Recent US-mediated talks in Jordan on August 23 between Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani and Israeli Mossad chief Roman Gofman marked the highest-level direct contact in months, aiming to halt Israeli strikes, revive security negotiations, and address Turkish influence in Syria following Israel's August 18 strike on the Abu al-Duhur airbase. Both sides have discussed reviving elements of the 1974 disengagement agreement, including buffer zones and demilitarization in southern Syria, alongside Israeli concerns over advanced weapons, Druze security, and Turkish bases. Syria prioritizes withdrawal from post-Assad positions and frames any deal as a precursor to broader understandings without conceding claims on the Golan Heights, while Israeli officials maintain strict red lines. US pressure under the Trump administration and Syria's recent removal from the US terrorism list have supported confidence-building steps, though deep gaps over implementation and sovereignty persist. These dynamics shape trader views on timelines for full diplomatic normalization.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoUS says Israel-Syria normalization chances before elections are very slim
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
On June 30, 2026, a source familiar with the matter told The Jerusalem Post that the US administration believes the chances of advancing normalization between Israel and Syria before Israel's upcoming elections are very slim, reflecting market skepticism.
UAE-Syria meeting highlights regional focus on Israel-Lebanon agreement, no Syria-Israel normalization
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%2%
A meeting between UAE and Syrian officials focused on regional issues and the Israel-Lebanon framework agreement, with no indication of Syria-Israel normalization progress. This maintained market pessimism about normalization by December 31, 2026.
Israel-Lebanon peace talks progress under U.S. mediation
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
While not directly about Israel-Syria normalization, the June 2026 Israel-Lebanon peace talks under U.S. mediation indicated regional diplomatic activity but also highlighted ongoing conflicts and complexities in Israel's northern borders, indirectly dampening prospects for Israel-Syria normalization in the near term.
Israeli forces conduct raids in southern Syria amid ongoing tensions
June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%
On June 27, Israeli forces launched raids and searches in southern Syria's Daraa and Quneitra regions, reflecting continued military tensions and undermining prospects for diplomatic normalization between Israel and Syria by mid-2026.
Israeli forces conduct incursions into southern Quneitra, Syria; Damascus airport to resume flights July 2
Israeli military activity in southern Syria and the announcement of Damascus airport resuming flights indicate ongoing tensions and partial normalization of civil functions but no official diplomatic relations between Israel and Syria. This contributed to market skepticism about formal normalization by end of 2026.
Israel and Lebanon sign US-brokered framework agreement in Washington
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%2%
On June 26, 2026, Israel and Lebanon signed a US-brokered framework agreement to normalize relations and disarm Hezbollah. This major diplomatic event shifted regional focus away from Israel-Syria normalization and underscored the challenges in the region.
United States, Israel, and Lebanon sign trilateral framework agreement for peace
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%1%
On June 26, 2026, Israel and Lebanon signed a US-brokered framework agreement to establish mutual recognition, security arrangements, and a path toward peace, marking a major diplomatic milestone but not involving Syria.
Israeli Defense Minister Katz reiterates indefinite Israeli military presence in Syria
Defense Minister Israel Katz stated at an IDF graduation ceremony that Israeli forces would remain inside security zones in Syria without any time limit, reinforcing the stance against normalization and contributing to low market prices.
Syrian government partner ousted, raising questions on 1974 disengagement agreement
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%3%
The ousting of the Syrian government partner in the 1974 Agreement on Disengagement cast doubt on the continuation of the agreement, which underpins security arrangements with Israel. This development undermined confidence in progress toward normalization, reflected in market price declines.
Israeli Defense Minister affirms indefinite military presence in Syria and Lebanon
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Israeli forces would remain indefinitely in southern Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza to protect borders, signaling ongoing security concerns and reducing prospects for normalization. This statement likely contributed to the market's low pricing for normalization by June 30, 2026.
UAE holds meeting with Syrian foreign minister highlighting regional diplomatic engagement
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%2%
On June 25, 2026, the UAE met with Syria's foreign minister, signaling regional diplomatic activity involving Syria and potential indirect support for broader Middle East peace efforts, though no direct Israel-Syria normalization was announced.
US-GCC ministerial meeting reaffirms support for Syrian government and regional stability
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%1%
The US and Gulf Cooperation Council ministers expressed commitment to assist Syria in counterterrorism, restoring services, and regional integration, signaling ongoing engagement but no formal Israel-Syria diplomatic ties. This maintained low market optimism for normalization by end of 2026.
US and Gulf Cooperation Council affirm support for Syrian government and ongoing Israel-Lebanon talks
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%1%
On June 25, 2026, the US and GCC ministers met and reaffirmed commitment to support Syria's government in counterterrorism and reconstruction, while welcoming ongoing US-facilitated Israel-Lebanon negotiations for peace. This indicated regional diplomatic activity but did not include direct Israel-Syria normalization progress.
Defense Minister Katz Reaffirms Unlimited Military Presence in Syria
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%3%
Defense Minister Israel Katz repeated that Israeli forces will remain inside security zones in Syria and Lebanon without any time limit, further depressing the probability of a normalization agreement.
Investor sentiment sours on Israel amid ongoing regional conflicts
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%3%
By late June 2026, investors became pessimistic about peace prospects in the Middle East due to continued military actions and unresolved conflicts, including Israel-Syria tensions, leading to a decline in market prices for normalization.
UK Urges Israel to Resume Negotiations with Syria at UN Security Council
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%3%
The United Kingdom welcomed the US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough and urged Israel to resume negotiations with the Syrian government to pursue a diplomatic solution.
UK urges Israel to resume negotiations with Syria at UN Security Council
On June 22, 2026, the UK urged Israel to resume negotiations with the Syrian government and pursue a diplomatic solution at the UN Security Council. This statement highlighted international support for dialogue but did not indicate progress toward normalization.
IDF chief confirms Lebanon defense goal remains unchanged
IDF chief stated Israel's vision for Lebanon includes restoring support for the Lebanese state and seeking a peaceful solution, while noting Syria's potential role in stabilizing Lebanon, reinforcing the complex regional dynamics affecting normalization talks.
Israel and Hezbollah renew truce amid US-Iran diplomatic efforts
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%1%
A truce between Israel and Hezbollah was renewed, reducing immediate conflict risks and indirectly affecting regional dynamics involving Syria. This event maintained the status quo without advancing Israel-Syria normalization, reflected in stable low market prices.
Israel and Hezbollah agree to renew ceasefire mediated by US and Qatar
June 30, 2026 rises to 4%3%
Israel and Hezbollah renewed their truce on June 19, 2026, mediated by the US and Qatar, reducing immediate conflict risks and supporting ongoing diplomatic efforts in the region, including Israel-Lebanon talks.
US and Iran sign memorandum of understanding, encouraging regional diplomacy
The United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on June 17, 2026, which was welcomed by the UK and seen as a diplomatic breakthrough. This development encouraged calls for Israel to resume negotiations with Syria, but did not directly lead to normalization.
Analysis highlights stalled Syria-Israel talks and regional challenges
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
By mid-2026, analyses noted that despite initial progress, Syria-Israel talks remained stalled with no formal normalization, reflecting ongoing regional complexities and diminishing market optimism for near-term normalization.
Trump Suggests Syria Take Over Fight Against Hezbollah in Lebanon
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
At the G7 summit, US President Donald Trump suggested that Syria should replace Israel in fighting Hezbollah, praising Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa's capability.
Israel, Syria, and U.S. announce joint fusion mechanism for coordination
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%1%
Israel, Syria, and the U.S. jointly announced the establishment of a fusion mechanism to facilitate coordination on intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, diplomatic engagement, and commercial opportunities under U.S. supervision. This indicated progress in diplomatic engagement but fell short of formal normalization.
Trump proposes Syria take care of Hezbollah in Lebanon
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%1%
At the G7 summit, President Trump suggested that Israel let Syria handle Hezbollah in Lebanon, highlighting Syria's potential role in regional security arrangements.
US President Trump urges Syria to take over fight against Hezbollah, criticizes Israel's conduct
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
At the G7 summit, President Trump publicly suggested Syria should take responsibility for combating Hezbollah instead of Israel, signaling a shift in regional expectations but not indicating formal normalization. This statement influenced market perceptions about the likelihood of Israel-Syria diplomatic relations by end of 2026.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu states Israel will remain in Syria indefinitely
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
Netanyahu publicly declared that Israeli forces would maintain a presence in Syria "for as long as necessary," signaling no imminent withdrawal or normalization. This statement dampened market optimism for normalization by June 30, 2026.
Israeli Defense Minister affirms indefinite military presence in Syria and Lebanon
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
Defense Minister Israel Katz stated Israeli forces would remain in security zones in Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza indefinitely, signaling ongoing security concerns and reducing likelihood of normalization by June 30, 2026.
US President Trump suggests Syria should handle Hezbollah instead of Israel
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
At the G7 summit, President Trump publicly stated that Syria should take over responsibility for Hezbollah, implying a shift in regional dynamics but also highlighting ongoing tensions. This statement did not indicate progress toward normalization, reinforcing market pessimism.
Netanyahu Declares Israel Will Maintain Security Zones in Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza
June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israeli forces will not withdraw from occupied territories, including southern Syria, dampening hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough.
Israel's Military Actions in Syria Trigger Market Sell-off
June 30, 2026 drops to 1%12%
Following Israeli chemical spraying on Syrian farmland and destruction of infrastructure in occupied villages, the market price dropped sharply to 1%, reflecting renewed military escalation undermining normalization prospects.
Netanyahu rules out withdrawal from security zones in Syria and Lebanon
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed that Israeli forces will remain in established security zones in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria for as long as necessary, reinforcing Israel's long-term military presence.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu declares forces will remain in Syria indefinitely
Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israeli forces will remain in security zones in Syria indefinitely to protect Israeli communities, signaling a hardline security stance. This announcement dampened market expectations for normalization by June 30, 2026, keeping prices low.
Netanyahu Reiterates Israel Will Not Leave Occupied Syrian and Lebanese Territories
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to continue Israel's military presence in Syrian and Lebanese territories despite the announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire agreement.
Israel Vows Indefinite Military Presence in Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%
Following the announcement of a tentative US-Iran peace deal, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that Israeli forces would remain in their established security zones indefinitely.
Netanyahu Confirms Indefinite Military Presence in Syria and Lebanon
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated that Israeli forces will remain in Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza for as long as necessary, reinforcing Israel's hardline stance despite regional peace talks.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu affirms continued military presence in Syria post US-Iran peace deal
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%4%
Following the US-Iran peace agreement, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly stated on June 15, 2026, that Israeli forces would remain in Syria for as long as necessary. This reaffirmation of military presence indicated ongoing security concerns and diminished prospects for diplomatic normalization within the year.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu declares continued security zones in Syria and Lebanon
Netanyahu affirmed Israel's military presence in Syria and Lebanon, emphasizing security concerns and indicating no withdrawal plans. This stance underscored ongoing obstacles to normalization and likely contributed to the market's low pricing for normalization by June 30 and December 31, 2026.
Israeli Airstrikes Target Hezbollah Infrastructure in Lebanon
Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon heightened regional tensions, complicating the security environment and reducing near-term prospects for Israel-Syria normalization. This likely contributed to the market's low and stable probabilities.
Israeli Defense Minister vows to maintain security zones in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%4%
On June 12, 2026, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated Israel would not withdraw from security zones in Lebanon, Syria, or Gaza, signaling continued military presence and limiting prospects for normalization, contributing to market price declines.
Israel vows indefinite military presence in Syria despite peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz declared that Israeli forces would remain indefinitely in security zones including Syria, signaling reluctance to fully withdraw or normalize absent security guarantees. This hardened stance likely suppressed market prices for normalization.
Israel Defense Minister declares military will remain indefinitely in occupied Syria and Lebanon zones
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Israel would not withdraw from security zones it occupies in Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza, dampening prospects for diplomatic normalization.
Israel vows indefinite military presence in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza despite US-Iran peace agreement
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
On June 12, 2026, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz declared that Israel would maintain its military presence in southern Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza indefinitely despite a US-Iran peace deal. This stance underscored Israel's security concerns and reluctance to fully normalize relations with Syria, negatively impacting market expectations for normalization by mid-2026.
Reports of Israeli-Syrian peace deal signing ceremony planned in Geneva
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
Media reported that Switzerland offered to host a peace deal signing ceremony between Israel and Syria, possibly during the G7 summit, raising hopes for formal agreements though no official announcement followed immediately.
Israeli Defense Minister Declares Israel Will Not Withdraw From Security Zones
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz explicitly stated that Israel would not withdraw from security zones in Syria, Lebanon, or Gaza, reinforcing Israel's hardline stance and dampening hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough.
Israeli Defense Minister Rules Out Withdrawal from Security Zones in Syria and Lebanon
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz explicitly stated that Israel would not withdraw from its established security zones in Syria, Gaza, or Lebanon, dampening prospects for a swift diplomatic normalization.
Turkey condemns Israel's attacks on Syria and Lebanon
Turkey publicly criticized Israel's military actions in Syria and Lebanon, highlighting regional instability and potentially influencing diplomatic dynamics toward normalization.
Turkish President Erdogan condemns Israeli attacks on Syria and Lebanon
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%1%
On June 10, 2026, Turkish President Erdogan publicly criticized Israeli military actions against Syria and Lebanon, stating these attacks threaten regional security including Turkey. This statement highlighted ongoing tensions and military conflict in the region, underscoring challenges to normalization between Israel and Syria.
IDF Halts Strikes Against Iran Amid Truce Agreement
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
Israel announced a halt to strikes against Iran, a significant de-escalation that likely contributed to the market's price drop as tensions eased and diplomatic normalization became more feasible.
Israel halts strikes on Iran after Tehran announces truce
Israel paused military operations against Iran following a truce announcement, reducing regional tensions and creating conditions for diplomatic engagement with Syria.
Israeli Defense Minister emphasizes security posture against threats in Syria and Lebanon
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
On June 7, 2026, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated the Israeli army must defend against jihadist threats in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, underscoring ongoing security concerns. This statement highlighted persistent tensions and security challenges, limiting optimism for imminent normalization.
Tensions persist as Israel and Hezbollah exchange fire despite ceasefire
Despite ceasefire efforts, Israeli and Hezbollah forces exchanged fire, highlighting ongoing regional instability that complicates Israel-Syria normalization prospects and contributes to market pessimism about near-term diplomatic breakthroughs.
Kushner Floats Investment Packages to Incentivize Syria Joining Abraham Accords
Jared Kushner revealed discussions regarding large investment packages for Syria as an economic incentive to normalize relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords.
Kushner Floats Investment Packages to Incentivize Syria to Join Abraham Accords
Jared Kushner suggested putting together a large investment package for Syria to incentivize the country to normalize relations with Israel, highlighting ongoing efforts to expand the accords.
Rocket Barrage Fired at Israel and Golan Heights from Syrian Territory
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
A barrage of Grad rockets was launched from Tasil in Syria targeting northern Israel and the occupied Golan Heights, prompting Israeli artillery retaliation and highlighting ongoing border hostilities.
Israel and Lebanon agree to implement ceasefire, boosting regional peace hopes
Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire contingent on Hezbollah's cessation of attacks, a development seen as positive for regional stability. While not directly involving Syria, this reduced regional tensions and slightly improved market sentiment about broader peace prospects, including Israel-Syria relations.
U.S. issues joint statement after high‑level Israel‑Lebanon‑U.S. meeting
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
The United States released a joint statement after a high‑level trilateral meeting with Israel and Lebanon. While the focus was on Lebanon, analysts saw the lack of any mention of Syria as a sign that Syrian talks were stalling, dragging the “Yes” price for June‑30, 2026 down to 1 % (from 2 % on 2026‑06‑01).
US brokers major ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanon amid regional tensions
The US facilitated a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, which may indirectly affect regional dynamics including Israel-Syria relations, but no direct progress on Israel-Syria normalization was reported, keeping market prices steady.
UN Security Council reports ongoing Israeli military activities in southern Syria
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%1%
The UN Security Council noted Israeli incursions, shelling, and arrests in southern Syria, highlighting continued military tensions that undermine prospects for diplomatic normalization between Israel and Syria by mid-2026.
UN Security Council holds meetings on Syria's political and humanitarian situation
In June 2026, the UN Security Council discussed Syria's political developments and humanitarian issues, noting steps toward normalization of bilateral relations by some members, but ongoing military concerns persisted. This tempered optimism for normalization by year-end.
EU reinstates Cooperation Agreement with Syria, signaling support for Syria’s recovery
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%3%
On June 1, 2026, the European Council reinstated the Cooperation Agreement with Syria, facilitating economic and trade relations and signaling international support for Syria’s transition. This development suggested improving international relations for Syria, indirectly supporting prospects for normalization with Israel by year-end.
UN Security Council notes ongoing Israeli military activities in southern Syria
Yes rises to 13%2%
The UN Security Council reported Israeli incursions and shelling in southern Syria, underscoring persistent security tensions that complicate normalization prospects and likely suppress market prices for near-term normalization.
Israel Katz Outlines Indefinite Military Presence in Syrian and Lebanese Security Zones
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced a policy to maintain IDF troops indefinitely in security zones within Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza, signaling that military occupation would persist over diplomatic resolution.
