Recent AEMET and ensemble model guidance indicates a maximum of 38–39°C in Madrid on August 18 under persistent subtropical ridge conditions and warm advection from North Africa, aligning with the market’s leading 38°C (49.5%) and 39°C (34%) outcomes. Madrid’s inland plateau location amplifies daytime heating during clear, dry August periods, with low humidity and light winds limiting moderation; historical August maxima average near 33°C but have frequently exceeded 37°C amid the 2026 summer’s elevated baseline temperatures. Short-range model consensus shows minimal cooling expected before Tuesday, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could favor the 37°C bin (11.5%). Traders appear to weigh the official Retiro or Barajas station readings, with upcoming 48-hour forecast updates from AEMET likely to refine probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Madrid il 18 agosto?
La temperatura più alta di Madrid il 18 agosto?
38°C 51%
39°C 33%
37°C 13%
40°C 5%
NUOVO
NUOVO
18 ago 2026
34°C or below
<1%
35°C
1%
36°C
3%
37°C
13%
38°C
51%
39°C
33%
40°C
5%
41°C
1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C or higher
<1%
38°C 51%
39°C 33%
37°C 13%
40°C 5%
NUOVO
NUOVO
18 ago 2026
34°C or below
$239 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$365 Vol.
1%
36°C
$330 Vol.
3%
37°C
$623 Vol.
13%
38°C
$559 Vol.
51%
39°C
$1,269 Vol.
33%
40°C
$377 Vol.
5%
41°C
$312 Vol.
1%
42°C
$175 Vol.
<1%
43°C
$237 Vol.
<1%
44°C or higher
$599 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET and ensemble model guidance indicates a maximum of 38–39°C in Madrid on August 18 under persistent subtropical ridge conditions and warm advection from North Africa, aligning with the market’s leading 38°C (49.5%) and 39°C (34%) outcomes. Madrid’s inland plateau location amplifies daytime heating during clear, dry August periods, with low humidity and light winds limiting moderation; historical August maxima average near 33°C but have frequently exceeded 37°C amid the 2026 summer’s elevated baseline temperatures. Short-range model consensus shows minimal cooling expected before Tuesday, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could favor the 37°C bin (11.5%). Traders appear to weigh the official Retiro or Barajas station readings, with upcoming 48-hour forecast updates from AEMET likely to refine probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$5,075Data di fine
18 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET and ensemble model guidance indicates a maximum of 38–39°C in Madrid on August 18 under persistent subtropical ridge conditions and warm advection from North Africa, aligning with the market’s leading 38°C (49.5%) and 39°C (34%) outcomes. Madrid’s inland plateau location amplifies daytime heating during clear, dry August periods, with low humidity and light winds limiting moderation; historical August maxima average near 33°C but have frequently exceeded 37°C amid the 2026 summer’s elevated baseline temperatures. Short-range model consensus shows minimal cooling expected before Tuesday, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could favor the 37°C bin (11.5%). Traders appear to weigh the official Retiro or Barajas station readings, with upcoming 48-hour forecast updates from AEMET likely to refine probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,075Data di fine
18 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent AEMET and ensemble model guidance indicates a maximum of 38–39°C in Madrid on August 18 under persistent subtropical ridge conditions and warm advection from North Africa, aligning with the market’s leading 38°C (49.5%) and 39°C (34%) outcomes. Madrid’s inland plateau location amplifies daytime heating during clear, dry August periods, with low humidity and light winds limiting moderation; historical August maxima average near 33°C but have frequently exceeded 37°C amid the 2026 summer’s elevated baseline temperatures. Short-range model consensus shows minimal cooling expected before Tuesday, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could favor the 37°C bin (11.5%). Traders appear to weigh the official Retiro or Barajas station readings, with upcoming 48-hour forecast updates from AEMET likely to refine probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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