Iran's post-2026 war political landscape features ongoing power struggles following the February strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompted Mojtaba Khamenei's election as successor in March. Hardline factions have publicly accused officials including Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Masoud Pezeshkian, and Abbas Araghchi of a soft coup or sidelining revolutionary principles during US truce talks, with warnings intensifying in July amid negotiations and the new leader's limited visibility. These claims coincide with IRGC influence growing as security forces manage internal stability and external diplomacy. Traders assess coup attempt probabilities based on signals of factional rifts, negotiation outcomes, and any escalation in domestic unrest or leadership transitions before year-end resolution windows.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$2,114,243 Vol.
31 dic 2026
31 dicembre
11%
$2,114,243 Vol.
31 dicembre
$73,018 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's post-2026 war political landscape features ongoing power struggles following the February strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompted Mojtaba Khamenei's election as successor in March. Hardline factions have publicly accused officials including Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Masoud Pezeshkian, and Abbas Araghchi of a soft coup or sidelining revolutionary principles during US truce talks, with warnings intensifying in July amid negotiations and the new leader's limited visibility. These claims coincide with IRGC influence growing as security forces manage internal stability and external diplomacy. Traders assess coup attempt probabilities based on signals of factional rifts, negotiation outcomes, and any escalation in domestic unrest or leadership transitions before year-end resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,114,243Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's post-2026 war political landscape features ongoing power struggles following the February strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompted Mojtaba Khamenei's election as successor in March. Hardline factions have publicly accused officials including Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Masoud Pezeshkian, and Abbas Araghchi of a soft coup or sidelining revolutionary principles during US truce talks, with warnings intensifying in July amid negotiations and the new leader's limited visibility. These claims coincide with IRGC influence growing as security forces manage internal stability and external diplomacy. Traders assess coup attempt probabilities based on signals of factional rifts, negotiation outcomes, and any escalation in domestic unrest or leadership transitions before year-end resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,114,243Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's post-2026 war political landscape features ongoing power struggles following the February strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompted Mojtaba Khamenei's election as successor in March. Hardline factions have publicly accused officials including Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Masoud Pezeshkian, and Abbas Araghchi of a soft coup or sidelining revolutionary principles during US truce talks, with warnings intensifying in July amid negotiations and the new leader's limited visibility. These claims coincide with IRGC influence growing as security forces manage internal stability and external diplomacy. Traders assess coup attempt probabilities based on signals of factional rifts, negotiation outcomes, and any escalation in domestic unrest or leadership transitions before year-end resolution windows.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti