Recent model consensus from agencies like the Met Office and ECMWF points to a high-pressure ridge over central Europe, delivering mostly sunny conditions and light northwesterly winds to Warsaw on August 12. These factors limit cloud cover and moisture advection, allowing surface heating from solar insolation to peak near 23–25 °C—values that align with the closely matched market-implied probabilities of 31.5 % for 23 °C and 35.5 % for 24 °C. Minor differences in forecast maxima hinge on exact boundary-layer mixing and any residual daytime cumulus, which could trim or boost the daily high by 1–2 °C. Historical August averages near 24 °C provide context, while the absence of fronts keeps resolution uncertainty low ahead of final observational data.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a Varsavia il 12 agosto?
La temperatura più alta a Varsavia il 12 agosto?
23°C 37%
24°C 36%
25°C 13%
22°C 11%
NUOVO
NUOVO
12 ago 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
4%
22°C
11%
23°C
37%
24°C
36%
25°C
13%
26°C
3%
27°C
3%
28°C or higher
1%
23°C 37%
24°C 36%
25°C 13%
22°C 11%
NUOVO
NUOVO
12 ago 2026
18°C or below
$12 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$12 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$12 Vol.
1%
21°C
$1 Vol.
4%
22°C
$122 Vol.
11%
23°C
$156 Vol.
37%
24°C
$53 Vol.
36%
25°C
$88 Vol.
13%
26°C
$10 Vol.
3%
27°C
$17 Vol.
3%
28°C or higher
$12 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies like the Met Office and ECMWF points to a high-pressure ridge over central Europe, delivering mostly sunny conditions and light northwesterly winds to Warsaw on August 12. These factors limit cloud cover and moisture advection, allowing surface heating from solar insolation to peak near 23–25 °C—values that align with the closely matched market-implied probabilities of 31.5 % for 23 °C and 35.5 % for 24 °C. Minor differences in forecast maxima hinge on exact boundary-layer mixing and any residual daytime cumulus, which could trim or boost the daily high by 1–2 °C. Historical August averages near 24 °C provide context, while the absence of fronts keeps resolution uncertainty low ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$496Data di fine
12 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies like the Met Office and ECMWF points to a high-pressure ridge over central Europe, delivering mostly sunny conditions and light northwesterly winds to Warsaw on August 12. These factors limit cloud cover and moisture advection, allowing surface heating from solar insolation to peak near 23–25 °C—values that align with the closely matched market-implied probabilities of 31.5 % for 23 °C and 35.5 % for 24 °C. Minor differences in forecast maxima hinge on exact boundary-layer mixing and any residual daytime cumulus, which could trim or boost the daily high by 1–2 °C. Historical August averages near 24 °C provide context, while the absence of fronts keeps resolution uncertainty low ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$496Data di fine
12 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from agencies like the Met Office and ECMWF points to a high-pressure ridge over central Europe, delivering mostly sunny conditions and light northwesterly winds to Warsaw on August 12. These factors limit cloud cover and moisture advection, allowing surface heating from solar insolation to peak near 23–25 °C—values that align with the closely matched market-implied probabilities of 31.5 % for 23 °C and 35.5 % for 24 °C. Minor differences in forecast maxima hinge on exact boundary-layer mixing and any residual daytime cumulus, which could trim or boost the daily high by 1–2 °C. Historical August averages near 24 °C provide context, while the absence of fronts keeps resolution uncertainty low ahead of final observational data.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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