The closely matched market-implied odds favoring 27°C or 28°C for Ankara’s August 16 maximum temperature reflect genuine forecast uncertainty in short-range numerical weather models. Primary drivers include variability in initial atmospheric conditions, boundary-layer heat fluxes, and regional advection patterns over central Turkey’s continental climate, where diurnal heating and orographic effects can shift daily highs by 1–2°C. Ensemble spreads from global models such as ECMWF and GFS typically widen at 48-hour lead times due to chaotic amplification of small errors, consistent with historical August variability around 28–30°C. New observational data or updated runs will likely refine probabilities before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta ad Ankara il 16 agosto?
La temperatura più alta ad Ankara il 16 agosto?
27°C 40%
28°C 36%
29°C 16%
26°C 11%
NUOVO
NUOVO
16 ago 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
2%
26°C
11%
27°C
40%
28°C
36%
29°C
16%
30°C
4%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 40%
28°C 36%
29°C 16%
26°C 11%
NUOVO
NUOVO
16 ago 2026
22°C or below
$63 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$63 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$21 Vol.
2%
26°C
$316 Vol.
11%
27°C
$195 Vol.
40%
28°C
$303 Vol.
36%
29°C
$85 Vol.
16%
30°C
$25 Vol.
4%
31°C
$23 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$58 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched market-implied odds favoring 27°C or 28°C for Ankara’s August 16 maximum temperature reflect genuine forecast uncertainty in short-range numerical weather models. Primary drivers include variability in initial atmospheric conditions, boundary-layer heat fluxes, and regional advection patterns over central Turkey’s continental climate, where diurnal heating and orographic effects can shift daily highs by 1–2°C. Ensemble spreads from global models such as ECMWF and GFS typically widen at 48-hour lead times due to chaotic amplification of small errors, consistent with historical August variability around 28–30°C. New observational data or updated runs will likely refine probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,195Data di fine
16 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched market-implied odds favoring 27°C or 28°C for Ankara’s August 16 maximum temperature reflect genuine forecast uncertainty in short-range numerical weather models. Primary drivers include variability in initial atmospheric conditions, boundary-layer heat fluxes, and regional advection patterns over central Turkey’s continental climate, where diurnal heating and orographic effects can shift daily highs by 1–2°C. Ensemble spreads from global models such as ECMWF and GFS typically widen at 48-hour lead times due to chaotic amplification of small errors, consistent with historical August variability around 28–30°C. New observational data or updated runs will likely refine probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,195Data di fine
16 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched market-implied odds favoring 27°C or 28°C for Ankara’s August 16 maximum temperature reflect genuine forecast uncertainty in short-range numerical weather models. Primary drivers include variability in initial atmospheric conditions, boundary-layer heat fluxes, and regional advection patterns over central Turkey’s continental climate, where diurnal heating and orographic effects can shift daily highs by 1–2°C. Ensemble spreads from global models such as ECMWF and GFS typically widen at 48-hour lead times due to chaotic amplification of small errors, consistent with historical August variability around 28–30°C. New observational data or updated runs will likely refine probabilities before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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