Internal power struggles within Iran's post-war leadership have intensified factional tensions but have not produced a widely reported coup attempt. The February 2026 conflict, which included the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent U.S.-Israeli strikes, left the regime navigating succession questions around Mojtaba Khamenei while hardliners publicly warned of soft coups involving figures such as President Pezeshkian and Speaker Ghalibaf. IRGC elements have gained influence amid ongoing disputes over the Strait of Hormuz agreement, sanctions relief, and diplomatic concessions, yet no coordinated challenge to central authority has materialized through August 2026. Traders appear to weigh these internal divisions against the regime's demonstrated resilience and lack of large-scale defections or public uprisings. Scheduled diplomatic talks and potential further sanctions could alter factional dynamics before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$2,115,011 Vol.
31 dic 2026
31 dicembre
12%
$2,115,011 Vol.
31 dicembre
$73,785 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal power struggles within Iran's post-war leadership have intensified factional tensions but have not produced a widely reported coup attempt. The February 2026 conflict, which included the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent U.S.-Israeli strikes, left the regime navigating succession questions around Mojtaba Khamenei while hardliners publicly warned of soft coups involving figures such as President Pezeshkian and Speaker Ghalibaf. IRGC elements have gained influence amid ongoing disputes over the Strait of Hormuz agreement, sanctions relief, and diplomatic concessions, yet no coordinated challenge to central authority has materialized through August 2026. Traders appear to weigh these internal divisions against the regime's demonstrated resilience and lack of large-scale defections or public uprisings. Scheduled diplomatic talks and potential further sanctions could alter factional dynamics before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,115,011Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal power struggles within Iran's post-war leadership have intensified factional tensions but have not produced a widely reported coup attempt. The February 2026 conflict, which included the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent U.S.-Israeli strikes, left the regime navigating succession questions around Mojtaba Khamenei while hardliners publicly warned of soft coups involving figures such as President Pezeshkian and Speaker Ghalibaf. IRGC elements have gained influence amid ongoing disputes over the Strait of Hormuz agreement, sanctions relief, and diplomatic concessions, yet no coordinated challenge to central authority has materialized through August 2026. Traders appear to weigh these internal divisions against the regime's demonstrated resilience and lack of large-scale defections or public uprisings. Scheduled diplomatic talks and potential further sanctions could alter factional dynamics before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,115,011Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Internal power struggles within Iran's post-war leadership have intensified factional tensions but have not produced a widely reported coup attempt. The February 2026 conflict, which included the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent U.S.-Israeli strikes, left the regime navigating succession questions around Mojtaba Khamenei while hardliners publicly warned of soft coups involving figures such as President Pezeshkian and Speaker Ghalibaf. IRGC elements have gained influence amid ongoing disputes over the Strait of Hormuz agreement, sanctions relief, and diplomatic concessions, yet no coordinated challenge to central authority has materialized through August 2026. Traders appear to weigh these internal divisions against the regime's demonstrated resilience and lack of large-scale defections or public uprisings. Scheduled diplomatic talks and potential further sanctions could alter factional dynamics before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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