UN Security Council supports Syria’s transition and normalization efforts
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
The UN Security Council's December 2025 visit and subsequent support for Syria's interim government and transition, including steps to normalize bilateral relations, indicated international backing for Syria's recovery but did not translate into immediate normalization with Israel, maintaining market caution.
Israeli Defense Minister declares IDF will remain in Syria security zones indefinitely
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%4%
Defense Minister Israel Katz announced that the IDF will remain in its established security zones in Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza without any time limit, reducing the likelihood of a near-term normalization agreement.
Netanyahu announces IDF will remain in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza indefinitely
June 30, 2026 drops to 1%11%
Prime Minister Netanyahu stated the IDF would stay in security zones in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza without time limit to protect borders from jihadist threats, signaling a hardline military posture that undermined diplomatic normalization efforts with Syria.
Israel Katz Vows IDF Will Remain in Syria and Lebanon Security Zones
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%4%
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz declared that the IDF will remain in security zones in Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza without any time limit, reducing the likelihood of a mutual diplomatic breakthrough.
Israel Vows to Remain in Syrian and Lebanese Security Zones Indefinitely
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%3%
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced that the IDF will remain in security zones in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza indefinitely, creating a major roadblock for any diplomatic normalization.
Israeli Defense Minister Katz Vows IDF Will Remain in Syria and Lebanon Security Zones Indefinitely
December 31, 2026 drops to 9%5%
Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that the IDF will remain in security zones in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza without any time limit, directly challenging prospects of diplomatic normalization.
Syria's Foreign Minister expresses hope for calm and stable relations with Israel
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%3%
In Brussels, Syria's Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani expressed hope for calm and stable relations with Israel but noted no results yet, citing Israeli threats and destabilization, underscoring ongoing tensions and lack of formal normalization.
US-led military coordination meeting between Israel, Lebanon, and America
A military coordination meeting discussed Israeli withdrawal and security arrangements, reflecting ongoing regional security complexities that indirectly affect Israel-Syria normalization prospects by mid-2026.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar states no near-term normalization with Syria expected
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%2%
Saar clarified that current contacts with Syria focus on limited security understandings rather than political normalization, reinforcing market skepticism and maintaining low price levels for normalization outcomes.
President Trump signals progress on Middle East peace deals including Syria
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%3%
In late May 2026, President Trump suggested that Israel's neighbors, including Syria, should sign the Abraham Accords as part of a broader peace deal, boosting market optimism temporarily. However, no formal agreement was announced, and skepticism remained.
Military coordination meeting held between Lebanese, Israeli, and American delegations
On May 29, 2026, a military coordination meeting took place at the Pentagon involving Lebanese, Israeli, and American officials to discuss security arrangements, including Israeli army withdrawal and disarmament of Hezbollah. This event highlighted ongoing regional security negotiations but did not directly advance Israel-Syria normalization, contributing to cautious market sentiment for near-term normalization.
U.S. allies show limited progress on Arab-Israel normalization including Syria
Reports on May 29 indicated that while Syria has shown interest in joining the Abraham Accords, no agreement has been reached, reflecting ongoing negotiations but no formal normalization. This contributed to the market's low probability for normalization by mid-2026.
Trump suggests Abraham Accords expansion to include Syria
December 31, 2026 drops to 9%5%
President Trump announced that the Abraham Accords could potentially be expanded to include Syria, signaling renewed diplomatic momentum for normalization efforts.
High-level security talks between Israel and Lebanon launched at the Pentagon
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
On May 29, 2026, military delegations from Israel and Lebanon began a security track of negotiations at the Pentagon, facilitated by the United States, aiming to improve communication and coordination and extend a cessation of hostilities. This diplomatic initiative marked progress in Israel's regional relations but did not involve Syria, thus not directly affecting Israel-Syria normalization prospects.
Trump chairs Israel-Lebanon peace talks in Washington
Yes dips to 13%1%
President Trump facilitated high-level peace talks between Israel and Lebanon, signaling renewed diplomatic engagement in the region and boosting confidence in broader Arab-Israel normalization efforts.
U.S. Allies Skeptical of Trump's Push for Arab-Israel Normalization
December 31, 2026 drops to 9%5%
Reports emerged questioning the viability of Donald Trump's aggressive push for expanding the Abraham Accords to include neighbors like Syria, causing a temporary dip in normalization expectations.
Syrian President al-Sharaa states normalization attempts with Israel unsuccessful
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa publicly acknowledged that efforts to normalize relations with Israel had failed, confirming the market's collapse in probability for normalization by mid-2026.
Reports indicate acceleration toward U.S.-brokered Israel-Syria security deal and possible embassy opening
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%3%
Syrian sources reported that U.S. President Trump is seeking a signing ceremony between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and President al-Sharaa for a security deal, with potential elevation to full diplomatic normalization including an Israeli embassy in Damascus. Despite this optimism, no official announcement was made by May end, keeping market prices low.
President Trump urges more Middle Eastern countries to normalize relations with Israel
President Trump reiterated calls for additional Middle Eastern nations, including Syria, to normalize relations with Israel as part of a broader peace deal with Iran, signaling political support but no concrete agreement, maintaining market caution.
Trump demands Iran peace deal include additional countries joining Abraham Accords
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%2%
U.S. President Donald Trump pushed for expanding the Abraham Accords to include more Arab states as part of a broader regional peace deal, briefly raising hopes for normalization.
Trump urges Middle East nations to normalize relations with Israel
Yes rises to 4%1%
President Trump reiterated his call for additional countries to join the Abraham Accords, reigniting diplomatic momentum for normalization efforts including with Syria.
Trump Advocates Expansion of Abraham Accords to Include Syria
June 30, 2026 rises to 4%1%
Former President Trump publicly suggested that Israel's neighbors, including Syria, should join the Abraham Accords as part of a broader peace deal, raising hopes but no formal agreements. This statement briefly supported market interest in normalization by mid-2026.
Trump Pushes for Expansion of Abraham Accords to Include Syria and Saudi Arabia
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%2%
U.S. President Donald Trump suggested that regional peace deals should require Israel's neighbors, including Syria, to join the Abraham Accords, though allies remained skeptical of forced normalization.
Trump Reiterates Call for Middle East Normalization with Israel
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%3%
President Trump renewed his push for more Middle Eastern countries to normalize relations with Israel, potentially accelerating diplomatic momentum including with Syria.
Trump Urges Middle East Nations to Join Abraham Accords in Iran Deal Push
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
President Donald Trump called on several Middle Eastern nations to join the Abraham Accords to normalize relations with Israel, though analysts remained skeptical of immediate breakthroughs.
Iran claims downing Israeli surveillance drone over Lebanon
Yes dips to 1%3%
The incident escalated tensions in the region, potentially disrupting diplomatic momentum between Israel and Syria amid ongoing military standoffs.
Iran claims it downed an Israeli surveillance drone; IDF says not familiar with incident
The incident heightened regional tensions and underscored the ongoing security challenges between Israel and its neighbors.
Analysis shows Syria and Lebanon prefer security arrangements over full normalization with Israel
Yes rises to 12%1%
A Stimson Center report highlighted that both Syria and Lebanon currently favor limited security arrangements with Israel rather than full diplomatic normalization, reflecting ongoing mistrust and regional complexities that hinder formal peace agreements.
Syria and Lebanon pursue separate negotiation tracks with Israel
The Stimson Center reported that both countries are pursuing parallel talks with Israel, preferring security arrangements over full diplomatic normalization.
Analyst: Syria and Lebanon prefer security arrangements over full normalization with Israel
Geopolitical analysis indicated that Syria and Lebanon favor limited security arrangements with Israel rather than full diplomatic normalization, reflecting regional caution and contributing to low market expectations for normalization by mid-2026.
Analysis: Syria prefers security arrangements over full normalization with Israel
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
A geopolitical analysis highlighted that Syria and Lebanon prefer limited security arrangements with Israel rather than full diplomatic normalization, reflecting deep mistrust and complicating prospects for official relations.
Analyst reports Syria prefers security arrangements over full normalization with Israel
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
A geopolitical analyst noted Syria’s preference for security arrangements rather than full diplomatic normalization with Israel, highlighting persistent mistrust and limiting prospects for formal relations in 2026.
Analyst reports Syria and Israel prefer security arrangements over full normalization
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%1%
A geopolitical analyst highlighted that both Syria and Israel favored new security arrangements rather than full diplomatic normalization, reflecting deep mistrust and diverging priorities. This tempered market expectations for normalization by June 30, 2026.
Analysis highlights preference for security arrangements over full normalization between Israel and Syria
A Stimson Center report noted that both Syria and Lebanon prefer limited security arrangements with Israel rather than full diplomatic normalization, reflecting deep mistrust and geopolitical complexities. This analysis likely contributed to market skepticism about normalization by mid-2026.
Syria and Lebanon Pursue Security Arrangements Over Normalization
An analysis highlighted that both Syria and Lebanon prefer limited security arrangements with Israel to manage military pressure rather than pursuing full diplomatic normalization.
Syria and Lebanon Prefer Limited Security Deals Over Full Normalization With Israel
An analysis highlighted that both Syria and Lebanon prefer limited security arrangements with Israel over full diplomatic normalization, reinforcing the market's low probability of a formal diplomatic breakthrough.
Analysis: Syria and Lebanon prefer security arrangements over full normalization with Israel
Analysts noted that both Syria and Lebanon seek limited security arrangements with Israel rather than full diplomatic normalization, reflecting deep mistrust and regional complexities that hinder a peace treaty.
Analysis: Syria and Lebanon prefer security arrangements with Israel over normalization
A Stimson Center analysis reported that both Syria and Lebanon are pursuing limited security arrangements with Israel rather than full diplomatic normalization, reflecting ongoing mistrust and strategic caution. This reinforced market sentiment that normalization was unlikely in the near term.
Syria and Lebanon Prefer Limited Security Arrangements Over Diplomatic Normalization with Israel
An analysis highlighted that both Syria and Lebanon are pursuing separate negotiation tracks with Israel focused on limited security arrangements and territorial integrity rather than full diplomatic normalization.
Stimson Center report: Syria and Lebanon pursue separate negotiation tracks with Israel
Yes rises to 11%4%
A Stimson Center analysis noted that Lebanon and Syria are now pursuing separate diplomatic efforts with Israel, creating new opportunities for normalization.
Analysts report Syria and Israel prefer security arrangements over diplomatic normalization
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%4%
By May 2026, analysts noted that both Syria and Israel favored new security arrangements rather than full diplomatic normalization, reflecting entrenched positions and public opposition in Syria. This assessment aligned with the market's very low probability for normalization by mid-2026.
Stimson Center reports Syria and Israel pursue parallel security talks
A Stimson Center analysis noted that both Syria and Lebanon are pursuing separate negotiation tracks with Israel, preferring security arrangements over full diplomatic normalization.
Parallel talks show Syria prefers security arrangements over full normalization with Israel
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%3%
Analysis revealed that Syria and Lebanon prefer limited security arrangements with Israel rather than full diplomatic normalization, reflecting deep mistrust and geopolitical complexities that limit progress toward formal relations.
Reports Highlight Syria and Lebanon Preferring Security Arrangements Over Full Normalization with Israel
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%1%
Geopolitical analyses and regional reports confirmed that Syria and Israel are pursuing limited security arrangements and border de-escalation rather than full diplomatic normalization.
Analysis shows Syria prefers security arrangements over full normalization with Israel
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%1%
A geopolitical analysis highlighted that Syria and Lebanon prefer limited security arrangements with Israel rather than full diplomatic normalization, reflecting deep mistrust and complicating prospects for formal relations, which pressured market prices downward.
Syria and Lebanon Prioritize Security Arrangements Over Diplomatic Normalization with Israel
An analysis highlighted that both Syria and Lebanon prefer limited security arrangements with Israel to manage border tensions rather than pursuing full diplomatic normalization, keeping the probability of a formal treaty low.
U.S. Mediates Israeli-Syrian Intelligence Coordination Agreement in Jordan
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%1%
A joint 'fusion mechanism' for intelligence sharing was established between Israel, Syria, and the U.S. in Amman, marking a significant step toward de-escalation and formalizing security cooperation.
Analysis shows Syria prefers limited security arrangements with Israel over full normalization
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
A Stimson Center report highlighted that Syria and Lebanon prefer security arrangements with Israel rather than full diplomatic normalization, reflecting ongoing mistrust and complicating prospects for formal relations. This contributed to market price declines.
Analysis highlights Syria and Lebanon prefer security arrangements over diplomatic normalization with Israel
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%2%
A Stimson Center report detailed that both Syria and Lebanon favored new security arrangements with Israel rather than full diplomatic normalization, indicating limited prospects for formal relations. This reinforced market skepticism about normalization by June 30, 2026.
Analysis highlights Syria and Lebanon prefer security arrangements over full normalization with Israel
A geopolitical analysis noted that both Syria and Lebanon favored new security arrangements with Israel rather than full diplomatic normalization, reflecting ongoing mistrust and strategic priorities. This analysis likely contributed to the market's low confidence in normalization by mid-2026.
Analysis highlights preference for security arrangements over full normalization between Syria and Israel
Analysts noted that both Syria and Lebanon prefer limited security arrangements with Israel rather than full diplomatic normalization, reflecting deep mistrust and unresolved regional issues. This tempered market expectations for a full normalization deal by June 30 or December 31, 2026.
Syria and Lebanon pursue separate security tracks with Israel over diplomatic normalization
An analysis highlighted that both Syria and Lebanon prefer limited security arrangements with Israel to manage border tensions rather than pursuing full diplomatic normalization.
Analysis: Syria and Lebanon pursue separate negotiation tracks with Israel, preferring security arrangements over full normalization
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%2%
A geopolitical analysis highlighted that Syria and Lebanon are focusing on security arrangements rather than diplomatic normalization with Israel, reflecting deep mistrust and complex regional dynamics. This analysis reinforced market skepticism about formal normalization by 2026.
Parallel talks reshape Syria-Lebanon relations, favor security deals over normalization
Analysts noted Syria and Lebanon prefer limited security arrangements with Israel rather than full normalization, with Syria securing greater US support and distancing from Iranian influence, indicating normalization remains unlikely soon.
Parallel talks with Israel reshaping Syria‑Lebanon relations
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
An analysis piece noted that parallel talks were reshaping Syria‑Lebanon relations and that both Damascus and Beirut preferred limited security arrangements over full normalization. The cautious tone contributed to a modest dip in the December‑2026 “Yes” price to 12 % (down from 14 % on 2026‑05‑21).
Analysis shows Syria and Lebanon prefer security arrangements over full normalization with Israel
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%3%
A geopolitical analysis highlighted that both Syria and Lebanon are pursuing limited security arrangements with Israel rather than full diplomatic normalization, reflecting deep mistrust and divergent priorities. This tempered market expectations for formal diplomatic relations soon.
Analyst reports Syria and Lebanon prefer security arrangements over full normalization with Israel
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%1%
A geopolitical analyst noted that Syria and Lebanon are pursuing separate talks with Israel, favoring limited security arrangements rather than full diplomatic normalization, indicating continued barriers to formal relations and contributing to market pessimism.
Parallel Talks with Israel reshaping Syria-Lebanon relations
A Stimson Center analysis noted that both Syria and Lebanon prefer new security arrangements with Israel over full diplomatic normalization, reflecting a strategic shift in their approaches.
Analyst reports Syria prefers security arrangements over full normalization with Israel
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%1%
Analyst Joe Macaron noted that Syria currently favors new security arrangements with Israel rather than full diplomatic normalization, reflecting deep mistrust and ongoing regional complexities despite U.S. mediation efforts.
Syria and Lebanon Pursue Separate Security Tracks with Israel Over Normalization
An analysis highlighted that both Syria and Lebanon prefer limited security arrangements with Israel to restrain military pressure rather than pursuing full diplomatic normalization.
Analysis highlights Syria's preference for security arrangements over full normalization with Israel
A Stimson Center report detailed that Syria and Lebanon prefer new security arrangements with Israel rather than full diplomatic normalization, reflecting deep mistrust and diverging priorities. This dampened market optimism for normalization by June 30, 2026.
Analyst notes Syria prefers security arrangements over full normalization with Israel
Geopolitical analysis highlighted Syria’s preference for limited security agreements rather than full diplomatic normalization with Israel, reflecting deep mistrust and complicating prospects for formal relations within the near term.
Syrian President al-Sharaa reiterates seriousness about security deal but notes Israeli brutality
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%1%
Al-Sharaa emphasized Syria's seriousness about reaching a security agreement with Israel to maintain regional stability but criticized Israeli military actions as brutal. This mixed message reflected ongoing tensions and stalled progress, contributing to continued low market confidence in normalization by mid-2026.
European Union restores full application of Cooperation Agreement with Syria
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%2%
The European Council reinstated the full application of the EU-Syria Cooperation Agreement, signaling increased international engagement with Syria's interim government and supporting its reintegration into the global economy. This development may facilitate Syria's diplomatic normalization efforts, including with Israel.
U.S.-Mediated Talks Resume Between Israel and Syria on Security Issues
High-level security negotiations between Israel and Syria resumed in Paris under U.S. and French mediation, signaling ongoing dialogue but no immediate breakthrough on normalization. This maintained modest market optimism for eventual normalization by end of 2026.
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa reiterates conditions for normalization with Israel
Al-Sharaa emphasized that normalization would require Israel to cease airstrikes and address the Golan Heights dispute, signaling that formal diplomatic relations remain distant. This statement contributed to market stabilization at low probabilities.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris but make no concrete progress
Yes dips to 11%3%
Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris for a U.S.-mediated dialogue, agreeing only to set up a joint communication cell. The lack of substantive agreements dampened market expectations that formal diplomatic ties would be announced by year‑end, contributing to the price drop from 14% to 11% for the December‑2026 outcome and keeping the June‑2026 price low.
Syrian Foreign Minister calls for comprehensive security agreement with Israel
June 30, 2026 rises to 6%2%
Syria's Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani emphasized the need for a calm and comprehensive security agreement with Israel, separating normalization from security arrangements and demanding respect for Syria’s sovereignty and withdrawal from seized territories.
Syrian FM Calls for Return to 1974 Security Agreement Instead of Diplomatic Normalization
June 30, 2026 rises to 4%1%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani emphasized that Damascus views diplomatic normalization and a security framework as separate processes, calling for a return to the 1974 security agreement rather than establishing new diplomatic ties.
Syria’s top diplomat reiterates need for security agreement with Israel
Foreign Minister Al-Shaibani told Euronews that Syria hopes negotiations will lead to a calm and comprehensive agreement respecting sovereignty, separating normalization from security arrangements. This reinforced the market’s view that normalization was unlikely soon without security progress.
Syrian Foreign Minister distinguishes security agreement from normalization
June 30, 2026 rises to 4%3%
Foreign Minister Al-Shaibani clarified that Damascus views a security agreement and diplomatic normalization as separate processes, rejecting normalization under military pressure.
Syria calls for comprehensive security agreement with Israel, rejecting normalization under military pressure
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Syria’s top diplomat emphasized the need for a security agreement respecting sovereignty and rejected normalization imposed by force, indicating ongoing negotiations but no breakthrough in formal diplomatic relations.
Syrian Foreign Minister calls for comprehensive security agreement with Israel
Syria's Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani publicly stated the desire for a security agreement with Israel, emphasizing separation of normalization from peace framework and calling for respect of Syria's sovereignty. This reinforced the view that normalization was not imminent but that security talks were ongoing, slightly affecting market optimism.
Syria Seeks Security Agreement with Israel but Rejects Normalization
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani stated that Damascus wants a comprehensive security agreement with Israel but views normalization of diplomatic relations as a separate process that is currently off the table.
Syria Foreign Minister calls for comprehensive security agreement with Israel rather than normalization
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani stated that Syria needs a comprehensive security agreement with Israel but emphasized that Damascus views diplomatic normalization and a peace framework as separate processes.
Syria's Foreign Minister calls for comprehensive security agreement with Israel
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%2%
Syria's top diplomat emphasized the need for a calm and comprehensive security agreement respecting Syria's sovereignty, distinguishing it from normalization of diplomatic relations. This statement highlighted Syria's preference for security arrangements over full normalization, dampening market optimism for diplomatic normalization by June 30, 2026.
Syria Foreign Minister Al-Shaibani: Normalization separate from peace framework
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani reiterated that normalization and peace agreements are separate processes, emphasizing no military provocation.
Syria Decouples Normalization From Security Agreement in Exclusive Interview
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani clarified that Damascus views a security agreement and diplomatic normalization as separate processes, dampening hopes for immediate formal diplomatic ties.
U.S.‑mediated Israel‑Syria talks resume in Paris
December 31, 2026 jumps to 13%6%
The Associated Press reported that senior officials from Israel and Syria met in Paris under U.S. mediation to discuss a security agreement, briefly reviving hopes of a formal diplomatic accord and causing a short‑term price rebound.
Syria Insists Normalization and Security Agreements are Separate Processes
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%1%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani clarified that Damascus views a security agreement and diplomatic normalization as entirely separate, dampening hopes for near-term formal normalization.
Syria's foreign minister calls for comprehensive security agreement with Israel
Yes dips to 7%4%
Syria's foreign minister Asaad al-Shaibani emphasized the need for a comprehensive security agreement with Israel, indicating a shift toward diplomatic engagement.
Syria Seeks Security Agreement with Israel, Rejects Normalization Under Military Force
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani clarified that Damascus distinguishes between a security agreement and diplomatic normalization, rejecting the latter if imposed through military pressure.
Syria Demands Security Agreement and Israeli Withdrawal, Separating Peace from Normalization
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%1%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani emphasized that Damascus views a security agreement and diplomatic normalization as separate processes, insisting that normalization cannot occur under military provocation.
Syria demands comprehensive security agreement with Israel, separate from normalization
Syria’s top diplomat called for a return to the 1974 security agreement and emphasized that normalization and peace framework are separate, underscoring Syria’s insistence on security guarantees before full diplomatic ties.
Syria insists on security agreement over diplomatic normalization with Israel
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%1%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani clarified that Damascus views a security framework and diplomatic normalization as separate processes, prioritizing a security agreement over full normalization.
Syria's Foreign Minister calls for comprehensive security agreement with Israel
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
Syria's Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani publicly stated the desire for a calm and comprehensive security agreement with Israel, distinguishing it from full normalization. This reinforced the view that security arrangements were prioritized over diplomatic normalization, impacting market sentiment.
Syria seeks comprehensive security agreement with Israel, separating it from diplomatic normalization
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%1%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani stated that Syria wants a comprehensive security agreement with Israel but views normalization of diplomatic relations and a peace framework as separate processes.
US-mediated Israeli-Syrian talks resume in Paris aiming for security agreement
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
Renewed U.S.-mediated talks in Paris sought to reactivate a 1974 disengagement agreement and Israeli withdrawal from buffer zones, but Israeli reluctance to withdraw limited progress, maintaining low market confidence.
Syria's Foreign Minister Al Shibani expresses hope for calm and stable relations with Israel
Syria's Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani stated that Syria aims for calm and stable relations with Israel but noted that full restoration depends on a new security agreement. This indicated ongoing negotiations but no formal diplomatic normalization yet.
Syria's Foreign Minister says country seeks calm and stable relations with Israel but fears armed militias
June 30, 2026 drops to 2%5%
Syria's Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani expressed desire for stable relations with Israel but highlighted concerns about armed militias, reflecting ongoing tensions and uncertainty that contributed to low market confidence in normalization by mid-2026.
Syrian Foreign Minister Expresses Desire for Stable Relations but Confirms No Results Reached
June 30, 2026 rises to 3%2%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani stated that Syria hopes for calm and stable relations with Israel to focus on reconstruction, but admitted that talks have not yet yielded concrete results.
Syria's Foreign Minister calls for calm relations and security agreement with Israel
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
Syria's Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani emphasized the need for a comprehensive security agreement with Israel and expressed hope for calm and stable relations, but noted ongoing threats and no normalization yet, sustaining market uncertainty.
Syria aims for stable relations with Israel but no results yet, says Foreign Minister
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%1%
Syria's Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani stated Syria desires calm and stable relations with Israel but acknowledged no agreement has been reached yet, indicating ongoing uncertainty and limited progress.
EU resumes 1978 cooperation agreement with Syria
Yes dips to 11%3%
The European Union announced it would fully resume its 1978 cooperation agreement with Syria, marking a significant diplomatic step that could facilitate broader normalization efforts.
Syrian Foreign Minister Says Damascus Seeks Peace, Not Normalization
December 31, 2026 dips to 7%4%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani clarified that Syria is pursuing a security agreement to guarantee stability and sovereignty, but explicitly rejected political normalization under military pressure.
Syria’s foreign minister says EU cooperation restored, aims for stable ties with Israel
December 31, 2026 jumps to 14%5%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al‑Shaibani announced that the EU had restored a cooperation agreement with Syria and that Damascus was seeking a “calm and stable” relationship with Israel. The combined diplomatic boost revived market optimism, accounting for the May 5 surge (+6 pts) and the sustained rise to ~14 % by mid‑May for the December outcome.
Syria Aiming for Stable Relations With Israel, Says Foreign Minister Al Shibani
December 31, 2026 jumps to 14%7%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani stated that Syria wants calm and stable relations with Israel but emphasized that full restoration depends on striking a new security agreement rather than immediate diplomatic normalization.
Syrian Foreign Minister Visits EU, Emphasizes Security Over Normalization
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%2%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani visited Brussels and stated that Syria wants calm and stable relations, but focused heavily on restoring the 1974 border security agreement rather than full diplomatic normalization.
Syria’s Foreign Minister Al Shibani calls for calm, stable relations with Israel
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%2%
Syria’s Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani expressed desire for calm and stable relations with Israel but emphasized the need for a new security agreement. This underscored ongoing challenges and contributed to market declines for near-term normalization.
Hezbollah resists disarmament amid Lebanon-Israel talks
Hezbollah's refusal to disarm despite Lebanese government efforts and ongoing Israel-Lebanon talks highlights persistent regional instability. This resistance complicates broader peace efforts, including normalization between Israel and Syria, keeping market confidence low.
Hezbollah refuses to abide by any agreements from Lebanon-Israel talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%4%
Hezbollah publicly rejected any agreements resulting from Lebanon-Israel talks, maintaining its armed stance and complicating regional peace efforts. This hardened position contributed to skepticism about broader normalization efforts involving Israel and its neighbors, including Syria.
Syria aims for calm and stable relations with Israel but no results yet
Syria's Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani expressed hope for calm and stable relations with Israel but acknowledged no results yet, citing the need for a new security agreement. This tempered market expectations for normalization by mid-2026.
Syrian Foreign Minister Seeks Stable Relations with Israel but Rules Out Imposed Normalization
December 31, 2026 drops to 7%6%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani stated that Syria wants calm and stable relations with Israel through a security agreement, but explicitly distinguished this from full diplomatic normalization.
Syrian Foreign Minister Says Country Seeks Stable Relations but Normalization Remains Separate
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%3%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani stated that Syria wants calm and stable relations with Israel through a security agreement, but emphasized that diplomatic normalization and a peace framework are separate processes.
Syria's minister appears to take aim at Hezbollah for plotting attacks on Syrian territory
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%
Syrian minister Al Shibani addressed Hezbollah's activities from Lebanon, stating 'there are some armed militias working out of Lebanon outside the control of the authorities and this is worrying to us.' This security concern may have influenced market sentiment.
Syrian minister calls for reactivating UN mission on Israeli-Syrian border
December 31, 2026 dips to 7%2%
Syria’s minister Al Shibani advocated reactivating the UN Disengagement Observer Force on the Israeli-Syrian border, signaling Syria’s interest in stabilizing relations but not full normalization yet.
Syrian Foreign Minister Expresses Desire for Stable Relations but Cites Lack of Results
December 31, 2026 rises to 15%3%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani stated that Syria wants calm and stable relations with Israel, but noted that negotiations have not yet yielded any concrete results.
Syrian Foreign Minister Al Shibani States Syria Seeks Calm Relations but Rules Out Normalization
December 31, 2026 drops to 7%5%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani clarified that Syria wants calm and stable relations with Israel but prefers limited security arrangements over full diplomatic normalization, dampening hopes for a formal treaty.
EU-Syria cooperation agreement restored after 2011 crackdown
The EU announced it had restored its cooperation agreement with Syria, removing trade restrictions and signaling improved diplomatic relations.
Syrian Foreign Minister calls for comprehensive security agreement with Israel
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Syria's Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani emphasized the need for a return to the 1974 security agreement and Israeli withdrawal from seized territories, while distinguishing normalization from peace framework. This nuanced stance reflected ongoing dialogue but also persistent challenges, contributing to market uncertainty and price declines.
Syrian Foreign Minister says country aims for stable relations but no results reached yet
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%2%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani stated that Syria wants calm and stable relations with Israel, but noted that negotiations have not yet yielded results and depend on a new security agreement.
Syria seeks calm and stable relations with Israel but fears armed militias
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Syria's Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani expressed desire for stable relations with Israel contingent on a security agreement, but highlighted ongoing fears of armed militias and Israeli military actions, indicating normalization remains distant and contributing to low market confidence.
Lebanon and Israel hold first direct diplomatic talks in decades in Washington
December 31, 2026 jumps to 16%9%
Lebanon and Israel held direct talks brokered by the U.S., marking a historic step in regional diplomacy. Although Hezbollah opposed the talks and no breakthrough was reached, the event influenced market perceptions about regional normalization prospects, indirectly affecting the Israel-Syria market.
Market skepticism peaks as no official normalization announced by deadline
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
By May 2026, despite ongoing talks and mechanisms, no official announcement of diplomatic normalization was made by Israel or Syria, leading to a sharp decline in market prices reflecting low probability of near-term normalization.
Israeli cabinet discusses settlement‑related violence, no new diplomatic moves with Syria
December 31, 2026 jumps to 14%7%
A cabinet meeting focused on settler violence in the West Bank diverted attention from the Israel‑Syria track, reinforcing scepticism about any near‑term normalisation and pushing the market to its lowest point in the window.
Normalization prospects hit low amid no official announcements
December 31, 2026 dips to 7%2%
By May 2026, no official announcements of diplomatic relations were made by Israel or Syria, and market prices for normalization reached historic lows reflecting diminished expectations.
Syrian official states no progress on strategic files without Israeli withdrawal from seized territories
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%4%
A Syrian official declared that moving forward on strategic agreements with Israel is impossible without a clear timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal from Syrian territory seized since late 2024, dampening hopes for normalization and causing market prices to fall to lows.
Syrian President al-Sharaa states normalization talks failed as Israel changed stance
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa publicly stated that normalization talks with Israel failed due to Israel changing its mind at the last minute, reinforcing market pessimism about formal diplomatic relations.
Israel intensifies military strikes in southern Syria amid peace talks
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%3%
Israeli drone strikes targeted vehicles and locations in southern Syria and Lebanon, killing civilians and escalating tensions, undermining peace talks and reducing market confidence in normalization by mid-2026.
Reports accuse Israel of sabotaging peace talks with intensified attacks in Syria and Lebanon
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%
Reports emerged accusing Israel of undermining peace talks by continuing military strikes in Syria and Lebanon, increasing tensions and reducing market confidence in normalization prospects by mid-2026.
Lebanese Prime Minister visits Damascus amid parallel talks with Israel
Yes dips to 9%1%
Lebanese PM Nawaf Salam visited Damascus as part of intensified regional talks involving Israel, Syria, and Lebanon focusing on security arrangements rather than full normalization, reflecting ongoing mistrust and cautious progress.
Syrian trial of former Assad officials begins
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%4%
The high‑profile trial shifted domestic focus inward, further diminishing expectations of external diplomatic moves with Israel.
Lebanese Prime Minister visits Damascus amid regional talks
June 30, 2026 rises to 7%2%
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam visited Damascus as part of intensified regional diplomatic efforts, reflecting overlapping interests in de-escalation and security arrangements involving Syria and Israel, though full normalization remained distant.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 jumps to 13%6%
Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris for a second round of U.S.-mediated negotiations, issuing a joint statement emphasizing respect for Syria's sovereignty and Israel's security, which modestly improved market expectations for a December 2026 diplomatic breakthrough.
EU leaders visit Syria, pledge support for reconstruction
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%3%
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President António Costa met Syrian interim President Ahmad al‑Sharaa, offering substantial aid and signaling a broader diplomatic opening that could pave the way for Israel‑Syria talks.
Market reacts to reports of ongoing indirect talks but no formal normalization between Israel and Syria
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%
Despite reports of indirect talks and some diplomatic engagement, no official announcements of normalization occurred. Continued Israeli military actions and Syrian domestic opposition kept market confidence low, reflected in price troughs around early May.
Israeli‑Syrian diplomatic talks stall after security flare‑up
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%3%
Following the Paris meeting, reports emerged that a renewed Hezbollah‑linked attack in Damascus led both sides to suspend further negotiations, sending the market sharply lower as the prospect of a formal agreement dimmed.
Bombing at Homs mosque kills eight and wounds eighteen
December 31, 2026 drops to 8%5%
A terrorist attack on a mosque in Homs heightened security concerns and underscored ongoing instability in Syria, reducing confidence that diplomatic breakthroughs with Israel were imminent.
U.S.-mediated Syria-Israel talks resume in Paris aiming for security agreement
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%4%
Syria and Israel resumed U.S.-mediated talks in Paris to reactivate a 1974 disengagement agreement and discuss Israeli withdrawal from buffer zones. This diplomatic effort raised hopes for normalization but progress remained uncertain, causing market fluctuations in probabilities for normalization by mid-2026 and end of 2026.
Market confidence drops amid stalled progress and unresolved core issues
December 31, 2026 drops to 9%5%
Despite diplomatic mechanisms in place, lack of official announcements and unresolved disputes over Israeli troop presence and full normalization led to market price declines reflecting skepticism about deal completion.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%3%
Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks, agreeing to set up a joint communication cell to manage security and explore diplomatic engagement, boosting expectations of normalization.
Syrian government deal with Kurdish fighters unravels amid new clashes and IS prisoner escapes
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
The breakdown of the ceasefire and renewed fighting between Syrian government forces and Kurdish fighters, along with Islamic State prisoner escapes, further destabilized Syria, diminishing prospects for Israel-Syria diplomatic normalization within 2026.
Israel turns away ship with stolen Ukrainian grain, easing diplomatic tensions
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Israel rejected the Panormitis ship carrying stolen Ukrainian grain, a diplomatic win for Kyiv that helped ease tensions. This event, while peripheral, reflected Israel's responsiveness to international pressure amid complex regional diplomacy.
Market confidence hits low amid stalled talks and unresolved Israeli troop withdrawal
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%2%
Continued lack of progress on key issues such as Israeli withdrawal from Syrian territory and security guarantees led to a sharp decline in market confidence for normalization by June 2026.
Syrian President al-Sharaa states Israel changed mind on normalization at last minute
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
Al-Sharaa publicly declared that despite good progress, Israel withdrew from normalization talks at the last minute, confirming the market's low confidence in a formal diplomatic agreement by end of 2026.
Israel turns away ship with stolen Ukrainian grain in win for Kyiv
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%3%
Israel rejected a ship carrying grain stolen from Ukrainian territories, responding to diplomatic pressure from Ukraine. This event reflects Israel's complex regional diplomacy but does not directly affect Israel-Syria normalization prospects, maintaining market skepticism.
Israel turns away ship with stolen Ukrainian grain amid diplomatic row
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
Israel rejected a shipment of grain stolen from Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories, responding to Ukrainian diplomatic pressure. While unrelated directly to Israel-Syria relations, this event reflected Israel's complex regional diplomacy and its balancing act amid multiple conflicts, contributing to cautious market sentiment on normalization prospects.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris on security agreement
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks aimed at a security agreement to reduce tensions. They agreed to establish a joint communication cell for coordination on intelligence, military de-escalation, and diplomatic engagement, marking a tentative step but no formal normalization yet.
Israel approves $334 million plan to expand settlements in occupied Golan Heights
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%4%
Israel's government announced a significant investment to develop settlements in the Golan Heights, signaling a firm stance on retaining control and complicating prospects for normalization with Syria.
UN urges Israel to halt settlement expansion in occupied Syrian Golan Heights
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
The UN condemned Israel's approval of a $334 million plan to expand settlements in the occupied Golan Heights, a move seen as undermining security talks and peace prospects. Syrian President al-Sharaa reiterated Syria's demand for Israeli withdrawal to 1974 lines, reinforcing tensions and negatively impacting market confidence.
Israel and Syria agree to establish joint communication cell during Paris talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%4%
During the resumed U.S.-brokered talks in Paris, Israel and Syria agreed to create a joint communication cell to facilitate intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, and diplomatic engagement, marking a significant but preliminary step toward reducing hostilities without formal diplomatic normalization.
Israel rejects allegations over ship with stolen Ukrainian grain amid diplomatic row with Kyiv
Yes dips to 11%3%
Israel faced diplomatic tensions with Ukraine over ships carrying stolen Ukrainian grain docking at Israeli ports. This incident strained Israel's international relations and distracted from regional diplomatic efforts, including with Syria, contributing to market skepticism about normalization prospects.
UN calls on Israel to halt settlement expansion in occupied Syrian Golan Heights
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%4%
The UN urged Israel to stop expanding settlements in the Golan Heights, reinforcing international opposition to Israeli annexation and settlement policies, which hinder normalization talks.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar Rejects Ukrainian Grain Ship Allegations
Israel rejected Ukrainian accusations over a grain ship, which could have damaged bilateral relations. This incident occurred during a period of heightened diplomatic sensitivity.
Syria’s President Ahmed al-Sharaa declares support for disarming Hezbollah
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa publicly supported Lebanon's efforts to disarm Hezbollah, marking a shift from previous Syrian support for the group. This convergence of interests with Israel against Hezbollah suggested potential for cooperation but did not translate into normalization, reflecting ongoing tensions and stalled efforts.
Israeli FM rejects Ukraine’s allegations over stolen grain ship, straining relations
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%2%
Ukraine accused Israel of allowing ships carrying stolen Ukrainian grain to dock in Haifa, leading to diplomatic tensions. Israeli FM rejected the allegations publicly, reflecting complex regional relations but unrelated to Israel-Syria normalization.
Israel and Syria share common fight against Hezbollah but normalization stalled
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa publicly supported disarming Hezbollah, aligning interests with Israel. However, efforts to bridge relations and normalize ties stalled, reflecting ongoing mistrust and unresolved issues despite shared security concerns.
Israeli Foreign Minister rejects Ukrainian allegations over stolen grain ship
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Tensions between Israel and Ukraine rose over allegations of stolen Ukrainian grain being unloaded in Israel. While unrelated directly to Israel-Syria relations, this incident reflects Israel's complex regional diplomatic challenges, contributing to a cautious market outlook on normalization prospects.
Ukraine warns Israel over ship with stolen grain, straining relations
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%2%
Ukraine summoned the Israeli ambassador to protest a ship carrying stolen Ukrainian grain docking in Haifa, causing diplomatic tension. While unrelated directly to Israel-Syria normalization, this event contributed to regional diplomatic complexities affecting market sentiment.
U.S.-mediated Israel‑Syria talks resume in Paris
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%3%
AP reported that Israeli and Syrian delegations met in Paris to restart security talks, prompting a short rally in the market as traders priced in a possible path to formal relations.
Ukraine summons Israeli envoy over ship with stolen Ukrainian grain at Haifa port
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Ukraine summoned Israel's ambassador to protest the unloading of stolen Ukrainian grain at Haifa port, straining Israel's diplomatic relations and reflecting Israel's complex regional position. While not directly related to Israel-Syria normalization, this event contributed to regional diplomatic tensions and market caution.
Syria intensifies crackdown on Hezbollah, opening door for potential Israel cooperation
Syria’s leadership began actively curbing Hezbollah’s presence on its territory, which aligns with Israeli security interests and could facilitate future cooperation, though normalization remains distant.
Syrian Foreign Minister confirms stalled normalization efforts with Israel
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani acknowledged that efforts to normalize relations with Israel have stalled, reflecting persistent mistrust and military tensions, which kept market prices near lows.
Analysis highlights stalled Israel-Syria rapprochement despite shared interests
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
A Foreign Policy article noted that despite converging interests against Hezbollah, efforts to bridge gaps between Israel and Syria have stalled, reflecting ongoing mistrust and lack of cooperation. This reinforced market skepticism about normalization prospects, contributing to low prices.
Syria's new leadership supports disarming Hezbollah, aligning interests with Israel
December 31, 2026 rises to 18%4%
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa publicly supported disarming Hezbollah and interdicted weapons shipments, showing converging interests with Israel but without translating into normalization or cooperation.
Syrian foreign minister hints at normalization during press conference
Yes dips to 4%1%
During a press briefing, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al‑Shibani reiterated that Syria seeks full sovereignty and hinted that normalization with Israel could be part of future negotiations, tempering the earlier decline and stabilising the market near the low point.
Syrian President publicly supports disarming Hezbollah, aligning interests with Israel
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa declared support for Lebanon's efforts to disarm Hezbollah, an adversary shared with Israel. This shift in Syria's stance represents a convergence of interests but has not yet translated into formal cooperation or normalization with Israel.
Israel and Syria’s Shared Fight Against Hezbollah Highlights Stalled Normalization
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa declared support for disarming Hezbollah, aligning interests with Israel against a common enemy. However, efforts to bridge gaps and normalize relations have stalled due to mutual distrust and ongoing military tensions, dampening market optimism.
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa Hints at Israeli Normalization
Sharaa publicly hinted at normalization with Israel, indicating a potential shift in Syrian policy. However, this was not followed by concrete steps toward diplomatic relations.
Israeli and Syrian interests converge against Hezbollah but normalization efforts stall
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
Despite shared interests in countering Hezbollah, deep mutual distrust and ongoing Israeli military actions in Syria prevented cooperation from translating into normalization, reinforcing market pessimism.
Ukraine warns Israel of diplomatic crisis over stolen grain ship at Haifa port
Yes drops to 4%5%
Ukraine summoned the Israeli ambassador to protest Israel allowing ships carrying stolen Ukrainian grain to dock, straining Israel's regional relations and reflecting Israel's complex regional position. This incident underscored Israel's diplomatic challenges, indirectly affecting perceptions of its willingness to normalize relations with neighbors like Syria.
EU leaders visit Syria and pledge €620 million aid
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President António Costa met Syrian interim President Ahmad al‑Sharaa, signaling Syria’s growing international acceptance and indirectly supporting a regional diplomatic thaw that nudged the December‑31 price slightly higher.
Syria Issues Customs Decree Reinforcing Ban on Israeli Goods
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%1%
President al-Sharaa issued a new customs law maintaining the ban on importing Israeli goods and prohibiting Israeli citizens from entering, signaling a consolidation of domestic legitimacy over normalization.
Syrian foreign minister hints at possible Israel normalization
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
In a televised interview, Syria’s Foreign Minister Asaad al‑Shaibani suggested that Damascus was open to talks with Israel, sparking brief market optimism that a diplomatic breakthrough might be forthcoming.
Visiting EU leaders pledge to support Syria's recovery after years of civil war
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
EU leaders visited Syria and pledged financial support for reconstruction, signaling Syria's improving international relations post-civil war. This development suggested a more stable Syrian government potentially open to diplomatic normalization, slightly influencing market optimism.
Joint Israel‑Syria communication cell established under U.S. supervision
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
The joint communication cell was presented as a concrete step toward de‑escalation, yet its limited scope reinforced expectations that full diplomatic ties were still distant, pushing both outcome prices down further.
Second round of U.S.-mediated Israel-Lebanon talks aims to extend cease-fire
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%4%
The U.S. hosted a second round of talks between Israel and Lebanon to extend a cease-fire amid ongoing conflict with Hezbollah. The talks showed continued U.S. diplomatic engagement in the region but no direct impact on Israel-Syria normalization.
U.S. mediates second round of Israel-Lebanon talks on Hezbollah cease-fire
The U.S. hosted a second round of talks between Israel and Lebanon aimed at extending a cease-fire and launching negotiations for peace. While not directly involving Syria, these talks influenced regional dynamics and underscored the complexity of achieving broader normalization including with Syria, as Hezbollah opposed agreements.
Syrian foreign minister says Israel‑Syria talks have stalled
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%4%
A Syrian Foreign Ministry tweet on April 23 reported that talks had stalled, undercutting the optimism from the previous day and prompting a sharp drop in market confidence for both outcomes.
Syria’s interim president calls for ceasefire amid renewed clashes
June 30, 2026 dips to 5%4%
Following renewed fighting between Syrian forces and Kurdish fighters, President al‑Sharaa announced a ceasefire, underscoring internal security challenges and reducing the likelihood of a swift diplomatic opening with Israel, nudging the market lower.
Syrian foreign minister says Israel‑Syria talks have stalled
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%1%
The same stall announcement also pushed down the June 30 2026 outcome, which fell from 5 % to 4 % as traders reassessed the likelihood of an earlier normalization date.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%3%
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks focusing on security, intelligence sharing, and diplomatic engagement. The agreement to establish a joint communication cell indicated progress but fell short of official normalization, leading to modest market reactions.
U.S.-mediated Israel‑Syria talks resume in Paris
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
U.S. officials announced that Israeli and Syrian delegations met in Paris to discuss a security pact, raising expectations for a diplomatic breakthrough and temporarily stabilising prices before the news of a deadlock emerged.
U.S.-mediated Israel‑Syria talks resume in Paris
Yes drops to 5%9%
The Associated Press reported that Israeli and Syrian delegations met in Paris to discuss a security agreement and the re‑activation of the 1974 disengagement buffer. The diplomatic breakthrough lifted market optimism, causing a short‑term rise in the Yes price for both outcomes.
Syrian foreign minister hints at possible normalization with Israel
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
In a televised interview, Syria’s Foreign Minister Asaad al‑Shaibani suggested that talks on normalising relations with Israel were under consideration, briefly lifting market odds before the optimism faded amid no concrete steps.
Second round of U.S.-mediated Israel-Lebanon talks held amid Hezbollah opposition
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%5%
The U.S. hosted a second round of talks between Israel and Lebanon aimed at extending a cease-fire with Hezbollah, which opposed the talks. Continued Israeli strikes and Hezbollah's resistance underscored regional instability, indirectly affecting Israel-Syria normalization prospects by highlighting broader security challenges.
U.S.-brokered Israel-Lebanon talks begin amid ongoing regional conflict
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
The U.S. facilitated direct talks between Israel and Lebanon to address ceasefire and security issues, highlighting ongoing regional instability that complicates Israel-Syria normalization prospects. Market prices continued to decline.
Israel and Syria hold second round of U.S.-mediated talks in Paris with limited progress
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
In April 2026, Israel and Syria resumed talks in Paris focusing on security and intelligence coordination but without any official announcement of diplomatic normalization. The talks aimed to prevent misunderstandings but did not resolve core issues, keeping market prices low.
U.S. brokers first direct Israel-Lebanon talks in decades amid ceasefire
Following intense conflict involving Hezbollah, the U.S. facilitated the first direct diplomatic talks between Israel and Lebanon in decades, aiming to extend ceasefire and open negotiations. While not directly involving Syria, this regional diplomatic activity influenced perceptions of Middle East stability and normalization prospects.
Lebanon and Israel hold first direct diplomatic talks in decades in Washington
December 31, 2026 rises to 16%2%
Lebanon and Israel held direct talks brokered by the U.S., marking a historic step though Hezbollah opposed the talks. This development influenced regional dynamics but did not directly advance Israel-Syria normalization, contributing to market uncertainty.
Syrian interim president Al‑Sharaa meets Turkish foreign minister in Istanbul
December 31, 2026 drops to 9%5%
The meeting focused on border security and did not address diplomatic relations with Israel, reinforcing market sentiment that normalization was unlikely.
Israel-Lebanon talks highlight challenges for regional peace amid ongoing conflict
Yes rises to 14%4%
Analysis of Israel-Lebanon talks emphasized the political and military challenges Israel faces, including its occupation of southern Lebanon and targeting beyond Hezbollah. This situation reflects the broader regional instability that hinders progress on Israel-Syria normalization.
Clashes erupt between Syrian government forces and Kurdish fighters amid stalled merger talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%1%
Violent clashes in northern Syria between government forces and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces undermined stability and complicated diplomatic progress, reducing market confidence in near-term normalization between Israel and Syria.
Syria reports foiling Hezbollah sabotage plot, signaling security cooperation with Israel
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%4%
Syrian Interior Ministry announced thwarting a Hezbollah‑linked sabotage plot in Quneitra, underscoring a shared security concern with Israel. Analysts highlighted this as a possible confidence‑building measure, nudging the market slightly upward.
Syria thwarts Hezbollah-linked sabotage plot in Quneitra province
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
Syria announced it foiled a Hezbollah-linked sabotage plot near the Israeli border, highlighting ongoing security tensions that complicate normalization efforts and dampen market enthusiasm.
Syria says it foiled Hezbollah sabotage plot in Quneitra
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%4%
Syria’s Interior Ministry announced it had stopped a Hezbollah‑linked cell planning a rocket attack from a disguised civilian vehicle. The incident highlighted ongoing security tensions and reduced market optimism that Israel and Syria were moving toward diplomatic ties.
Syria's Interior Ministry announces thwarting of Hezbollah sabotage plot in Quneitra
December 31, 2026 drops to 4%7%
Syrian authorities reported thwarting a Hezbollah-orchestrated sabotage plot in Quneitra province, demonstrating ongoing security coordination and regional tensions. This military development may have contributed to market volatility.
Syria thwarts Hezbollah sabotage plots near Israeli border
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Syrian authorities announced the disruption of Hezbollah-linked sabotage plots in Quneitra province and Damascus, signaling Syria's new stance against Hezbollah and aligning interests with Israel. This development suggested a potential opening for improved relations but did not translate into formal diplomatic progress, contributing to market uncertainty.
Syria’s Interior Ministry reports thwarting Hezbollah sabotage plot in Quneitra
Yes dips to 14%2%
The Syrian interior ministry announced the disruption of a Hezbollah‑linked sabotage operation near the Israeli‑controlled Golan Heights. The security‑focused news reinforced the perception of ongoing hostility, pushing the Yes price lower for both outcomes.
Syria’s President al-Sharaa projects pragmatism amid ongoing talks with Israel
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa addressed European audiences emphasizing pragmatism and cooperation, signaling a potential softening stance. However, no formal diplomatic relations were announced, and market prices remained low.
US Envoy Tom Barrack says Israel-Syria non-aggression talks have evaporated
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%
US Special Envoy Tom Barrack admitted that talks toward a non-aggression agreement between Israel and Syria had evaporated due to regional hostilities, though he predicted they would eventually reach an agreement.
US envoy praises Syrian conciliatory approach, predicts normalization with Israel
December 31, 2026 rises to 18%2%
US Special Envoy Tom Barrack praised Syria's conciliatory stance toward Israel and predicted normalization would occur sooner with Syria than Lebanon, injecting some optimism into the market despite ongoing challenges.
US Envoy Tom Barrack Admits Israel-Syria Non-Aggression Talks Have Evaporated
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
US Special Envoy Tom Barrack acknowledged that talks toward a non-aggression agreement between Israel and Syria had 'evaporated' due to regional conflicts, leading to a temporary time-out in negotiations.
U.S. envoy says Israel‑Syria normalization likely soon, after Antalya forum
December 31, 2026 rises to 18%4%
U.S. Special Envoy Tom Barrack, speaking at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, said both sides were “close to a non‑aggression and normalization agreement”. His upbeat assessment briefly lifted optimism, pushing the “December 31, 2026” probability up from 14 % to 18 % on April 7 before the subsequent decline.
Syria's President Al-Sharaa attends Antalya Diplomacy Forum
Yes dips to 14%2%
Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa participated in a major diplomacy forum in Turkey, indicating continued efforts to engage with international actors and potentially Israel.
US Envoy Admits Israel-Syria Non-Aggression Talks Have Evaporated
June 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%
US Special Envoy Tom Barrack confirmed that talks toward a non-aggression agreement between Israel and Syria had evaporated, leading to a 'time-out' in active negotiations.
US envoy predicts Israel-Syria normalization soon amid praise for Syrian conciliatory approach
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
US Special Envoy for Syria Tom Barrack praised Syria's conciliatory approach and predicted normalization with Israel soon, providing a temporary boost to market optimism despite ongoing challenges.
US envoy Tom Barrack praises Syrian government's conciliatory approach toward Israel
December 31, 2026 rises to 17%1%
US Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrack publicly praised Syria's new regime for its conciliatory stance and predicted normalization with Israel would happen sooner than with Lebanon. This raised market hopes temporarily, causing a slight price increase.
Syrian President al-Sharaa States Israel Talks Hindered by Continued Military Presence
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
President al-Sharaa clarified that while talks with Israel have not completely collapsed, they are severely hindered by Israel's continued military presence on Syrian territory.
US Envoy Tom Barrack Criticizes Israeli Policy but Remains Optimistic on Normalization
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
US Special Envoy Tom Barrack criticized Israel's actions in southern Syria while predicting that a non-aggression and normalization agreement with Syria would still happen sooner than with Lebanon.
Syrian President Al-Sharaa signals readiness for long-term talks with Israel over Golan Heights
June 30, 2026 rises to 9%2%
At the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa stated Syria is seeking a security agreement ensuring Israeli withdrawal to 1974 disengagement lines, which could lead to long-term negotiations on the Golan Heights. This marked a significant policy shift, briefly boosting market optimism for normalization by June 30, 2026.
US envoy Tom Barrack praises Syrian regime's conciliatory approach, predicts normalization soon
June 30, 2026 rises to 3%1%
US Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrack publicly praised Syria's new government for its conciliatory stance toward Israel and predicted that normalization would occur sooner than with Lebanon. This raised market hopes temporarily for a diplomatic breakthrough.
US envoy praises Syrian regime's conciliatory approach, predicts normalization with Israel
June 30, 2026 rises to 7%1%
US Special Envoy Tom Barrack praised Syria's new government for its conciliatory stance toward Israel and predicted that normalization and a non-aggression agreement would be reached sooner than with Lebanon. This statement briefly boosted market sentiment but did not lead to immediate progress.
U.S. Special Envoy Tom Barrack praises Syrian regime's conciliatory approach, predicts normalization
June 30, 2026 rises to 10%3%
At the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, U.S. envoy Tom Barrack praised Syria's conciliatory stance and predicted normalization with Israel sooner than with Lebanon. This optimistic forecast briefly lifted market prices, reflecting renewed hope for a deal by June 30, 2026.
US envoy predicts eventual normalization between Israel and Syria
US Special Envoy Tom Barrack expressed optimism that Israel and Syria would soon reach a non-aggression and normalization agreement, despite current setbacks. This statement briefly boosted market expectations for normalization by suggesting diplomatic progress was still possible.
Syrian President al-Sharaa demands Israeli withdrawal to 1974 borders in phased deal
At the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, President al-Sharaa outlined a security-focused roadmap requiring Israel to withdraw to 1974 armistice boundaries, emphasizing territorial integrity and complicating prospects for full normalization. This reinforced market skepticism about imminent diplomatic relations.
US envoy Tom Barrack predicts eventual normalization between Syria and Israel
June 30, 2026 rises to 9%2%
At the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, US Special Envoy Tom Barrack praised Syria's conciliatory approach and predicted normalization with Israel would occur sooner than with Lebanon. His remarks briefly increased market optimism but acknowledged ongoing challenges, reflecting cautious market reactions.
US envoy predicts eventual Israel-Syria normalization despite stalled talks
US Special Envoy Tom Barrack expressed optimism that Israel and Syria will eventually reach a non-aggression and normalization agreement, despite current stalled negotiations and regional conflicts.
US envoy Tom Barrack highlights selective mediation in Syria-Israel talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%1%
US Special Envoy Tom Barrack explained that US mediation in Syria-Israel negotiations is selective and conditional, with significant obstacles including Israeli military presence in Syria. His remarks underscored the complexity and slow progress of talks, contributing to market uncertainty.
US envoy praises Syrian regime's conciliatory approach, criticizes Israeli policy
US Special Envoy Tom Barrack praised Syria's conciliatory stance toward Israel and predicted normalization would occur sooner with Syria than Lebanon, while criticizing Israeli actions in Syria, which influenced market perceptions of potential normalization.
U.S. envoy Tom Barrack praises Syrian regime's conciliatory approach, predicts normalization
December 31, 2026 rises to 18%1%
U.S. Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrack publicly praised Syria's new leadership and predicted that Israel and Syria would soon agree to normalize relations, signaling U.S. optimism despite ongoing challenges.
US Special Envoy Tom Barrack predicts normalization agreement between Israel and Syria soon
June 30, 2026 rises to 8%3%
At the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, US envoy Tom Barrack praised Syria's conciliatory approach and predicted normalization with Israel would occur sooner than with Lebanon, briefly boosting market optimism.
Israel approves $334 million plan to expand civilian settlements in occupied Syrian Golan Heights
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
Israel's approval of settlement expansion in the occupied Golan Heights signaled a hardening stance on territorial issues, undermining prospects for normalization and causing further market decline.
US envoy predicts Israel-Syria normalization soon despite current setbacks
June 30, 2026 rises to 11%3%
US Special Envoy Tom Barrack praised Syria's conciliatory approach and predicted normalization with Israel would occur sooner than with Lebanon, providing some market support despite ongoing challenges and stalled talks.
US Envoy Tom Barrack Admits Israel-Syria Talks are on a 'Time-Out' Due to Regional War
June 30, 2026 dips to 5%2%
US Special Envoy Tom Barrack stated that talks toward a non-aggression agreement between Israel and Syria had evaporated and were on a 'time-out' due to broader regional conflicts, dampening hopes for a near-term deal.
US envoy Barrack praises Syrian conciliatory approach, predicts normalization soon
December 31, 2026 rises to 16%2%
US Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrack publicly praised Syria's conciliatory stance and predicted normalization with Israel would occur sooner than with Lebanon. This statement briefly boosted market optimism, reflected in a small price uptick.
US Envoy Tom Barrack Insists Normalization is Possible but Admits Current 'Time-Out' in Talks
June 30, 2026 jumps to 7%5%
At the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, US Special Envoy Tom Barrack praised Syria's conciliatory approach but admitted that regional hostilities had forced a 'time-out' in active non-aggression and normalization talks.
Syria's President Says Talks Hindered by Continued Israeli Military Presence
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
President Ahmad al-Sharaa stated that security talks with Israel had not completely collapsed but were progressing with great difficulty due to Israel's refusal to withdraw from southern Syrian territory.
US Envoy Predicts Normalization Agreement With Syria Is Still Possible
December 31, 2026 rises to 18%4%
US Special Envoy Tom Barrack praised the new Syrian regime's conciliatory approach and predicted that Israel and Syria would eventually agree to a non-aggression and normalization agreement, temporarily boosting market sentiment.
U.S. envoy predicts near‑term Israel‑Syria normalization
December 31, 2026 rises to 15%2%
During the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, Barrack claimed a normalization agreement with Syria was “sooner than Lebanon,” raising hope among traders. The market reacted with a temporary rise in the December‑2026 “Yes” price to 15 % (from 13 % on 2026‑04‑14).
U.S. envoy predicts normalization agreement between Israel and Syria
June 30, 2026 rises to 10%3%
U.S. Special Envoy Tom Barrack expressed optimism that Israel and Syria would soon reach a non-aggression and normalization agreement, citing Syria's conciliatory approach under President al-Sharaa despite ongoing challenges.
U.S. envoy says normalization with Syria is "likely" and foresees a non‑aggression pact
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%3%
U.S. Special Envoy Tom Barrack, speaking at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, predicted that a non‑aggression and normalization agreement with Syria would be reached soon. The forward‑looking comment nudged the market upward for the December‑2026 outcome, contributing to the climb from 11 % to 14 % between 2026‑05‑20 and 2026‑05‑29.
US envoy Tom Barrack: Syria normalization 'sooner than Lebanon' at Antalya forum
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%7%
US Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrack predicted normalization with Syria would occur sooner than with Lebanon, though he acknowledged talks were paused due to regional instability.
US Envoy Tom Barrack Predicts Normalization with Syria but Admits Current 'Time-Out'
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%4%
US Special Envoy Tom Barrack praised Syria's conciliatory approach but admitted that regional conflict has forced a 'time-out' in active non-aggression and normalization talks.
Israel approves plan to expand civilian settlements in occupied Syrian Golan Heights
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
Israel's decision to transfer thousands of civilians into the occupied Golan Heights and continue occupation policies heightened tensions with Syria, signaling no progress toward normalization and further dampening market optimism.
US Special Envoy Tom Barrack Admits Israel-Syria Normalization Talks Have Evaporated Into a 'Time-Out'
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
US Special Envoy Tom Barrack acknowledged at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum that talks toward a non-aggression and normalization agreement between Israel and Syria had temporarily evaporated due to regional conflicts.
Syrian President al-Sharaa reiterates openness to long-term talks on Golan Heights at Antalya forum
Al-Sharaa emphasized Syria's desire to reactivate or conclude a new security agreement guaranteeing mutual security and Israeli withdrawal to 1974 lines, potentially leading to broader negotiations on the Golan Heights dispute.
Syrian President al-Sharaa Says Negotiations With Israel Face Significant Obstacles Over Territory
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa stated that while negotiations with Israel remain active, they face major hurdles due to Israel's insistence on maintaining a military presence on Syrian territory.
US envoy predicts Syria-Israel normalization despite current setbacks
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%2%
US Special Envoy Tom Barrack praised Syria's conciliatory approach and predicted normalization with Israel would occur sooner than with Lebanon, providing some optimism but no immediate breakthrough, reflected in minor market fluctuations.
Lebanon and Israel agree to 10-day cease-fire amid conflict with Hezbollah
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
A cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon began on April 16, brokered by the U.S., creating a moment of regional diplomatic activity. While this primarily involved Lebanon and Hezbollah, it influenced regional dynamics affecting Israel-Syria relations and normalization prospects.
Israel announces plans to begin ceasefire and disarmament talks with Lebanon
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%4%
On April 16, 2026, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced plans to start ceasefire and Hezbollah disarmament talks with Lebanon, signaling regional diplomatic momentum that could indirectly affect Israel-Syria relations by reducing northern border tensions.
Israeli airstrikes target Syrian military sites in response to Druze massacres
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%4%
Israel conducted airstrikes on Syrian military headquarters and other sites following reports of massacres against the Druze population in southern Syria. This military escalation underscored ongoing hostilities and undermined prospects for normalization, leading to a drop in market prices.
Israel approves $334 million development plan for Golan Heights, signaling continued control
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%5%
Israel's government approved a major development plan to expand housing and infrastructure in the Golan Heights, reinforcing its hold on the territory despite international non-recognition. This move underscored Israel's intention to maintain control over the region, complicating prospects for Syrian demands and normalization.
Syrian President al-Sharaa says Israel refused normalization at last minute
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Al-Sharaa claimed that Syria reached good points in talks but Israel changed its mind at the last minute, indicating stalled negotiations and no formal diplomatic relations established.
Israel and Lebanon hold second round of U.S.-mediated talks to extend ceasefire
Yes dips to 10%1%
The U.S. hosted a second round of ambassador-level talks between Israel and Lebanon to extend a ceasefire and discuss broader peace negotiations. Hezbollah opposed the talks, underscoring ongoing regional tensions that complicate broader normalization efforts including with Syria.
U.S. brokers first direct diplomatic talks between Israel and Lebanon
December 31, 2026 drops to 19%9%
The United States facilitated the first direct diplomatic talks in decades between Israel and Lebanon, a neighboring country involved in regional conflicts. While this was a significant diplomatic step, it did not involve Syria and did not result in normalization between Israel and Syria, contributing to market skepticism.
Israel and Lebanon begin rare peace negotiations in Washington
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%1%
While not directly involving Syria, the initiation of Israel-Lebanon talks under US auspices indicated a regional shift toward peace efforts, indirectly affecting Israel-Syria normalization prospects by altering regional dynamics.
Israel and Lebanon hold rare direct peace talks in Washington
The Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors met in Washington under U.S. auspices to outline a framework for peace, shifting diplomatic focus toward Lebanon and highlighting the complex regional dynamics.
Israel and Lebanon hold second round of U.S.-mediated talks on ceasefire extension
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
The U.S. hosted a second round of talks between Israel and Lebanon to extend the ceasefire, with ongoing Israeli strikes and Hezbollah attacks continuing. This sustained regional instability contributed to market skepticism about Israel-Syria normalization in the near term.
Israel and Lebanon Hold Historic Summit in Washington to Discuss Peace Deal
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%2%
While Israel and Lebanon launched direct, high-level talks in Washington to establish a framework for peace, the diplomatic track with Syria remained stalled, shifting market focus toward Lebanon.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announces upcoming ceasefire and Hezbollah disarmament talks with Lebanon
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
While focused on Lebanon, this announcement signaled Israel's broader regional diplomatic efforts, indirectly affecting perceptions of Israel-Syria relations. It highlighted ongoing conflict dynamics and the complexity of normalization prospects.
Israel clears final hurdle for controversial West Bank settlement project
June 30, 2026 drops to 2%6%
The Israeli government approved the tender for the E1 settlement project near Jerusalem, a move seen as contrary to peace‑building and likely to sour any normalization talks with Syria, causing the June‑30 outcome price to plunge.
U.S. proposes joint Israel-Syria economic cooperation zone
December 31, 2026 drops to 4%8%
The Trump administration proposed an economic cooperation plan including a joint economic zone and infrastructure projects, signaling broader diplomatic engagement beyond security.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks on a security agreement, agreeing to set up a joint communication cell. The breakthrough raised hopes of formal diplomatic ties, pushing the market up modestly.
Syria reopens airspace amid ongoing Israeli military activities in southern Syria
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
On April 8, 2026, Syria reopened its airspace which had been closed due to regional hostilities, while Israel continued military operations in southern Syria citing national security. This maintained tensions and limited progress toward normalization.
Israel approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31, 2026 drops to 10%5%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a historic gas deal with Egypt, improving Israel’s regional economic ties and shifting diplomatic focus toward energy cooperation rather than a peace pact with Syria, contributing to further price declines.
Syria reopens airspace amid regional hostilities and Israeli military activity
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%5%
Syria reopened its airspace after closure due to regional conflicts, while Israeli military actions continued in southern Syria, including incursions and arrests, maintaining tensions and undermining normalization prospects.
Israel and Lebanon begin first direct diplomatic talks in decades in Washington
Yes dips to 14%3%
Lebanon and Israel held their first direct talks in decades, mediated by the U.S., aiming to address ceasefire and peace issues amid ongoing conflict with Hezbollah. This development highlighted regional diplomatic efforts but did not directly advance Israel-Syria normalization, reflecting the complex regional environment.
U.S. brokers ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, indirectly affecting regional dynamics
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%4%
The U.S. brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, which while not directly involving Syria, influenced regional security calculations and Israel's military focus, indirectly impacting Israel-Syria relations and market sentiment on normalization prospects.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 rises to 17%1%
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks aimed at a security agreement to reduce tensions, agreeing to establish a joint communication cell for coordination. However, Syria prioritized Israeli withdrawal to pre-December 2024 lines, while Israel emphasized security and protection of its citizens and the Druze minority. This indicated progress in dialogue but no formal diplomatic normalization.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar confirms high-level talks with Turkey on Syria to prevent conflict flare-ups
June 30, 2026 dips to 5%4%
Israeli FM Gideon Saar revealed meetings with Turkish officials aimed at managing tensions in Syria, emphasizing limited security cooperation rather than political normalization. This indicated ongoing regional complexities and limited progress toward Israel-Syria normalization, contributing to market price declines.
Israel launches strikes on Lebanon, Syria closes border crossing
December 31, 2026 dips to 16%2%
Israeli strikes on Lebanon and the closure of the Syria-Lebanon border crossing heightened regional tensions, complicating the security environment and indirectly affecting Israel-Syria relations.
Israel Defense Minister warns of further strikes in Syria amid Druze clashes
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%4%
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned of stronger military action in Syria to protect Druze communities, indicating ongoing tensions and military risks that undermined prospects for normalization.
Israel clears final hurdle for controversial West Bank settlement project near Jerusalem
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
The Israeli government approved a tender for the E1 settlement project, reviving a long‑frozen plan and raising concerns that settlement expansion would hinder any diplomatic breakthrough with Syria, causing the market to fall.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks focused on a security agreement to defuse tensions, agreeing to establish a joint communication cell for coordination under U.S. supervision. This marked a significant step toward potential normalization but fell short of official diplomatic relations.
U.S‑mediated Israel‑Syria security talks resume in Paris
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%1%
The announcement that Syrian and Israeli delegations would meet in Paris under U.S. mediation revived hopes of a security pact, but analysts viewed the talks as focused on buffer‑zone issues rather than full diplomatic recognition, prompting a modest price drop.
Syrian and Israeli officials resume U.S.-mediated talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%5%
Officials from Syria and Israel met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks aiming to reach a security agreement to defuse tensions. They agreed to establish a joint communication cell for coordination, but no formal normalization was announced, reflecting cautious progress.
Syria issues customs decree reinforcing ban on Israeli goods amid stalled talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 7%2%
In April 2026, Syria reinforced its ban on Israeli goods and entry of Israeli citizens, signaling a hardening stance and confirming the stall in normalization talks, further diminishing market expectations for a deal by mid-2026.
Syrian President al-Sharaa states normalization attempt with Israel failed
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%
During a UK visit, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa said his government attempted to normalize relations with Israel but was unsuccessful, confirming stalled progress and dampening market expectations for normalization by mid-2026.
Ongoing Israeli airstrikes and incursions in southern Syria continue
December 31, 2026 drops to 18%7%
Despite talks, Israel continued airstrikes on Syrian military facilities and incursions outside buffer zones, maintaining tensions and undermining prospects for normalization. This contributed to market declines in the probability of normalization by the end of 2026.
Syrian President Says Normalization Efforts Failed Due to Last-Minute Israeli Reversal
December 31, 2026 drops to 15%10%
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa announced during a UK visit that direct and indirect normalization talks with Israel had failed because Israel changed its mind at the last minute, causing a sharp drop in market expectations.
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa states normalization attempts with Israel failed
December 31, 2026 drops to 15%5%
During a UK visit, al-Sharaa revealed that efforts to normalize relations with Israel were unsuccessful, dampening market optimism about full diplomatic ties.
Syria's President Al-Sharaa says Israel changed its mind at last minute
Yes dips to 16%4%
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa stated that despite reaching good points, Israel withdrew from diplomatic talks at the last minute, signaling a setback for normalization efforts.
Syrian President al-Sharaa Reveals Israel Backed Out of Normalization Deal at Last Minute
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa announced during a visit to London that direct and indirect negotiations with Israel had reached good points, but Israel changed its mind at the last minute, stalling normalization efforts.
Syrian President Al-Sharaa: Israel normalization attempts 'without success' at UK visit
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa stated during a UK visit that his government's efforts to normalize with Israel failed due to Israel changing its position at the last minute.
Syrian President al-Sharaa reports failed normalization attempt with Israel
December 31, 2026 dips to 15%4%
During a UK visit, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa stated that Syria attempted to normalize relations with Israel through direct and indirect negotiations but Israel changed its mind at the last minute, dampening prospects for diplomatic ties.
Syria’s president says Israel backed out of normalization talks at the last minute
June 30, 2026 drops to 3%5%
During a visit to London, Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa told Israeli media that Syria’s attempt to normalize relations with Israel failed because Israel withdrew “at the last minute”. The announcement confirmed the collapse of talks and caused the market’s “Yes” probability to fall, especially for the June‑30, 2026 outcome which dropped from 8 % to 3 % in the following weeks.
Explosions in Damascus from Israeli interception of Iranian missiles
December 31, 2026 dips to 6%2%
Israeli air defenses intercepted Iranian missiles over Damascus, reflecting ongoing regional conflict and instability that complicated Syria-Israel relations and reduced chances of normalization.
Al-Sharaa says normalization with Israel failed after last-minute Israeli change
June 30, 2026 drops to 4%10%
During a UK visit, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa stated that his government's attempt to normalize relations with Israel failed due to Israel changing its mind at the last minute.
Syrian President Al-Sharaa says Israel refused normalization at last minute
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%4%
During a UK visit, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa stated that Syria attempted to normalize relations with Israel but Israel changed its mind at the last minute, signaling a setback in normalization talks and causing market confidence to decline.
Syrian President al-Sharaa states Syria's attempt to normalize relations with Israel failed
December 31, 2026 drops to 17%5%
During a visit to the UK, President Ahmed al-Sharaa said Syria attempted normalization with Israel but was refused at the last minute. This public statement dampened market expectations for imminent normalization, causing a price decline for both June 30 and December 31, 2026 outcomes.
Israel intensifies military operations against Iran, impacting regional dynamics
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%3%
Israel's ongoing military campaign against Iran and its proxies, including in Syria, heightened regional tensions and distrust, further complicating normalization efforts with Syria and depressing market confidence.
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa says normalization talks with Israel collapsed at final stage
June 30, 2026 plunges to 6%16%
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa confirmed that Israel backed out of normalization efforts at the last minute, a major setback for diplomatic momentum and leading to a sharp price decline.
Syrian President al-Sharaa Reveals Failed Normalization Attempt with Israel
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%4%
During a visit to the UK, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa stated that his government attempted to normalize relations with Israel 'without success' because Israel backed out at the last minute.
Syrian President Al-Sharaa says Israel normalization attempt failed
Yes dips to 15%2%
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa stated that his government's efforts to normalize relations with Israel were unsuccessful, with Israel changing its mind at the last minute despite reaching good points.
Syrian President al-Sharaa confirms Israel backed out of normalization talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%3%
In a UK visit, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa stated that Israel changed its mind at the last minute and backed out of normalization talks, confirming the collapse of the process.
Syrian President al-Sharaa says Israel backed out of normalization talks at last minute
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%2%
During a UK visit, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa stated that Syria attempted to normalize relations with Israel and reached good points, but Israel changed its mind at the last minute. This announcement dampened market optimism for normalization by mid-2026.
Syrian President al-Sharaa Announces Normalization Attempt Failed
During a visit to London, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa revealed that direct and indirect negotiations to normalize relations with Israel failed because Israel backed out at the last minute.
Israel and Syria Resume U.S.-Brokered Talks in Paris on Security Agreement
The resumption of U.S.-mediated talks in Paris focused on a security agreement, including a joint communication cell for intelligence sharing and military de-escalation. This represented a significant diplomatic step but did not result in normalized relations.
No official Israel-Syria normalization announcement as talks remain inconclusive
By late March 2026, no official announcement of diplomatic relations establishment occurred despite ongoing talks and U.S. mediation, leading to market prices dropping to historic lows for both June and December 2026 outcomes.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%1%
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks focusing on security and diplomatic coordination, including establishing a joint communication cell. This was a significant diplomatic engagement but did not result in official normalization of relations, leading to some market optimism but no resolution.
U.S.-mediated Israel‑Syria talks resume in Paris, both sides set modest goals
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%
AP reported that Israeli and Syrian delegations met in Paris to discuss a security agreement, but the limited agenda and lack of concrete timelines kept market expectations low, maintaining the downward trend.
Israel conducts airstrikes on Syrian military targets after Druze attacks
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%4%
In response to attacks on Druze civilians in southern Syria, Israel struck Syrian government infrastructure, escalating tensions and undermining prospects for normalization. This military action contributed to market uncertainty and price declines for near-term normalization outcomes.
Israel strikes Syrian military sites after attacks on Druze civilians
Israel conducted military strikes in southern Syria in response to attacks on the Druze population, highlighting ongoing security tensions that complicate normalization prospects and likely contributed to market pessimism.
Israel strikes Syrian military sites after attacks on Druze civilians
June 30, 2026 drops to 1%8%
In response to attacks on Druze civilians in southern Syria, Israel conducted airstrikes on Syrian government infrastructure, escalating tensions and undermining diplomatic progress, contributing to market decline in normalization prospects.
Israel strikes Syrian military targets after attacks on Druze civilians
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
Following attacks on Druze civilians in Syria, Israel conducted military strikes on Syrian government targets, underscoring ongoing tensions and security challenges that hinder normalization prospects.
Israel Strikes Syrian Army Camps Following Clashes in Sweida
December 31, 2026 dips to 16%1%
The Israeli military launched airstrikes on Syrian government military camps in Sweida, citing a commitment to protect the local Druze population. This military escalation complicated ongoing diplomatic de-confliction efforts.
Analysis highlights cautious progress but no full normalization between Israel and Syria
December 31, 2026 drops to 17%5%
Experts noted that the joint fusion mechanism is a tactical crisis-management tool rather than a path to full normalization, with Syria's new government seeking sanctions relief and legitimacy while Israel remains cautious, explaining the market's low confidence in full normalization by mid-2026.
Israeli airstrike hits Syrian forces amid Druze clashes in Sweida
December 31, 2026 drops to 15%5%
Israeli forces conducted an airstrike on Syrian government troops following clashes with Druze factions, highlighting ongoing instability and external interventions that complicate Syria-Israel relations and reduce prospects for normalization.
U.S. encourages Syria to consider sending forces into eastern Lebanon to help disarm Hezbollah
December 31, 2026 dips to 15%3%
Reuters reported that the U.S. pushed Syria to send forces into eastern Lebanon to help disarm Hezbollah, reflecting shifting regional dynamics and increased Israeli military activity in southern Syria.
U.S. Urges Syria to Act Against Hezbollah, Damascus Hesitant
December 31, 2026 dips to 16%2%
The U.S. encouraged Syria to send forces into eastern Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah, but Syria's reluctance highlighted ongoing regional complexities and cautious Syrian policy, dampening market optimism for near-term normalization with Israel.
Israeli Foreign Minister states war goal to remove Iran threats, signaling ongoing regional conflict
December 31, 2026 drops to 15%8%
In March 2026, Israeli officials emphasized ongoing military objectives against Iran and its proxies, including in Syria, indicating continued instability and undermining prospects for normalization with Syria. This contributed to low market confidence in normalization by mid-2026.
Israel engages in secret regional diplomatic contacts post-war
December 31, 2026 jumps to 26%9%
Israel pursued broader regional diplomatic initiatives including discussions with countries lacking formal ties, indicating a strategic framework that might eventually include Syria but with no immediate normalization, contributing to market uncertainty and price volatility.
EU leaders visit Syria, pledge €620 million aid
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%2%
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President António Costa met interim President Ahmad al‑Sharaa in Damascus, announcing a major aid package. The visit highlighted Syria’s growing openness to the West, shifting attention away from Israel‑Syria normalization and pulling the market down.
Israel and Syria agree to establish joint communication cell in Paris talks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 24%11%
In a significant diplomatic development, Israel and Syria agreed to create a joint communication cell for intelligence sharing and military de-escalation, signaling progress but falling short of full normalization, causing a modest market uptick.
Syrian Foreign Minister reports stalled efforts to normalize with Israel
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%10%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani stated that efforts to bridge gaps with Israel have stalled, reflecting deep mistrust and ongoing military tensions, which contributed to the market's sharp decline in normalization probability.
Escalation between Hezbollah and Israel amid U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran
December 31, 2026 rises to 24%3%
Hezbollah fired at Israel supporting Tehran, prompting Israeli strikes in Lebanon, increasing regional tensions. The U.S. encouraged Syria to disarm Hezbollah, but Damascus hesitated, reflecting Syria's cautious stance and complicating normalization prospects.
US, Israel, Syria issue joint statement on productive talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 dips to 16%4%
A trilateral statement reaffirmed commitment to dialogue and cooperation but did not announce formal diplomatic relations, reflecting ongoing negotiations without resolution and contributing to market pessimism.
Israel and Syria’s shared fight against Hezbollah highlights tentative cooperation
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa publicly supported disarming Hezbollah, a common adversary of Israel and Syria, indicating some convergence of interests. However, efforts to bridge gaps stalled, maintaining skepticism about full normalization.
High-level security negotiations between Israel and Syria resume in Paris
Early in the analysis window, Israel and Syria resumed high-level security talks coordinated by the US, signaling initial diplomatic engagement. However, these talks did not lead to normalization, as later events showed, and market prices declined over time.
Israeli forces seize Hamas ally in southern Lebanon amid ongoing tensions
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%2%
Israeli military operations in Lebanon targeting Hamas allies and Hezbollah continued, reflecting ongoing regional instability and security concerns that reduce likelihood of Israel-Syria normalization by mid-2026.
Syrian president publicly supports Lebanon’s Hezbollah disarmament, signals shift away from Israel
December 31, 2026 drops to 16%5%
Al Arabiya covered President al‑Sharaa’s declaration backing Lebanon’s effort to disarm Hezbollah, a move seen as aligning Syria with Israel’s security goals but not translating into diplomatic progress, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa declares support for Lebanon's Hezbollah disarmament
June 30, 2026 plunges to 6%44%
Sharaa publicly supported Lebanon's effort to disarm Hezbollah, a shared interest with Israel. This positive development was noted but did not lead to normalization.
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa declares support for disarming Hezbollah alongside Lebanon and Israel
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%6%
Syria's new leadership publicly supported Lebanon's efforts to disarm Hezbollah, an adversary shared with Israel, signaling a potential convergence of interests. However, this did not translate into direct cooperation or normalization, reflecting ongoing mistrust and stalled progress in relations.
Renewed optimism as US-backed talks continue with focus on economic cooperation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 26%6%
US mediation helped sustain talks focusing on economic ties and regional stability, briefly boosting market confidence despite unresolved core issues.
Israeli strikes on Iran in Syria trigger Hezbollah rocket attacks, escalating regional tensions
December 31, 2026 rises to 20%3%
In early March 2026, Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in Syria led to sustained Hezbollah rocket attacks and a major Israeli ground operation in Lebanon. This escalation increased regional instability, reducing the likelihood of imminent normalization between Israel and Syria.
Syrian government announces ceasefire with Kurdish forces in Aleppo
December 31, 2026 rises to 19%3%
A brief ceasefire was declared, offering a fleeting hope that could explain a short‑term price uptick, but the lack of a lasting agreement quickly reversed the market move.
Market briefly rebounds on reports of ongoing US-mediated talks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 25%14%
Market prices for normalization temporarily increased due to reports of continued US-brokered discussions and hopes for progress, though no concrete breakthroughs were announced.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris, agree to joint communication cell
December 31, 2026 jumps to 23%9%
Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris and issued a joint statement establishing a communication cell to coordinate intelligence, de‑escalation and commercial opportunities, signalling a concrete step toward normalisation and pushing the market higher.
Continued diplomatic dialogue with no breakthrough on normalization
December 31, 2026 jumps to 22%6%
Israel and Syria continued talks focusing on security and economic cooperation, but Syria's refusal to establish full diplomatic relations without Israeli withdrawal kept market confidence low.
Israel continues military operations in Syria amid distrust of new Syrian leadership
December 31, 2026 jumps to 24%10%
Israel maintained military strikes and control in southern Syria, reflecting ongoing distrust of Syria’s interim government and complicating normalization prospects. This sustained tension contributed to market declines in early 2026.
House panel discusses improved Israel-Syria security ties amid ongoing violence
A US House panel acknowledged improved security coordination between Israel and Syria under US mediation but expressed concerns over violence and instability in Syria, highlighting challenges to normalization.
No breakthrough in Israel-Syria relations as core issues remain unresolved
December 31, 2026 dips to 16%4%
Despite ongoing US-mediated talks and the joint communication mechanism, Syria demands Israeli troop withdrawal from territories seized after December 2024, and full diplomatic relations remain off the table, leading to market price declines.
State Department reaffirms U.S. supervision of Israel‑Syria communication cell
June 30, 2026 dips to 7%2%
The State Department reiterated that the communication cell would remain “under U.S. supervision” and noted that no timeline for troop withdrawal had been agreed, keeping market sentiment bearish toward full normalization and sustaining the low Yes probabilities.
Lebanon and Israel hold first direct diplomatic talks in decades in Washington
December 31, 2026 jumps to 23%7%
Lebanon and Israel held direct talks brokered by the U.S. following conflict with Hezbollah, signaling a regional shift toward dialogue but not normalization with Syria. This event reflected broader regional diplomatic efforts but did not directly advance Israel-Syria normalization, contributing to market uncertainty.
Syrian defense ministry announces ceasefire in Aleppo amid stalled Israel talks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 20%6%
Syria’s defense ministry declared a ceasefire in Aleppo, a modest confidence‑building step, but without any parallel progress on Israel‑Syria normalisation, the market saw a modest rebound in price for the December‑2026 outcome.
U.S. and Israel begin war against Iran, Syria sees new regional dynamics
Israel launched airstrikes on Iran-backed militias in Syria following U.S.-Israeli offensive against Iran, prompting Syria to reassess its regional position.
US authorizes departure of non-emergency personnel from Israel amid security concerns
June 30, 2026 dips to 8%2%
The US State Department authorized the departure of non-emergency personnel from Israel due to safety risks, reflecting ongoing regional instability and dampening prospects for rapid normalization with Syria.
