Recent ensemble forecasts from global models indicate a most probable daily maximum of 29–31°C in Istanbul on August 18, driven by persistent high pressure, light southerly flow, and typical late-summer insolation under mostly clear skies. The Bosphorus and surrounding seas exert a moderating maritime influence that limits extreme spikes, while the urban heat island can add 1–2°C locally depending on wind strength and cloud cover. Minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any sea-breeze shift accounts for the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these three outcomes. Updated high-resolution runs and official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours will narrow remaining uncertainty before settlement.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Istanbul il 18 agosto?
La temperatura più alta di Istanbul il 18 agosto?
30°C 31%
31°C 29%
29°C 27%
32°C 8%
NUOVO
NUOVO
18 ago 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
2%
26°C
4%
27°C
6%
28°C
6%
29°C
27%
30°C
31%
31°C
29%
32°C
8%
33°C
4%
34°C or higher
<1%
30°C 31%
31°C 29%
29°C 27%
32°C 8%
NUOVO
NUOVO
18 ago 2026
24°C or below
$177 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$10 Vol.
2%
26°C
$15 Vol.
4%
27°C
$61 Vol.
6%
28°C
$39 Vol.
6%
29°C
$32 Vol.
27%
30°C
$314 Vol.
31%
31°C
$109 Vol.
29%
32°C
$68 Vol.
8%
33°C
$35 Vol.
4%
34°C or higher
$46 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models indicate a most probable daily maximum of 29–31°C in Istanbul on August 18, driven by persistent high pressure, light southerly flow, and typical late-summer insolation under mostly clear skies. The Bosphorus and surrounding seas exert a moderating maritime influence that limits extreme spikes, while the urban heat island can add 1–2°C locally depending on wind strength and cloud cover. Minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any sea-breeze shift accounts for the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these three outcomes. Updated high-resolution runs and official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours will narrow remaining uncertainty before settlement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$906Data di fine
18 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models indicate a most probable daily maximum of 29–31°C in Istanbul on August 18, driven by persistent high pressure, light southerly flow, and typical late-summer insolation under mostly clear skies. The Bosphorus and surrounding seas exert a moderating maritime influence that limits extreme spikes, while the urban heat island can add 1–2°C locally depending on wind strength and cloud cover. Minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any sea-breeze shift accounts for the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these three outcomes. Updated high-resolution runs and official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours will narrow remaining uncertainty before settlement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$906Data di fine
18 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from global models indicate a most probable daily maximum of 29–31°C in Istanbul on August 18, driven by persistent high pressure, light southerly flow, and typical late-summer insolation under mostly clear skies. The Bosphorus and surrounding seas exert a moderating maritime influence that limits extreme spikes, while the urban heat island can add 1–2°C locally depending on wind strength and cloud cover. Minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any sea-breeze shift accounts for the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these three outcomes. Updated high-resolution runs and official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours will narrow remaining uncertainty before settlement.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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