Traders have concentrated implied probability on 26–28°C lows for Shanghai on July 20 because current model guidance and seasonal climatology place typical overnight minima in this narrow band during late July, after the plum-rainy season ends and subtropical high pressure strengthens. Subtle differences among these outcomes hinge on forecast details such as nocturnal cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and light wind regimes that modulate radiative cooling rates over the urban heat island. Ensemble spreads remain modest this close to the date, with any late adjustments from updated ECMWF or GFS runs able to shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Historical July lows average near 26–27°C, providing a firm baseline against which traders weigh short-term deviations.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Shanghai on July 20?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 20?
27°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$26,474 Vol.
$26,474 Vol.
Jul 20, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$26,474 Vol.
$26,474 Vol.
Jul 20, 2026
22°C or below
$2,713 Vol.
No
23°C
$2,444 Vol.
No
24°C
$2,319 Vol.
No
25°C
$1,223 Vol.
No
26°C
$2,581 Vol.
No
27°C
$6,439 Vol.
Yes
28°C
$4,978 Vol.
No
29°C
$1,869 Vol.
No
30°C
$672 Vol.
No
31°C
$715 Vol.
No
32°C or higher
$522 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have concentrated implied probability on 26–28°C lows for Shanghai on July 20 because current model guidance and seasonal climatology place typical overnight minima in this narrow band during late July, after the plum-rainy season ends and subtropical high pressure strengthens. Subtle differences among these outcomes hinge on forecast details such as nocturnal cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and light wind regimes that modulate radiative cooling rates over the urban heat island. Ensemble spreads remain modest this close to the date, with any late adjustments from updated ECMWF or GFS runs able to shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Historical July lows average near 26–27°C, providing a firm baseline against which traders weigh short-term deviations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 18, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$26,474Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 20, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 18, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have concentrated implied probability on 26–28°C lows for Shanghai on July 20 because current model guidance and seasonal climatology place typical overnight minima in this narrow band during late July, after the plum-rainy season ends and subtropical high pressure strengthens. Subtle differences among these outcomes hinge on forecast details such as nocturnal cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and light wind regimes that modulate radiative cooling rates over the urban heat island. Ensemble spreads remain modest this close to the date, with any late adjustments from updated ECMWF or GFS runs able to shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Historical July lows average near 26–27°C, providing a firm baseline against which traders weigh short-term deviations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$26,474Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 20, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 18, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
Traders have concentrated implied probability on 26–28°C lows for Shanghai on July 20 because current model guidance and seasonal climatology place typical overnight minima in this narrow band during late July, after the plum-rainy season ends and subtropical high pressure strengthens. Subtle differences among these outcomes hinge on forecast details such as nocturnal cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and light wind regimes that modulate radiative cooling rates over the urban heat island. Ensemble spreads remain modest this close to the date, with any late adjustments from updated ECMWF or GFS runs able to shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Historical July lows average near 26–27°C, providing a firm baseline against which traders weigh short-term deviations.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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