Recent forecast models from sources like the GFS and European ensembles indicate peak daytime temperatures in Madrid on September 6, 2026, will likely reach the mid-30s Celsius, supported by a persistent high-pressure ridge and southerly flow advecting warm air. This aligns with current hot conditions, where September 4 highs have approached or exceeded 36°C. Model consensus clusters around 35–37°C, explaining why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 36°C and 37°C outcomes while discounting extremes below 35°C or above 38°C. Short-range uncertainty remains due to potential shifts in steering patterns or cloud cover, though no major model divergences have emerged in the past 48 hours. Historical September averages near 29°C provide context for the elevated but not record-breaking outlook.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Madrid il 6 settembre?
La temperatura più alta di Madrid il 6 settembre?
37°C 50%
36°C 31%
38°C 17%
35°C 4%
NUOVO
NUOVO
6 set 2026
33°C o inferiore
<1%
34°C
3%
35°C
4%
36°C
31%
37°C
50%
38°C
17%
39°C
3%
40°C
2%
41°C
1%
42°C
<1%
43°C o superiore
<1%
37°C 50%
36°C 31%
38°C 17%
35°C 4%
NUOVO
NUOVO
6 set 2026
33°C o inferiore
$33 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$0 Vol.
3%
35°C
$68 Vol.
4%
36°C
$346 Vol.
31%
37°C
$149 Vol.
50%
38°C
$311 Vol.
17%
39°C
$5 Vol.
3%
40°C
$5 Vol.
2%
41°C
$0 Vol.
1%
42°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
43°C o superiore
$36 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources like the GFS and European ensembles indicate peak daytime temperatures in Madrid on September 6, 2026, will likely reach the mid-30s Celsius, supported by a persistent high-pressure ridge and southerly flow advecting warm air. This aligns with current hot conditions, where September 4 highs have approached or exceeded 36°C. Model consensus clusters around 35–37°C, explaining why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 36°C and 37°C outcomes while discounting extremes below 35°C or above 38°C. Short-range uncertainty remains due to potential shifts in steering patterns or cloud cover, though no major model divergences have emerged in the past 48 hours. Historical September averages near 29°C provide context for the elevated but not record-breaking outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$952Data di fine
6 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources like the GFS and European ensembles indicate peak daytime temperatures in Madrid on September 6, 2026, will likely reach the mid-30s Celsius, supported by a persistent high-pressure ridge and southerly flow advecting warm air. This aligns with current hot conditions, where September 4 highs have approached or exceeded 36°C. Model consensus clusters around 35–37°C, explaining why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 36°C and 37°C outcomes while discounting extremes below 35°C or above 38°C. Short-range uncertainty remains due to potential shifts in steering patterns or cloud cover, though no major model divergences have emerged in the past 48 hours. Historical September averages near 29°C provide context for the elevated but not record-breaking outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$952Data di fine
6 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from sources like the GFS and European ensembles indicate peak daytime temperatures in Madrid on September 6, 2026, will likely reach the mid-30s Celsius, supported by a persistent high-pressure ridge and southerly flow advecting warm air. This aligns with current hot conditions, where September 4 highs have approached or exceeded 36°C. Model consensus clusters around 35–37°C, explaining why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 36°C and 37°C outcomes while discounting extremes below 35°C or above 38°C. Short-range uncertainty remains due to potential shifts in steering patterns or cloud cover, though no major model divergences have emerged in the past 48 hours. Historical September averages near 29°C provide context for the elevated but not record-breaking outlook.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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