**Forecast consensus from National Weather Service, local outlets like Denver7, and other models points to a Tuesday, September 22 high near 78–79°F in Denver, aligning with the market’s leading 34% probability bin.** This reflects typical late-September conditions at the city’s ~5,280-foot elevation, where diurnal heating is moderated by cooler baseline air masses and variable high-plains moisture. Scattered thunderstorms expected during the day introduce the main uncertainty: early or widespread convection could cap temperatures in the mid-70s by increasing cloud cover and reducing solar insolation, while delayed or isolated activity might allow brief clearing and readings into the low 80s. Model spreads on timing, wind direction (often southeasterly), and boundary-layer mixing explain the close clustering around the 78–83°F outcomes, with lower-probability tails reflecting rarer scenarios of stronger mixing or suppressed clouds. Short-term updates from NWS Denver/Boulder and updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten these ranges as the event nears resolution.