Recent forecast model consensus from agencies like the Met Office and ECMWF points to a mild overnight minimum near 15–16°C in London on September 23, driven by high pressure, light northerly winds, and partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. This aligns with the market-implied 59.5% probability on 16°C and 30% on 17°C, as current observations show temperatures holding above seasonal norms amid a +3–4°C September anomaly. Model spreads introduce modest uncertainty, with some runs dipping toward 13–14°C if clearer skies develop, supporting the secondary 11.5% and 5.5% odds. Historical baselines for late-September lows average 10–12°C, so the current setup favors the upper end of the distribution until final verification.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in London on September 23?
Lowest temperature in London on September 23?
16°C 69%
17°C 34%
15°C 13%
14°C 6%
BARU
BARU
Sep 23, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
2%
13°C
3%
14°C
6%
15°C
13%
16°C
59%
17°C
30%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
16°C 69%
17°C 34%
15°C 13%
14°C 6%
BARU
BARU
Sep 23, 2026
9°C or below
$19 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$60 Vol.
1%
12°C
$386 Vol.
2%
13°C
$341 Vol.
3%
14°C
$764 Vol.
6%
15°C
$834 Vol.
13%
16°C
$896 Vol.
59%
17°C
$603 Vol.
30%
18°C
$419 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$15 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from agencies like the Met Office and ECMWF points to a mild overnight minimum near 15–16°C in London on September 23, driven by high pressure, light northerly winds, and partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. This aligns with the market-implied 59.5% probability on 16°C and 30% on 17°C, as current observations show temperatures holding above seasonal norms amid a +3–4°C September anomaly. Model spreads introduce modest uncertainty, with some runs dipping toward 13–14°C if clearer skies develop, supporting the secondary 11.5% and 5.5% odds. Historical baselines for late-September lows average 10–12°C, so the current setup favors the upper end of the distribution until final verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$4,351Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 23, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from agencies like the Met Office and ECMWF points to a mild overnight minimum near 15–16°C in London on September 23, driven by high pressure, light northerly winds, and partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. This aligns with the market-implied 59.5% probability on 16°C and 30% on 17°C, as current observations show temperatures holding above seasonal norms amid a +3–4°C September anomaly. Model spreads introduce modest uncertainty, with some runs dipping toward 13–14°C if clearer skies develop, supporting the secondary 11.5% and 5.5% odds. Historical baselines for late-September lows average 10–12°C, so the current setup favors the upper end of the distribution until final verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,351Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 23, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from agencies like the Met Office and ECMWF points to a mild overnight minimum near 15–16°C in London on September 23, driven by high pressure, light northerly winds, and partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. This aligns with the market-implied 59.5% probability on 16°C and 30% on 17°C, as current observations show temperatures holding above seasonal norms amid a +3–4°C September anomaly. Model spreads introduce modest uncertainty, with some runs dipping toward 13–14°C if clearer skies develop, supporting the secondary 11.5% and 5.5% odds. Historical baselines for late-September lows average 10–12°C, so the current setup favors the upper end of the distribution until final verification.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan