**Houthi territorial gains in Yemen have intensified risks at the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint, a critical artery for roughly 10-12% of global seaborne trade and several million barrels per day of crude, primarily Saudi exports rerouted after Strait of Hormuz disruptions.** Recent seizures of Mokha port and Perim Island (as of early September 2026) give the group enhanced surveillance and strike capability, prompting a further 46% drop in transits on some days and pushing volumes 60-70% below pre-crisis norms. Traders price a very low implied probability of zero transits on any single day because carriers continue selective passages when freight economics justify war-risk premiums, while most non-Saudi-linked vessels reroute via the Cape of Good Hope. This sustains positive but sharply reduced daily counts (often 20-30 vessels recently, with tankers near single digits), elevated insurance costs, and upward pressure on Brent crude (near $108-109 per barrel). Key swing factors include any escalation in U.S.-Iran hostilities or Houthi targeting shifts that could tip marginal operators toward full avoidance.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato0 navi transitano a Bab el-Mandeb in qualsiasi data entro..?
0 navi transitano a Bab el-Mandeb in qualsiasi data entro..?
NUOVO
30 set 2026
30 settembre
18%
31 dicembre
51%
$24 Vol.
30 settembre
$24 Vol.
18%
31 dicembre
$0 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Houthi territorial gains in Yemen have intensified risks at the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint, a critical artery for roughly 10-12% of global seaborne trade and several million barrels per day of crude, primarily Saudi exports rerouted after Strait of Hormuz disruptions.** Recent seizures of Mokha port and Perim Island (as of early September 2026) give the group enhanced surveillance and strike capability, prompting a further 46% drop in transits on some days and pushing volumes 60-70% below pre-crisis norms.
Traders price a very low implied probability of zero transits on any single day because carriers continue selective passages when freight economics justify war-risk premiums, while most non-Saudi-linked vessels reroute via the Cape of Good Hope. This sustains positive but sharply reduced daily counts (often 20-30 vessels recently, with tankers near single digits), elevated insurance costs, and upward pressure on Brent crude (near $108-109 per barrel). Key swing factors include any escalation in U.S.-Iran hostilities or Houthi targeting shifts that could tip marginal operators toward full avoidance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercato aperto: Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$24Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Houthi territorial gains in Yemen have intensified risks at the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint, a critical artery for roughly 10-12% of global seaborne trade and several million barrels per day of crude, primarily Saudi exports rerouted after Strait of Hormuz disruptions.** Recent seizures of Mokha port and Perim Island (as of early September 2026) give the group enhanced surveillance and strike capability, prompting a further 46% drop in transits on some days and pushing volumes 60-70% below pre-crisis norms.
Traders price a very low implied probability of zero transits on any single day because carriers continue selective passages when freight economics justify war-risk premiums, while most non-Saudi-linked vessels reroute via the Cape of Good Hope. This sustains positive but sharply reduced daily counts (often 20-30 vessels recently, with tankers near single digits), elevated insurance costs, and upward pressure on Brent crude (near $108-109 per barrel). Key swing factors include any escalation in U.S.-Iran hostilities or Houthi targeting shifts that could tip marginal operators toward full avoidance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$24Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cRisolutore
0x65070BE91...**Houthi territorial gains in Yemen have intensified risks at the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint, a critical artery for roughly 10-12% of global seaborne trade and several million barrels per day of crude, primarily Saudi exports rerouted after Strait of Hormuz disruptions.** Recent seizures of Mokha port and Perim Island (as of early September 2026) give the group enhanced surveillance and strike capability, prompting a further 46% drop in transits on some days and pushing volumes 60-70% below pre-crisis norms. Traders price a very low implied probability of zero transits on any single day because carriers continue selective passages when freight economics justify war-risk premiums, while most non-Saudi-linked vessels reroute via the Cape of Good Hope. This sustains positive but sharply reduced daily counts (often 20-30 vessels recently, with tankers near single digits), elevated insurance costs, and upward pressure on Brent crude (near $108-109 per barrel). Key swing factors include any escalation in U.S.-Iran hostilities or Houthi targeting shifts that could tip marginal operators toward full avoidance.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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