OpenAI’s September 3 launch of GPT-6 Astra quickly secured first place on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard with 1,797 points, leaving Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 just 35 points behind at second. Traders assign Anthropic a 78.7% implied probability of holding that runner-up lab position through September 30 because its coding-focused models continue to post near-frontier results on SWE-bench, Terminal-Bench, and agentic web-development tasks, while no other lab has closed the gap. OpenAI sits at 17.7% as the only realistic threat to drop into second, yet recent benchmark data show its lead is narrow and stable. Chinese labs such as Alibaba and Moonshot trail further back, and the month-end cutoff leaves little time for new releases or major leaderboard swings to alter the ordering.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAnthropic 78.8%
OpenAI 17.7%
Moonshot 2.7%
Alibaba 2.7%
$67,772 Vol.
$67,772 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
79%
OpenAI
18%
Moonshot
3%
Alibaba
3%
SpaceXAI
1%
Tencent
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meta
<1%
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Poolside
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 78.8%
OpenAI 17.7%
Moonshot 2.7%
Alibaba 2.7%
$67,772 Vol.
$67,772 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$13,421 Vol.
79%
OpenAI
$7,892 Vol.
18%
Moonshot
$12,017 Vol.
3%
Alibaba
$16,842 Vol.
3%
SpaceXAI
$2,214 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$1,650 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$1,770 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$1,482 Vol.
<1%
$1,560 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$3,054 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$598 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,468 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,022 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$617 Vol.
<1%
Poolside
$1,035 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,130 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s September 3 launch of GPT-6 Astra quickly secured first place on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard with 1,797 points, leaving Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 just 35 points behind at second. Traders assign Anthropic a 78.7% implied probability of holding that runner-up lab position through September 30 because its coding-focused models continue to post near-frontier results on SWE-bench, Terminal-Bench, and agentic web-development tasks, while no other lab has closed the gap. OpenAI sits at 17.7% as the only realistic threat to drop into second, yet recent benchmark data show its lead is narrow and stable. Chinese labs such as Alibaba and Moonshot trail further back, and the month-end cutoff leaves little time for new releases or major leaderboard swings to alter the ordering.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 24, 2026, 7:45 PM ET
Volume
$67,772Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 24, 2026, 7:45 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s September 3 launch of GPT-6 Astra quickly secured first place on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard with 1,797 points, leaving Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 just 35 points behind at second. Traders assign Anthropic a 78.7% implied probability of holding that runner-up lab position through September 30 because its coding-focused models continue to post near-frontier results on SWE-bench, Terminal-Bench, and agentic web-development tasks, while no other lab has closed the gap. OpenAI sits at 17.7% as the only realistic threat to drop into second, yet recent benchmark data show its lead is narrow and stable. Chinese labs such as Alibaba and Moonshot trail further back, and the month-end cutoff leaves little time for new releases or major leaderboard swings to alter the ordering.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$67,772Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 24, 2026, 7:45 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s September 3 launch of GPT-6 Astra quickly secured first place on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard with 1,797 points, leaving Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 just 35 points behind at second. Traders assign Anthropic a 78.7% implied probability of holding that runner-up lab position through September 30 because its coding-focused models continue to post near-frontier results on SWE-bench, Terminal-Bench, and agentic web-development tasks, while no other lab has closed the gap. OpenAI sits at 17.7% as the only realistic threat to drop into second, yet recent benchmark data show its lead is narrow and stable. Chinese labs such as Alibaba and Moonshot trail further back, and the month-end cutoff leaves little time for new releases or major leaderboard swings to alter the ordering.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan