Trader consensus around 21–23°C for São Paulo’s July 15 maximum reflects the city’s typical subtropical winter pattern under stable high-pressure systems, with light winds and mostly clear skies allowing modest daytime heating from overnight lows near 10–12°C. Historical July maxima average 21–22°C, and recent observations plus short-range model guidance show no strong cold fronts or anomalous warming to push readings outside this narrow band. Forecast spreads remain modest due to limited synoptic variability this time of year, supporting the heavy weighting on 22°C while leaving modest room for 23°C if insolation increases slightly. Updated official guidance from regional meteorological services over the next 24 hours will likely refine these market-implied probabilities.