Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 260-319 non-reply posts for Elon Musk from April 14-21, with 260-279 and 280-299 each at 16.5% implied probability, reflecting his steady early April pace of roughly 34 posts per day—down from March's 42+ daily average amid consistent SpaceX updates like Super Heavy static fires and Tesla FSD demos. The past 48 hours show no surge, maintaining mid-30s output on viral topics from Starship progress to South African policy critiques, but competitive dynamics hinge on weekend upticks, potential xAI announcements, or election-season political firestorms that could push toward 320+; lulls from travel or launches might dip below 260, underscoring the market's sensitivity to real-time engagement spikes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato260-279 17%
280-299 17%
300-319 16%
240-259 14%
$3,805,519 Vol.
$3,805,519 Vol.
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
1%
200-219
5%
220-239
9%
240-259
14%
260-279
17%
280-299
17%
300-319
16%
320-339
11%
340-359
6%
360-379
3%
380-399
2%
400-419
1%
420-439
1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
260-279 17%
280-299 17%
300-319 16%
240-259 14%
$3,805,519 Vol.
$3,805,519 Vol.
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
1%
200-219
5%
220-239
9%
240-259
14%
260-279
17%
280-299
17%
300-319
16%
320-339
11%
340-359
6%
360-379
3%
380-399
2%
400-419
1%
420-439
1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercato aperto: Apr 11, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Fonte di risoluzione
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Fonte di risoluzione
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 260-319 non-reply posts for Elon Musk from April 14-21, with 260-279 and 280-299 each at 16.5% implied probability, reflecting his steady early April pace of roughly 34 posts per day—down from March's 42+ daily average amid consistent SpaceX updates like Super Heavy static fires and Tesla FSD demos. The past 48 hours show no surge, maintaining mid-30s output on viral topics from Starship progress to South African policy critiques, but competitive dynamics hinge on weekend upticks, potential xAI announcements, or election-season political firestorms that could push toward 320+; lulls from travel or launches might dip below 260, underscoring the market's sensitivity to real-time engagement spikes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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