Recent model consensus from official monitoring indicates Shanghai's September 25 maximum will likely reach 31°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow, supporting the market's leading 49% implied probability for that exact outcome. Persistent high humidity near 60-75% and minimal wind shear have limited nocturnal cooling, keeping overnight lows in the mid-20s and allowing daytime insolation to push peaks into the low 30s, consistent with the 22.5% odds on 32°C and 26% on 30°C. Recent days of stable subtropical conditions without incoming fronts or significant precipitation have reinforced this narrow range, while the 7.5% probabilities on 29°C or 33°C reflect minor model spread in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing. Updated runs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a Shanghai il 25 settembre?
La temperatura più alta a Shanghai il 25 settembre?
31°C 47%
32°C 25%
30°C 23%
28°C 7%
NUOVO
NUOVO
25 set 2026
27°C o inferiore
<1%
28°C
7%
29°C
5%
30°C
23%
31°C
47%
32°C
25%
33°C
4%
34°C
4%
35°C
2%
36°C
1%
37°C o superiore
<1%
31°C 47%
32°C 25%
30°C 23%
28°C 7%
NUOVO
NUOVO
25 set 2026
27°C o inferiore
$69 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$0 Vol.
7%
29°C
$129 Vol.
5%
30°C
$165 Vol.
23%
31°C
$168 Vol.
47%
32°C
$344 Vol.
25%
33°C
$119 Vol.
4%
34°C
$5 Vol.
4%
35°C
$0 Vol.
2%
36°C
$0 Vol.
1%
37°C o superiore
$119 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from official monitoring indicates Shanghai's September 25 maximum will likely reach 31°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow, supporting the market's leading 49% implied probability for that exact outcome. Persistent high humidity near 60-75% and minimal wind shear have limited nocturnal cooling, keeping overnight lows in the mid-20s and allowing daytime insolation to push peaks into the low 30s, consistent with the 22.5% odds on 32°C and 26% on 30°C. Recent days of stable subtropical conditions without incoming fronts or significant precipitation have reinforced this narrow range, while the 7.5% probabilities on 29°C or 33°C reflect minor model spread in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing. Updated runs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Sep 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,118Data di fine
25 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from official monitoring indicates Shanghai's September 25 maximum will likely reach 31°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow, supporting the market's leading 49% implied probability for that exact outcome. Persistent high humidity near 60-75% and minimal wind shear have limited nocturnal cooling, keeping overnight lows in the mid-20s and allowing daytime insolation to push peaks into the low 30s, consistent with the 22.5% odds on 32°C and 26% on 30°C. Recent days of stable subtropical conditions without incoming fronts or significant precipitation have reinforced this narrow range, while the 7.5% probabilities on 29°C or 33°C reflect minor model spread in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing. Updated runs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,118Data di fine
25 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from official monitoring indicates Shanghai's September 25 maximum will likely reach 31°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow, supporting the market's leading 49% implied probability for that exact outcome. Persistent high humidity near 60-75% and minimal wind shear have limited nocturnal cooling, keeping overnight lows in the mid-20s and allowing daytime insolation to push peaks into the low 30s, consistent with the 22.5% odds on 32°C and 26% on 30°C. Recent days of stable subtropical conditions without incoming fronts or significant precipitation have reinforced this narrow range, while the 7.5% probabilities on 29°C or 33°C reflect minor model spread in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing. Updated runs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti