Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration and global models indicate a probable daily maximum near 32–34°C in Chengdu on August 4, consistent with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those thresholds. Persistent summer monsoon moisture and the Sichuan basin’s topographic heat-trapping effect support elevated temperatures, while scattered afternoon convection and variable cloud cover introduce the main uncertainty in peak values. Historical early-August climatology shows typical highs of 30–34°C, with occasional spikes above 35°C under clearer, subsiding air. Traders are therefore assigning the highest probabilities to the central outcomes while discounting extremes until the next model runs refine steering patterns and precipitation timing.