Turkey’s ruling coalition holds roughly 320-330 parliamentary seats, well short of the 360-vote threshold required to advance a constitutional amendment to referendum or the 400 needed for direct passage. Recent statements from President Erdoğan and Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş have reiterated long-standing support for replacing the 1982 charter with a civilian document, and AKP working groups continue internal drafting. However, no draft has advanced to formal parliamentary consideration in 2026, as legislative priorities have centered on judicial reform packages, the PKK disarmament process, and budget measures. Opposition parties have shown no inclination to provide the cross-party support necessary for meaningful progress before year-end, leaving the implied probability of substantive constitutional movement this year at the current low level.