**Internal power struggles in Iran following Ali Khamenei's February 2026 assassination have fueled accusations of a "soft coup" or "political coup" by pragmatic officials against the new supreme leader's authority.** Mojtaba Khamenei's prolonged public absence has enabled President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to elevate the Supreme National Security Council in decision-making on wartime and diplomatic matters, prompting hardline lawmakers like Kamran Ghazanfari and Mahmoud Nabavian to warn of efforts to sideline the leadership and revolutionary institutions. As of mid-August 2026, reports indicate a military junta tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is consolidating control, with billboards in Tehran highlighting seven commanders and minimal religious symbolism. Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei publicly cautioned on August 17 against coups, sedition, and infiltration amid economic strain and risks of unrest. These factional tensions, combined with the failed U.S. truce and IRGC influence, shape trader assessments of potential attempts to alter the post-Khamenei order.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$2,122,612 Vol.
31 dic 2026
31 dicembre
8%
$2,122,612 Vol.
31 dicembre
$81,386 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Internal power struggles in Iran following Ali Khamenei's February 2026 assassination have fueled accusations of a "soft coup" or "political coup" by pragmatic officials against the new supreme leader's authority.** Mojtaba Khamenei's prolonged public absence has enabled President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to elevate the Supreme National Security Council in decision-making on wartime and diplomatic matters, prompting hardline lawmakers like Kamran Ghazanfari and Mahmoud Nabavian to warn of efforts to sideline the leadership and revolutionary institutions. As of mid-August 2026, reports indicate a military junta tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is consolidating control, with billboards in Tehran highlighting seven commanders and minimal religious symbolism. Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei publicly cautioned on August 17 against coups, sedition, and infiltration amid economic strain and risks of unrest. These factional tensions, combined with the failed U.S. truce and IRGC influence, shape trader assessments of potential attempts to alter the post-Khamenei order.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,122,612Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Internal power struggles in Iran following Ali Khamenei's February 2026 assassination have fueled accusations of a "soft coup" or "political coup" by pragmatic officials against the new supreme leader's authority.** Mojtaba Khamenei's prolonged public absence has enabled President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to elevate the Supreme National Security Council in decision-making on wartime and diplomatic matters, prompting hardline lawmakers like Kamran Ghazanfari and Mahmoud Nabavian to warn of efforts to sideline the leadership and revolutionary institutions. As of mid-August 2026, reports indicate a military junta tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is consolidating control, with billboards in Tehran highlighting seven commanders and minimal religious symbolism. Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei publicly cautioned on August 17 against coups, sedition, and infiltration amid economic strain and risks of unrest. These factional tensions, combined with the failed U.S. truce and IRGC influence, shape trader assessments of potential attempts to alter the post-Khamenei order.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,122,612Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Internal power struggles in Iran following Ali Khamenei's February 2026 assassination have fueled accusations of a "soft coup" or "political coup" by pragmatic officials against the new supreme leader's authority.** Mojtaba Khamenei's prolonged public absence has enabled President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to elevate the Supreme National Security Council in decision-making on wartime and diplomatic matters, prompting hardline lawmakers like Kamran Ghazanfari and Mahmoud Nabavian to warn of efforts to sideline the leadership and revolutionary institutions. As of mid-August 2026, reports indicate a military junta tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is consolidating control, with billboards in Tehran highlighting seven commanders and minimal religious symbolism. Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei publicly cautioned on August 17 against coups, sedition, and infiltration amid economic strain and risks of unrest. These factional tensions, combined with the failed U.S. truce and IRGC influence, shape trader assessments of potential attempts to alter the post-Khamenei order.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti