chances (around 40-50%) and lingering moisture from the prior day further suppress cooling, keeping temperatures above historical early-September averages. Outlier probabilities for 90°F+ (27%) or sub-75°F (combined ~55% across lower bins) represent tail risks from unexpected model shifts, such as clearer skies or a timing change in convection. Key resolution factors include the exact overnight minimum reported by official stations, with new model guidance and NWS updates expected to refine probabilities before midnight.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Houston on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Houston on September 3?
90°F or higher 52%
80-81°F 50%
71°F or below 42%
82-83°F 31%
BARU
BARU
Sep 3, 2026
71°F or below
42%
72-73°F
8%
74-75°F
24%
76-77°F
27%
78-79°F
26%
80-81°F
41%
82-83°F
31%
84-85°F
5%
86-87°F
2%
88-89°F
5%
90°F or higher
52%
90°F or higher 52%
80-81°F 50%
71°F or below 42%
82-83°F 31%
BARU
BARU
Sep 3, 2026
71°F or below
$20 Vol.
42%
72-73°F
$20 Vol.
8%
74-75°F
$10 Vol.
24%
76-77°F
$10 Vol.
27%
78-79°F
$16 Vol.
26%
80-81°F
$28 Vol.
41%
82-83°F
$10 Vol.
31%
84-85°F
$10 Vol.
5%
86-87°F
$90 Vol.
2%
88-89°F
$10 Vol.
5%
90°F or higher
$10 Vol.
52%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent warm, humid conditions with elevated overnight lows are driving the market toward 80-83°F as the most likely range for Houston’s minimum temperature on September 3, 2026.** Official National Weather Service forecasts and multiple models (including recent runs) indicate lows in the upper 70s to low 80s under partly cloudy to overcast skies, southeast winds of 5-10 mph, and high dew points near 75°F that limit radiative cooling. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes of 80-81°F (40%) and 82-83°F (31%), reflecting trader consensus on the current warm pattern rather than climatological normals around 74-75°F.
Thunderstorm chances (around 40-50%) and lingering moisture from the prior day further suppress cooling, keeping temperatures above historical early-September averages. Outlier probabilities for 90°F+ (27%) or sub-75°F (combined ~55% across lower bins) represent tail risks from unexpected model shifts, such as clearer skies or a timing change in convection. Key resolution factors include the exact overnight minimum reported by official stations, with new model guidance and NWS updates expected to refine probabilities before midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 1, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$234Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 1, 2026, 3:29 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent warm, humid conditions with elevated overnight lows are driving the market toward 80-83°F as the most likely range for Houston’s minimum temperature on September 3, 2026.** Official National Weather Service forecasts and multiple models (including recent runs) indicate lows in the upper 70s to low 80s under partly cloudy to overcast skies, southeast winds of 5-10 mph, and high dew points near 75°F that limit radiative cooling. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes of 80-81°F (40%) and 82-83°F (31%), reflecting trader consensus on the current warm pattern rather than climatological normals around 74-75°F.
Thunderstorm chances (around 40-50%) and lingering moisture from the prior day further suppress cooling, keeping temperatures above historical early-September averages. Outlier probabilities for 90°F+ (27%) or sub-75°F (combined ~55% across lower bins) represent tail risks from unexpected model shifts, such as clearer skies or a timing change in convection. Key resolution factors include the exact overnight minimum reported by official stations, with new model guidance and NWS updates expected to refine probabilities before midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$234Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 1, 2026, 3:29 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent warm, humid conditions with elevated overnight lows are driving the market toward 80-83°F as the most likely range for Houston’s minimum temperature on September 3, 2026.** Official National Weather Service forecasts and multiple models (including recent runs) indicate lows in the upper 70s to low 80s under partly cloudy to overcast skies, southeast winds of 5-10 mph, and high dew points near 75°F that limit radiative cooling. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes of 80-81°F (40%) and 82-83°F (31%), reflecting trader consensus on the current warm pattern rather than climatological normals around 74-75°F. Thunderstorm chances (around 40-50%) and lingering moisture from the prior day further suppress cooling, keeping temperatures above historical early-September averages. Outlier probabilities for 90°F+ (27%) or sub-75°F (combined ~55% across lower bins) represent tail risks from unexpected model shifts, such as clearer skies or a timing change in convection. Key resolution factors include the exact overnight minimum reported by official stations, with new model guidance and NWS updates expected to refine probabilities before midnight.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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