Recent short-range forecasts from agencies like the Korea Meteorological Administration and AccuWeather indicate overnight lows in Seoul near 22–23°C for July 4, aligning with the market's tight clustering around these levels. Midsummer monsoon conditions, driven by a strengthened North Pacific High and elevated sea-surface temperatures roughly 1°C above average, promote high humidity and frequent showers that limit nighttime radiative cooling. Model consensus shows modest day-to-day variability tied to cloud cover and precipitation timing, which can shift morning lows by 1–2°C. Historical July climatology places typical minimums near 21–23°C, with traders weighting current ensemble guidance and the absence of extreme heat-dome signals expected later in the season. Updated model runs ahead of the date remain the key variable.