Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 63% implied probability to no named storm forming before the Atlantic hurricane season's June 1 start, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest outlook on April 17 confirming zero tropical cyclones or disturbances with formation potential across the basin. This aligns with historical rarity—pre-season named storms occur in only about one-third of recent years, typically requiring sustained sea surface temperatures above 26.5°C (80°F) and low wind shear, conditions not yet met amid current weak La Niña patterns favoring subdued early activity despite slightly above-normal western Atlantic SSTs. Colorado State University's April 9 forecast of below-normal 2026 season activity further bolsters "No" sentiment, though uncertainty persists as NHC resumes regular Tropical Weather Outlooks May 15, with model runs potentially tracking any emerging waves.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNamed storm forms before hurricane season?
Named storm forms before hurricane season?
$332,115 Vol.
$332,115 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$332,115 Vol.
$332,115 Vol.
May 31, 2026
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 63% implied probability to no named storm forming before the Atlantic hurricane season's June 1 start, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest outlook on April 17 confirming zero tropical cyclones or disturbances with formation potential across the basin. This aligns with historical rarity—pre-season named storms occur in only about one-third of recent years, typically requiring sustained sea surface temperatures above 26.5°C (80°F) and low wind shear, conditions not yet met amid current weak La Niña patterns favoring subdued early activity despite slightly above-normal western Atlantic SSTs. Colorado State University's April 9 forecast of below-normal 2026 season activity further bolsters "No" sentiment, though uncertainty persists as NHC resumes regular Tropical Weather Outlooks May 15, with model runs potentially tracking any emerging waves.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ET
Volume
$332,115Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 63% implied probability to no named storm forming before the Atlantic hurricane season's June 1 start, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest outlook on April 17 confirming zero tropical cyclones or disturbances with formation potential across the basin. This aligns with historical rarity—pre-season named storms occur in only about one-third of recent years, typically requiring sustained sea surface temperatures above 26.5°C (80°F) and low wind shear, conditions not yet met amid current weak La Niña patterns favoring subdued early activity despite slightly above-normal western Atlantic SSTs. Colorado State University's April 9 forecast of below-normal 2026 season activity further bolsters "No" sentiment, though uncertainty persists as NHC resumes regular Tropical Weather Outlooks May 15, with model runs potentially tracking any emerging waves.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volume
$332,115Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 63% implied probability to no named storm forming before the Atlantic hurricane season's June 1 start, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest outlook on April 17 confirming zero tropical cyclones or disturbances with formation potential across the basin. This aligns with historical rarity—pre-season named storms occur in only about one-third of recent years, typically requiring sustained sea surface temperatures above 26.5°C (80°F) and low wind shear, conditions not yet met amid current weak La Niña patterns favoring subdued early activity despite slightly above-normal western Atlantic SSTs. Colorado State University's April 9 forecast of below-normal 2026 season activity further bolsters "No" sentiment, though uncertainty persists as NHC resumes regular Tropical Weather Outlooks May 15, with model runs potentially tracking any emerging waves.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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