The approaching cold front and ensuing strong southwest flow over New Zealand’s North Island on August 4 are the main drivers pushing trader consensus toward a maximum of 10–11 °C in Wellington. Typical August climatology places daytime highs near 12 °C, yet the expected advection of cooler Southern Ocean air behind the front, combined with increased cloud cover and wind, favors readings one to two degrees below average. Recent MetService guidance and seasonal outlooks indicate near- or below-average temperatures for the region, with model consensus showing limited warming potential before the front passes. As resolution nears, updated official forecasts and any shifts in the front’s timing will be the key variables that could alter implied probabilities around these thresholds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a Wellington il 4 agosto?
La temperatura più alta a Wellington il 4 agosto?
10°C 50%
11°C 29%
9°C 16%
7°C 4%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 ago 2026
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
4%
8°C
4%
9°C
16%
10°C
50%
11°C
29%
12°C
4%
13°C
1%
14°C or higher
1%
10°C 50%
11°C 29%
9°C 16%
7°C 4%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 ago 2026
4°C or below
$433 Vol.
<1%
5°C
$423 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$267 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$20 Vol.
4%
8°C
$98 Vol.
4%
9°C
$136 Vol.
16%
10°C
$179 Vol.
50%
11°C
$362 Vol.
29%
12°C
$82 Vol.
4%
13°C
$91 Vol.
1%
14°C or higher
$30 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The approaching cold front and ensuing strong southwest flow over New Zealand’s North Island on August 4 are the main drivers pushing trader consensus toward a maximum of 10–11 °C in Wellington. Typical August climatology places daytime highs near 12 °C, yet the expected advection of cooler Southern Ocean air behind the front, combined with increased cloud cover and wind, favors readings one to two degrees below average. Recent MetService guidance and seasonal outlooks indicate near- or below-average temperatures for the region, with model consensus showing limited warming potential before the front passes. As resolution nears, updated official forecasts and any shifts in the front’s timing will be the key variables that could alter implied probabilities around these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$2,121Data di fine
4 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The approaching cold front and ensuing strong southwest flow over New Zealand’s North Island on August 4 are the main drivers pushing trader consensus toward a maximum of 10–11 °C in Wellington. Typical August climatology places daytime highs near 12 °C, yet the expected advection of cooler Southern Ocean air behind the front, combined with increased cloud cover and wind, favors readings one to two degrees below average. Recent MetService guidance and seasonal outlooks indicate near- or below-average temperatures for the region, with model consensus showing limited warming potential before the front passes. As resolution nears, updated official forecasts and any shifts in the front’s timing will be the key variables that could alter implied probabilities around these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,121Data di fine
4 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...The approaching cold front and ensuing strong southwest flow over New Zealand’s North Island on August 4 are the main drivers pushing trader consensus toward a maximum of 10–11 °C in Wellington. Typical August climatology places daytime highs near 12 °C, yet the expected advection of cooler Southern Ocean air behind the front, combined with increased cloud cover and wind, favors readings one to two degrees below average. Recent MetService guidance and seasonal outlooks indicate near- or below-average temperatures for the region, with model consensus showing limited warming potential before the front passes. As resolution nears, updated official forecasts and any shifts in the front’s timing will be the key variables that could alter implied probabilities around these thresholds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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