Recent Met Office forecasts indicate an overnight minimum near 19–20 °C for London on August 4, with daytime maxima around 28 °C following a period of hot, settled weather. This drives the tight clustering of implied probabilities on 19–21 °C outcomes, reflecting modest uncertainty in ensemble guidance around clear skies, light winds, and urban heat-island retention that limit nocturnal cooling. Models show limited disagreement on timing of any subtle Atlantic influence or increased cloud, which could shift the low by 1–2 °C; traders monitor the next high-resolution runs and Met Office updates through August 3 for resolution signals. Historical August minima average near 14 °C, underscoring how current anomalous warmth elevates the expected floor.