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Politica·Elezioni Globali

Vincitore By-Election Farrer

Market icon
Politica·Elezioni Globali

Vincitore By-Election Farrer

Michelle Milthorpe 53%

David Farley 43%

Raissa Butkowski 5.2%

Rebecca Scriven 1.0%

Polymarket

$139,530 Vol.

Michelle Milthorpe 53%

David Farley 43%

Raissa Butkowski 5.2%

Rebecca Scriven 1.0%

Polymarket

$139,530 Vol.

Michelle Milthorpe vincerà le elezioni suppletive per il seggio di Farrer alla Camera dei Rappresentanti australiana? icon

Michelle Milthorpe

$27,139 Vol.

53%

David Farley vincerà le elezioni suppletive per il seggio di Farrer alla Camera dei Rappresentanti australiana? icon

David Farley

$137 Vol.

43%

Raissa Butkowski vincerà le elezioni suppletive per il seggio di Farrer nella Camera dei Rappresentanti australiana? icon

Raissa Butkowski

$107 Vol.

5%

Rebecca Scriven vincerà le elezioni suppletive per il seggio di Farrer nella Camera dei Rappresentanti australiana? icon

Rebecca Scriven

$93,112 Vol.

1%

Helen Dalton vincerà l'elezione suppletiva per il seggio di Farrer nella Camera dei Rappresentanti australiana? icon

Helen Dalton

$19,035 Vol.

1%

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight contest in the Farrer by-election, with independent Michelle Milthorpe edging One Nation's David Farley amid a fragmented field of 12 candidates following Sussan Ley's resignation from the safe Liberal seat. March polls showed Milthorpe and Farley dominating primary votes ahead of Liberal Raissa Butkowski, but preference flows from the conservative vote—via how-to-vote cards and Liberal/National dynamics—remain pivotal under preferential voting, keeping odds within 10 points. Recent developments include Milthorpe's funding boost from Climate 200 backers, Farley's irrigator-focused water policy push against Murray-Darling buybacks, and a Facebook post controversy denting One Nation momentum. Ballot draw placed Butkowski first, potentially aiding Liberal preferences; late endorsements, debates, or turnout in rural southwest NSW could tip the May 9 result.

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
Volume
$139,530
Data di fine
9 mag 2026
Mercato aperto
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight contest in the Farrer by-election, with independent Michelle Milthorpe edging One Nation's David Farley amid a fragmented field of 12 candidates following Sussan Ley's resignation from the safe Liberal seat. March polls showed Milthorpe and Farley dominating primary votes ahead of Liberal Raissa Butkowski, but preference flows from the conservative vote—via how-to-vote cards and Liberal/National dynamics—remain pivotal under preferential voting, keeping odds within 10 points. Recent developments include Milthorpe's funding boost from Climate 200 backers, Farley's irrigator-focused water policy push against Murray-Darling buybacks, and a Facebook post controversy denting One Nation momentum. Ballot draw placed Butkowski first, potentially aiding Liberal preferences; late endorsements, debates, or turnout in rural southwest NSW could tip the May 9 result.

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
Volume
$139,530
Data di fine
9 mag 2026
Mercato aperto
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).

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Domande frequenti

"Vincitore By-Election Farrer" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 5 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Michelle Milthorpe" a 53%, seguito da "David Farley" a 43%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 53¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 53% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Vincitore By-Election Farrer" ha generato $139.5K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Feb 17, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Vincitore By-Election Farrer", esplora i 5 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Vincitore By-Election Farrer" è "Michelle Milthorpe" a 53%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 53% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "David Farley" a 43%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Vincitore By-Election Farrer" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.