Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects Elon Musk's steady X posting rhythm of 30-40 tweets daily, anchored by recent resolved markets like April 3-10 (240-259 posts) and April 7-14 (261 total over eight days), yielding implied probabilities clustered tightly at 16.5% for 260-279, 15.5% each for 240-259 and 280-299. This competitive spread among leading bins underscores baseline consistency in his pop culture commentary—spanning Tesla Semi reveals, AI chip tapeouts, and viral critiques of South African empowerment laws—but highlights vulnerability to daily swings from breaking news or quiet periods. Key differentiators include potential spikes from X Money launch buzz or SpaceX updates versus lulls during travel; traders eye real-time engagement metrics as the April 17-24 window unfolds, with resolution tied strictly to @elonmusk post volume.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato260-279 17%
240-259 16%
280-299 16%
300-319 14%
$837,386 Vol.
$837,386 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
1%
160-179
1%
180-199
3%
200-219
6%
220-239
10%
240-259
16%
260-279
17%
280-299
16%
300-319
14%
320-339
8%
340-359
5%
360-379
3%
380-399
2%
400-419
1%
420-439
1%
440-459
1%
460-479
1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
260-279 17%
240-259 16%
280-299 16%
300-319 14%
$837,386 Vol.
$837,386 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
1%
160-179
1%
180-199
3%
200-219
6%
220-239
10%
240-259
16%
260-279
17%
280-299
16%
300-319
14%
320-339
8%
340-359
5%
360-379
3%
380-399
2%
400-419
1%
420-439
1%
440-459
1%
460-479
1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercato aperto: Apr 14, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Fonte di risoluzione
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Fonte di risoluzione
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects Elon Musk's steady X posting rhythm of 30-40 tweets daily, anchored by recent resolved markets like April 3-10 (240-259 posts) and April 7-14 (261 total over eight days), yielding implied probabilities clustered tightly at 16.5% for 260-279, 15.5% each for 240-259 and 280-299. This competitive spread among leading bins underscores baseline consistency in his pop culture commentary—spanning Tesla Semi reveals, AI chip tapeouts, and viral critiques of South African empowerment laws—but highlights vulnerability to daily swings from breaking news or quiet periods. Key differentiators include potential spikes from X Money launch buzz or SpaceX updates versus lulls during travel; traders eye real-time engagement metrics as the April 17-24 window unfolds, with resolution tied strictly to @elonmusk post volume.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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