U.S.-mediated Israel-Syria talks in Paris advance security cooperation
June 30, 2026 dips to 12%4%
U.S. mediation led to substantive direct engagement between Israel and Syria in Paris, focusing on a security pact and de-escalation mechanisms. This progress increased market optimism for a security agreement and potential normalization by June 30, 2026.
U.S. mediates Israel-Syria talks establishing joint communication channel
Following U.S.-mediated talks in Paris, Israel and Syria agreed to a joint fusion mechanism for intelligence sharing and military de-escalation, signaling progress in security cooperation but falling short of full diplomatic normalization, influencing market prices downward.
Former U.S. ambassador advocates steady regional integration including Syria
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%1%
In late February 2026, calls for steady, low-profile efforts toward regional integration including Syria and Israel suggested ongoing diplomatic momentum, supporting market confidence in eventual normalization.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris to ease tensions
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%5%
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks focusing on respect for Syria's sovereignty and Israel's security, agreeing to establish a joint communication cell for coordination. This raised hopes for normalization but did not include official diplomatic relations, leading to some market optimism but no resolution.
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani more outspoken about Israel
Yes rises to 23%2%
Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani signaled Syria's openness to security negotiations with Israel, indicating a shift in diplomatic posture following U.S. mediation efforts in Paris.
Syrian FM more outspoken about Israel than in past year
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani increased public statements on Israel, indicating Syria's shift toward pragmatism and reduced emphasis on Golan Heights disputes.
Syrian Foreign Minister signals pragmatic approach to Israel talks, downplays Golan Heights dispute
December 31, 2026 drops to 13%6%
Syrian FM Asaad al-Shaibani indicated that negotiations focus on security issues excluding the Golan Heights, suggesting a willingness to pursue incremental agreements. This pragmatic stance was noted but also reflected Syria's cautious approach, limiting market enthusiasm for near-term normalization.
Syrian Foreign Minister Signals Possible Future Security Deal with Israel
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%1%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani indicated that negotiations on a security deal with Israel focused on recently occupied areas, excluding the Golan Heights. This suggested potential for incremental progress in relations, supporting market confidence in eventual normalization by the end of 2026.
Syria’s interim president announces ceasefire with Kurdish forces in Aleppo
Yes drops to 13%8%
The ceasefire announcement was intended to stabilize northern Syria but did not involve Israel, leaving the broader Israel‑Syria normalization question unchanged and contributing to continued price weakness.
Syrian Foreign Minister signals focus on security deal excluding Golan Heights
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%4%
Syrian FM Asaad al-Shaibani stated that negotiations with Israel focus on areas recently occupied by Israel and exclude the broader Golan Heights issue, indicating a pragmatic approach toward normalization. This statement influenced market prices by reinforcing the feasibility of a deal without territorial concessions.
Syrian Foreign Minister confirms talks with Israel on security agreement excluding Golan Heights
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%2%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani stated ongoing negotiations with Israel focus on a security agreement concerning recently occupied territories but explicitly exclude the broader Golan Heights issue. This limited scope tempered market expectations for full normalization by mid-2026.
Syrian Government and Kurdish Forces Sign Ceasefire Agreement
December 31, 2026 rises to 16%3%
The ceasefire between Syrian President al-Sharaa and Kurdish leader Mazloum Abdi marked a significant step toward internal Syrian stability, a prerequisite for advancing normalization with Israel. This development briefly increased market confidence in normalization prospects by late 2026.
Syria clarifies talks exclude Golan Heights issue, limiting peace scope
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%8%
Syrian officials stated negotiations focus on Israeli withdrawal from territory occupied after Assad's fall, excluding the Golan Heights, a core issue for Israel, indicating a major obstacle to full normalization.
Syria admits security deal with Israel won't secure Golan Heights liberation
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%8%
Syrian Foreign Minister Al-Shaibani acknowledged talks with Israel focus on ending military interference, signaling a pragmatic shift toward normalization despite unresolved Golan Heights dispute.
U.S.-mediated talks between Israel and Syria advance security coordination
June 30, 2026 rises to 14%4%
Following the collapse of Assad's regime, Israel and Syria engaged in U.S.-brokered talks focusing on intelligence sharing, security coordination, and military de-escalation along the Golan Heights, raising hopes for improved relations.
Syrian Foreign Minister Says Talks with Israel Exclude Golan Heights
December 31, 2026 drops to 12%7%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani clarified at the Munich Security Conference that negotiations with Israel are strictly limited to areas recently occupied after Assad's fall, excluding the broader Golan Heights issue.
U.S.-mediated Israel-Syria talks in Paris establish joint communication channel
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%1%
In mid-February 2026, U.S.-brokered talks between Israel and Syria in Paris led to the creation of a joint fusion mechanism for intelligence sharing and military de-escalation. This was a significant step toward improved security coordination but fell short of full diplomatic normalization.
Syrian Foreign Minister Clarifies Talks with Israel Exclude Golan Heights and Normalization
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%8%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani stated that negotiations are focused solely on stopping Israeli military incursions and do not address the broader issue of the Golan Heights or full normalization.
Syrian Foreign Minister states talks with Israel aim to stop interference, not accept imposed terms
December 31, 2026 drops to 10%10%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani emphasized that negotiations with Israel focused on ending Israeli interference and military actions in southern Syria rather than accepting terms imposed by force. This highlighted ongoing tensions and unresolved issues, tempering expectations for rapid normalization.
Syrian FM States Talks with Israel Exclude Broader Golan Heights Issue
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%10%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani clarified that negotiations were strictly limited to areas occupied after December 2024, dampening hopes for a comprehensive peace treaty or full normalization.
Syrian president’s overtures to Israel face renewed criticism
December 31, 2026 dips to 4%4%
Foreign Policy reported on Feb 14 2026 that Sharaa’s earlier hints at normalization were met with criticism from regional actors, reinforcing the view that a deal was unlikely and pushing prices lower.
Market hits lowest confidence in normalization amid ongoing military strikes and political resistance
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%10%
By mid-February 2026, market prices for normalization reached lows (11% for December 31, 2026), reflecting persistent Israeli military actions in Syria, Syrian political resistance, and lack of progress in talks, signaling diminished chances of normalization soon.
U.S. debate over guaranteeing Israel’s qualitative military edge intensifies
Yes drops to 11%10%
A War on the Rocks analysis highlighted growing U.S. skepticism about continued military aid to Israel, suggesting a shift that could reduce Israel’s leverage in regional diplomatic talks, including with Syria, further lowering market confidence.
Clashes erupt in Aleppo after SDF‑government tensions
December 31, 2026 drops to 13%6%
Violent confrontations in Aleppo between Syrian forces and SDF fighters highlighted ongoing instability, further eroding confidence in any near‑term Israel‑Syria diplomatic breakthrough.
U.S. defense analysts argue Israel’s military edge reduces incentive for diplomatic deals
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%2%
War on the Rocks argued that Israel’s qualitative military edge, bolstered by U.S. aid, lessens its need for a Syrian peace deal, prompting the market to slide to its lowest point in February.
Market dips amid reports of Israeli military activity in southern Syria
December 31, 2026 drops to 13%8%
Continued Israeli military operations in southern Syria raised tensions and cast doubt on the prospects for normalization, contributing to a market price trough.
Market confidence dips amid ongoing security concerns and lack of formal deal
June 30, 2026 drops to 7%12%
Despite ongoing talks and mechanisms for cooperation, no official announcement of diplomatic normalization was made, and Israeli security actions in Syria continued, leading to a significant drop in market optimism for normalization by mid-2026.
Hezbollah‑Israel border clashes raise security concerns, dampening normalization hopes
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%4%
Following renewed Hezbollah rocket fire and Israeli retaliation reported on Feb 13 2026, regional security tensions rose, reducing confidence in any near‑term Israel‑Syria diplomatic breakthrough and driving both market prices to their lowest points.
Syria insists on Israeli withdrawal before strategic progress possible
December 31, 2026 drops to 10%12%
A Syrian official stated that moving forward on strategic files with Israel is impossible without a clear timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal, reinforcing barriers to normalization and pushing market prices lower.
US‑Saudi talks fail to produce Israel normalization roadmap
June 30, 2026 drops to 5%6%
War on the Rocks noted on Feb 13 2026 that a high‑level US‑Saudi meeting produced no concrete steps toward Israel‑Saudi or Israel‑Syria normalization, deepening market doubts.
UN reports cease‑fire breach in Golan Heights
December 31, 2026 jumps to 20%6%
UN observers reported a cease‑fire breach in the Golan Heights, reigniting fears of renewed hostilities and prompting a modest bounce in the market’s Yes probability for the later December‑2026 outcome as some traders speculated a security crisis might force a formal diplomatic settlement.
Syrian source reports accelerated talks toward U.S.-brokered Israel-Syria security deal
December 31, 2026 drops to 12%7%
A Syrian source indicated that Israeli and Syrian officials are expected to finalize a U.S.-mediated security pact soon, with discussions including a 25-year Golan lease and the opening of an Israeli embassy in Damascus by late 2026. This optimism caused a sharp market price drop, reflecting increased confidence in normalization prospects.
EU leaders pledge support for Syria’s recovery post-civil war
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%11%
European Union officials visited Syria and pledged financial aid for reconstruction, signaling Syria’s improving relations with the West but not directly with Israel. This nuanced development did not significantly boost market expectations for Israel-Syria normalization by the end of 2026.
Israel’s far‑right government expands settlement policy
December 31, 2026 dips to 15%4%
Further settlement expansion announcements by Israel’s far‑right coalition signaled a continued focus on territorial issues rather than diplomatic outreach to Syria, pushing prices lower.
Syrian Foreign Minister signals pragmatic approach to Israel talks, downplays Golan Heights dispute
December 31, 2026 drops to 12%8%
On February 12, 2026, Syrian FM Asaad al-Shaibani indicated that negotiations with Israel focused on security arrangements excluding the Golan Heights issue, suggesting a pragmatic approach to normalization. This raised cautious optimism but also highlighted unresolved core disputes, causing mixed market reactions.
Syrian Foreign Minister reports stalled Israeli-Syrian rapprochement efforts
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani stated that efforts to bridge gaps with Israel have stalled, reflecting deep mistrust and ongoing military tensions. This news further reduced market confidence in normalization by mid-2026 and end-2026.
Clashes between Syrian government forces and Kurdish fighters continue amid stalled talks
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%2%
Renewed clashes and failure to merge Kurdish forces with Syrian army further diminished prospects for normalization, causing market prices for both June 30 and December 31, 2026 outcomes to fall to historic lows.
US House panel discusses improving Israel-Syria security ties amid concerns
In February 2026, a US House panel hearing highlighted US mediation efforts to improve Israel-Syria security coordination, including a joint communication channel for intelligence sharing and military de-escalation. Concerns remained over violence and minority targeting in Syria, tempering optimism.
U.S.‑brokered Israel‑Syria talks in Paris fail to produce agreement
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%10%
AP reported on Feb 11 2026 that Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris under U.S. mediation but left without a concrete security accord, reinforcing market pessimism and coinciding with the steep price decline from 21 % to 11 % for the December‑31 outcome.
U.S.-Mediated Talks Establish Security Coordination Between Israel and Syria
December 31, 2026 rises to 17%4%
In January 2026, U.S.-mediated talks in Paris led to an agreement on a joint fusion mechanism for intelligence sharing, security coordination, and military de-escalation between Israel and Syria. This development raised market optimism for normalization, reflected in a slight price increase for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee hears testimony on Israel-Syria security progress
June 30, 2026 dips to 9%3%
Testimony highlighted that Israeli and Syrian cooperation against Iranian proxies opens the door for peace and development, but emphasized that direct Turkey-Israel relations remain necessary. This nuanced view tempered market optimism about rapid normalization, contributing to price declines.
U.S. House Hearing Highlights Improved Israel-Syria Security Coordination
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
A U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing discussed the establishment of a joint fusion mechanism for intelligence sharing and military de-escalation between Israel and Syria, reflecting progress in security ties but also concerns over ongoing violence. This reinforced cautious optimism but did not confirm normalization, contributing to market fluctuations.
U.S. military aid to Israel escalates but no Israeli concessions on Syria normalization
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%5%
U.S. military support to Israel increased, reinforcing Israel's military edge. However, Israel showed no intent to make political concessions in Syria, continuing military operations and occupation, which reduced market confidence in normalization prospects.
Analysis questions effectiveness of Israel's military edge for peace
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
Experts noted that despite Israel's military dominance, there was no corresponding political progress toward peace or normalization with neighbors including Syria, reflecting entrenched positions and reducing market optimism.
U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee hears on improving Israel-Syria ties
Testimony highlighted U.S. efforts, led by President Trump, to facilitate Israel-Syria security coordination and potential peace, emphasizing the removal of Iranian influence and the importance of regional stability. This reinforced market optimism about eventual normalization, contributing to price fluctuations.
Hezbollah official states group will not abide by Lebanon-Israel talks agreements
December 31, 2026 drops to 13%8%
Hezbollah's rejection of any agreements from Lebanon-Israel talks signaled continued regional hostility and instability, indirectly affecting Syria-Israel normalization prospects and contributing to market pessimism.
Analysis questions effectiveness of U.S. military aid in fostering Israeli peace concessions
December 31, 2026 drops to 10%11%
A critical analysis highlighted that despite Israel's military edge and U.S. support, there is no Israeli intent to make concessions, reducing the likelihood of normalization with Syria or other neighbors in the near term.
U.S.-mediated talks establish joint communication channel between Israel and Syria
Following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's government, U.S. mediation led to a joint fusion mechanism for intelligence sharing and military de-escalation between Israel and Syria, marking a step toward improved security coordination but not full normalization.
Syrian official states no progress without Israeli troop withdrawal timeline
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%4%
In early February 2026, Syrian officials emphasized that strategic progress with Israel requires a clear timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal from Syrian territory. This hardened stance reduced market confidence in full normalization by mid-2026.
U.S. and Iran agree to hold nuclear talks in Oman amid regional tensions
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%3%
The U.S. and Iran agreed to resume talks in Oman, reflecting ongoing regional diplomatic activity that indirectly affects Israel-Syria relations by influencing broader Middle East dynamics, but no direct progress on normalization was reported.
Israel and Syria agree on joint security mechanism in U.S.-mediated talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%1%
In early February, Israeli and Syrian officials agreed to establish a joint fusion mechanism for intelligence sharing and military de-escalation, marking the most substantive engagement in decades but stopping short of full normalization. This progress raised hopes for eventual diplomatic ties but maintained uncertainty about timing, leading to modest market adjustments.
Syrian government and Kurdish forces sign ceasefire agreement
June 30, 2026 dips to 7%2%
Syrian President al-Sharaa and Kurdish leader Mazloum Abdi signed a ceasefire agreement, consolidating Syrian government control and improving regional stability, which was seen as a positive step toward enabling normalization talks with Israel.
Trump administration promotes Syria-Israel peace initiative
June 30, 2026 plunges to 6%44%
Trump emphasized the importance of Israel maintaining a strong dialogue with Syria, but Netanyahu remained cautious about territorial concessions. Market price remained low.
Limited travel through Rafah crossing resumes under EU supervision
June 30, 2026 dips to 10%2%
The partial reopening of the Rafah crossing indicated some humanitarian easing but did not translate into diplomatic normalization between Israel and Syria, maintaining low market confidence in normalization by mid-2026.
U.S.-mediated Israel-Syria talks yield joint security coordination mechanism
June 30, 2026 dips to 9%4%
Following U.S. mediation, Israeli and Syrian officials agreed to a joint fusion mechanism for intelligence sharing and military de-escalation, marking a significant step toward improved security ties but falling short of full normalization. This raised market hopes for eventual diplomatic progress.
U.S. analysis questions effectiveness of Israel’s military edge for peace
June 30, 2026 drops to 13%6%
A critical analysis emerged questioning whether Israel’s military superiority fosters peace, highlighting Israel’s territorial expansions and lack of concessions, which dampened market optimism for normalization with Syria by mid-2026.
US announces establishment of joint fusion mechanism between Israel and Syria
December 31, 2026 rises to 24%2%
Israel, Syria, and the US announced a joint fusion mechanism for intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, and diplomatic engagement, marking a significant step toward security cooperation but not full normalization.
Syria demands Israeli troop withdrawal before advancing strategic talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 29%4%
A Syrian official stated that progress on strategic issues with Israel is impossible without a clear timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal from Syrian territory seized after Assad's overthrow, dampening market optimism.
New ceasefire and phased military integration agreement reached between Syrian regime and Kurdish forces
June 30, 2026 dips to 9%3%
On January 30, 2026, a ceasefire and phased military and administrative integration agreement was reached between the Syrian government and Kurdish forces, reducing conflict in northern Syria. This development indirectly affected Israel-Syria relations by stabilizing Syria's internal situation, but did not directly advance normalization talks.
U.S.-mediated talks in Paris advance Israel-Syria security pact discussions
December 31, 2026 rises to 23%2%
Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris under U.S. mediation to finalize a security pact, including potential embassy openings and a 25-year Golan lease, raising hopes for normalization and causing market optimism.
Israel and UAE deepen cooperation supporting Druze factions in Syria amid Saudi opposition
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%7%
Israel’s cooperation with the UAE to support Druze groups in Syria, opposed by Saudi Arabia, exacerbated regional divisions and complicated prospects for Israeli-Syrian normalization, contributing to market decline.
Israel and UAE cooperate to support Druze groups in Syria
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%3%
Israel and UAE reportedly cooperating to support Druze groups in Syria, increasing regional tensions and complicating any potential normalization with Syria.
Syrian President Sharaa consolidates control, undermines Kurdish autonomy
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
President Ahmed al-Sharaa's efforts to unify Syria and suppress Kurdish autonomy reduced fragmentation risks but maintained tensions with Israel, limiting normalization prospects and keeping market prices low.
Trump Presses Netanyahu for Syria Security Deal Within One Month
U.S. President Donald Trump spoke with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and reportedly set a one-month deadline for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to finalize the security pact.
Israel and Syria Move Toward U.S.-Brokered Security Deal and Potential Diplomatic Ties
December 31, 2026 rises to 25%4%
Reports emerged that Syrian and Israeli officials were set to meet under U.S. mediation to finalize a security pact, with optimistic sources suggesting a potential 25-year Golan Heights lease and the opening of an Israeli embassy in Damascus by late 2026.
Syrian source says Israel-Syria security deal to be finalized soon
December 31, 2026 rises to 25%3%
A Syrian source indicated that a U.S.-brokered security deal between Israel and Syria was close to finalization, including potential diplomatic relations and an Israeli embassy in Damascus, raising market hopes temporarily.
Reports of imminent finalization of US-brokered Israel-Syria security deal
June 30, 2026 rises to 27%2%
Sources close to Syrian President al-Sharaa indicated that Israeli and Syrian officials were expected to meet soon to finalize a comprehensive security agreement, raising market hopes for progress toward normalization.
Reports indicate Israel-Syria to finalize U.S.-brokered security deal soon, with talks on Golan lease and embassy opening
December 31, 2026 drops to 13%6%
Sources close to Syrian President al-Sharaa indicated imminent finalization of a security pact including a 25-year lease of the Golan Heights to Israel and potential embassy opening, signaling progress but no formal normalization yet.
Syrian source says Israel-Syria to finalize US-brokered security deal soon
June 30, 2026 dips to 14%2%
A Syrian source indicated that Israeli and Syrian officials were expected to finalize a US-mediated security agreement soon, including discussions on a 25-year Golan lease and opening an embassy by late 2026. This news increased market optimism for normalization by mid and end of 2026.
Syrian Source Reports Progress Toward Potential Peace Deal and Embassy Opening with Israel
December 31, 2026 rises to 24%4%
A source close to Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa reported that talks could expand beyond security to include diplomatic relations, a 25-year Golan Heights lease, and an embassy opening by late 2026.
Reports of imminent finalization of US-brokered Israel-Syria security deal
December 31, 2026 rises to 24%2%
Sources close to Syrian President al-Sharaa indicated that Israeli and Syrian officials were expected to finalize a security agreement soon, including potential joint economic projects and discussions of diplomatic relations, raising market hopes temporarily.
Reports indicate Israel and Syria to finalize US-brokered security deal soon
December 31, 2026 rises to 24%3%
Sources close to Syrian President al-Sharaa indicated that talks under US mediation were progressing toward finalizing a security agreement, raising market expectations temporarily despite no formal announcement yet.
Syria and Israel Expected to Meet Soon to Finalize Security Deal
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%1%
Reports indicated that Syrian and Israeli officials would meet soon to finalize a security pact, with rumors of a potential 25-year Golan Heights lease and embassy openings.
Syrian source reports Israel-Syria to finalize U.S.-brokered security deal soon
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%1%
A Syrian source told i24NEWS that Israeli and Syrian officials were expected to meet soon to finalize a U.S.-mediated security pact, including discussions of a 25-year Golan lease and opening an Israeli embassy in Damascus by late 2026. This indicated accelerating diplomatic momentum.
Reports Emerge of Potential Golan Heights Lease and Embassy Opening in Syria
December 31, 2026 rises to 22%1%
A source close to Syrian President al-Sharaa revealed that Syria was open to a 25-year lease of the Golan Heights and opening an Israeli embassy in Damascus, though Israel's historical stance made this highly speculative.
Israel and Syria to Finalize US-Brokered Security Deal Soon
December 31, 2026 jumps to 24%5%
Reports emerged that Israeli and Syrian officials were preparing to meet in Paris to finalize a security agreement, with optimistic sources even discussing the potential opening of an Israeli embassy in Damascus.
Syrian Source Outlines Potential Golan Heights Lease and Embassy Opening Plans
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%1%
Reports emerged that Syria would consider full diplomatic relations and a 25-year lease of the Golan Heights under heavy U.S. pressure, though Israel's historical stance made this highly complex.
Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev meets U.S. delegates in Davos amid peace talks
Russian negotiator Dmitriev met with U.S. envoys including Jared Kushner to discuss peace plans, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts involving regional conflicts but with no direct breakthrough on Israel-Syria normalization, maintaining market uncertainty.
U.S.-mediated Israel‑Syria security talks resume in January
June 30, 2026 rises to 20%4%
A Reuters report on the resumption of US‑mediated security talks after a brief hiatus added a modest uptick (+7 pts) to the June‑2026 outcome, reflecting renewed hope of a security framework that could lead to full diplomatic ties.
Syrian foreign minister says normalization talks have stalled
June 30, 2026 drops to 9%7%
A tweet from Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al‑Shaibani on Jan 17 2026 reported that efforts to bridge the gap with Israel had stalled, reinforcing market pessimism and prompting a further price drop.
U.S.-Mediated Talks Advance Toward Israel-Syria Security Pact and Possible Embassy Opening
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%4%
Reports indicated that Israeli and Syrian officials were moving beyond a limited security arrangement toward full diplomatic normalization, including discussions of a 25-year Golan lease and an Israeli embassy in Damascus by late 2026. This optimism initially boosted market prices for normalization by the end of 2026.
US envoy Tom Barrack mediates Israel-Syria talks focusing on security pact
US Special Envoy Tom Barrack facilitated talks between Israel and Syria aiming at a security agreement and de-escalation, marking the most substantive direct engagement in decades. This raised market optimism for a June 30, 2026 resolution but did not yet indicate full normalization.
Israeli military intensifies operations in Gaza amid ongoing conflict
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%13%
Israel's focus on military operations and settlement expansion signaled a hardening stance, reducing optimism for diplomatic breakthroughs with Syria. This contributed to a further decline in market prices for normalization by December 31, 2026.
EU leaders visit Syria, pledge reconstruction aid but note security concerns
December 31, 2026 drops to 25%6%
AP reported a visit by EU officials to Damascus, offering billions in aid while stressing that ongoing clashes and lack of a clear diplomatic path with Israel keep normalization prospects low, contributing to another price decline.
Renewed Israel-Syria talks in Paris stall over Israeli demands for full diplomatic relations
December 31, 2026 drops to 13%8%
A fifth round of talks in Paris resumed but progress stalled as Israel shifted demands to require full diplomatic relations, which Syria rejected. This hardened stance led to a decline in market confidence about normalization prospects by mid-2026.
Israel reiterates commitment to dialogue and regional stability with Syria
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%2%
Israel's Prime Minister's office announced continued dialogue with Syria to promote common goals and maintain security of the Druze minority, reflecting ongoing diplomatic engagement but no formal normalization yet.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu approves major natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%3%
Netanyahu’s approval of a $35 billion natural gas deal with Egypt strengthened regional economic ties but did not directly advance Israel-Syria normalization, contributing to stable but low market confidence in normalization by end of 2026.
Reports of stalled progress as Syria demands Israeli troop withdrawal before normalization
December 31, 2026 drops to 20%6%
Syrian officials insisted on Israeli withdrawal to pre-December 2024 borders before any final agreement, while Israel maintained demands for security guarantees, causing market skepticism and price declines.
Syrian official states strategic talks stalled without Israeli troop withdrawal timeline
December 31, 2026 plunges to 26%19%
Following the January 6 agreement, a Syrian official indicated that progress on strategic issues would not advance without a clear, enforceable timeline for Israeli withdrawal from territories seized after December 2024. This hardened stance contributed to declining market confidence in full normalization by mid-January 2026.
Syrian‑Kurdish talks in Damascus end without tangible results
December 31, 2026 drops to 20%8%
A high‑level meeting between Syrian officials and SDF commander Mazloum Abdi produced no concrete agreement, reinforcing market pessimism about any diplomatic progress with Israel.
Israel reiterates commitment to regional stability and economic cooperation with Syria
Israel's Prime Minister's office emphasized ongoing dialogue to promote security, protect minorities, and advance economic cooperation, indicating continued talks without breakthrough on normalization.
Analysis highlights potential but challenges in Israel-Syria normalization
December 31, 2026 rises to 23%3%
Experts noted the recent meetings as important diplomatic steps toward normalization, but also highlighted ongoing obstacles such as Israeli control over the Golan Heights and Syrian public opposition, tempering market optimism.
Israeli and Syrian delegations hold important diplomatic meeting in Paris
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
Israeli and Syrian delegations met in Paris under US auspices, marking an important diplomatic step toward normalization but with significant obstacles remaining, including Israeli control of the Golan Heights.
Israeli and Syrian delegations meet in Paris under US auspices, advancing talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
On January 11, 2026, Israeli and Syrian delegations met in Paris with US mediation, marking an important diplomatic step but without agreement on full normalization or troop withdrawals, leading to market price declines.
Analysis highlights potential breakthrough in Israel-Syria relations after Paris talks
December 31, 2026 rises to 27%3%
Experts noted the January 2026 talks as a possible step toward normalization, citing prior de-escalation agreements and US mediation, which briefly supported market optimism.
End of the state of war with Syria? — Israel Hayom analysis
Yes dips to 8%3%
An opinion piece in Israel Hayom highlighted the Paris meeting as a “step toward normalisation” but emphasized that key issues—particularly Israeli control of the Golan—remained unresolved, keeping market optimism low.
Analysis highlights US role in Syria-Israel soft normalization via joint mechanism
Analysis emphasized that the US-led joint fusion mechanism between Syria and Israel represents a soft normalization step rather than full diplomatic relations, reflecting limited market enthusiasm for complete normalization by end of 2026.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris
June 30, 2026 plunges to 6%44%
Joint statement confirmed establishment of a joint communication cell for intelligence sharing and military de-escalation, but no agreement on normalization was reached. Market price remained low.
Experts highlight joint mechanism as potential path to normalization
December 31, 2026 rises to 25%3%
Analysts noted that the joint communication mechanism between Israel and Syria could pave the way for normalization, though recent hostilities in Syria threaten progress, reflecting cautious market optimism.
Trilateral meeting between US, Israel, and Syria shows promise in diplomatic engagement
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
A trilateral meeting under US leadership reaffirmed commitments to lasting security and stability, establishing a joint fusion mechanism for coordination, indicating positive diplomatic momentum but no formal normalization yet.
Expert analysis highlights potential breakthrough in Israel-Syria relations
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%10%
On January 9, 2026, analysis from Texas A&M University noted the recent Israel-Syria agreement as a potential breakthrough toward normalization, citing prior de-escalation agreements. Despite this, ongoing hostilities and unresolved issues tempered market enthusiasm.
Experts highlight potential but challenges in Israel-Syria talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 43%1%
Analysts noted the recent meetings as important diplomatic steps toward normalization but emphasized ongoing obstacles, tempering market enthusiasm for near-term full normalization.
Analysis highlights potential for Israel-Syria normalization after US-mediated talks
June 30, 2026 rises to 25%4%
Experts noted that the January 2026 trilateral meeting and joint communication mechanism could pave the way for normalization, though challenges remain due to ongoing hostilities and political complexities.
Expert analysis sees joint mechanism as potential breakthrough despite challenges
December 31, 2026 jumps to 28%8%
A US academic highlighted the joint communication cell as a significant diplomatic step that could pave the way for future engagement, though hostilities in Syria pose risks to progress.
Expert analysis sees US-brokered Israel-Syria talks as potential normalization step
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%6%
An expert from Texas A&M University described recent US-mediated talks as potentially paving the way for normalization between Israel and Syria, highlighting the significance of the Aleppo agreement as a de-escalation model. This analysis provided some optimism but no concrete deal.
Expert analysis highlights potential for positive diplomatic engagement
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%1%
A Texas A&M professor noted that the joint communication cell could pave the way for improved relations, but recent hostilities in Aleppo threaten progress, reflecting ongoing instability.
Expert analysis highlights promise of US-brokered Israel-Syria communication cell
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%1%
A Texas A&M professor noted the joint communication cell as a major success story potentially paving the way for positive diplomatic engagement, though internal Syrian hostilities pose risks.
Expert analysis highlights promise and challenges in Israel-Syria-US trilateral talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 23%5%
A Texas A&M professor noted the historic nature of the US-brokered talks and the establishment of a communication cell, but warned that recent hostilities in Syria could threaten progress, reflecting cautious market sentiment.
US-brokered talks between Israel and Syria show promise for normalization
June 30, 2026 dips to 7%2%
Experts noted that the fifth round of US-brokered talks between Israel and Syria, publicly acknowledged for the first time, could pave the way for normalization, though challenges remain due to internal opposition and regional dynamics.
Analysis highlights potential for normalization but notes ongoing challenges
December 31, 2026 dips to 24%4%
Experts noted that recent agreements and meetings could pave the way for normalization, but ongoing hostilities and unresolved issues in Syria limit progress, tempering market optimism.
Experts see promise in Israel-Syria-U.S. trilateral meeting but warn of challenges
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%2%
A trilateral meeting showed potential for diplomatic engagement, with experts noting the importance of U.S. leadership but warning that internal Syrian opposition and regional hostilities could threaten progress.
Texas A&M analysis says Israel‑Syria talks could lead to breakthrough
An analysis piece highlighted the significance of the communication cell and suggested it could pave the way for full diplomatic ties. The expert commentary added credibility to the process, keeping the market flat around 11 % for the December‑2026 outcome.
Experts say public announcement of talks marks first official acknowledgment
June 30, 2026 dips to 19%2%
Texas A&M analyst Emma Lawson quoted Barrack describing the Paris talks as a “breakthrough” and noted that the public acknowledgment of the talks was the first time they were disclosed. The commentary reinforced market doubts that the talks would lead to full diplomatic relations, keeping the “Yes” probability low at 19 % for the June‑30 outcome.
Analysis highlights potential but challenges in Israel-Syria diplomatic engagement
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%7%
Experts noted the recent meetings as important diplomatic steps toward normalization but emphasized significant obstacles remain, including security and territorial issues, which kept market expectations low.
Experts highlight potential for positive diplomatic engagement after US-brokered Israel-Syria meeting
December 31, 2026 drops to 15%5%
Analysis from experts noted the establishment of the joint coordination mechanism as a major success and a potential foundation for future diplomatic progress, though normalization remained uncertain.
Experts say public announcement of Israel‑Syria communication cell signals real progress
December 31, 2026 jumps to 28%8%
Analysts at Texas A&M highlighted that the public acknowledgment of the communication cell was the first concrete sign of progress, reinforcing market belief in a possible formal diplomatic opening and adding a small +8 pt swing for the December‑2026 outcome.
Netanyahu reportedly cuts tactical deal with Iran amid regional tensions
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%6%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly reached a tactical non-aggression deal with Iran, easing some regional tensions but not directly advancing Israel-Syria normalization. Market impact was limited but contributed to cautious sentiment.
Trilateral US-Israel-Syria meeting shows promise but Aleppo hostilities threaten progress
December 31, 2026 rises to 23%3%
A trilateral meeting under US auspices indicated potential for significant diplomatic engagement, but recent hostilities in Aleppo raised concerns about the durability of progress, contributing to market uncertainty.
Lebanese Armed Forces announce operational control south of Litani River amid regional security efforts
The Lebanese Armed Forces completed a phase of their roadmap to secure southern borders, indirectly impacting regional security dynamics relevant to Israel-Syria relations and market sentiment.
State Department publishes joint statement on Israel‑Syria trilateral meeting
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%1%
The US State Department released the official joint statement confirming the fusion mechanism and reiterating both sides’ commitment to “lasting security and stability”. The formal documentation further weakened market optimism, pushing the price down to 11 % for the December‑2026 outcome.
US revokes terrorist designations on Syrian leadership
June 30, 2026 dips to 8%3%
J Street reported that the Trump administration revoked terrorist designations on Syrian leaders, a move interpreted as political goodwill toward Damascus and potentially easing the path to normalization. The news coincided with the low point of the June 30 2026 price (8%).
Lebanese Armed Forces claim operational control south of Litani amid regional shifts
While not directly about Israel-Syria normalization, this development in Lebanon reflects broader regional security dynamics affecting Israel's northern borders, indirectly influencing market sentiment on Israel-Syria relations.
Analysis highlights Syrian public opposition to normalization with Israel
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%5%
Polling showed only 14% of Syrians support normalization, indicating strong domestic resistance that complicates official diplomatic recognition and contributed to market price declines.
Syria Reportedly Open to Israel Opening a Non-Diplomatic Liaison Office in Damascus
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%5%
Reports indicated that Syria was open to a US-backed security initiative that included allowing Israel to open a liaison office in Damascus without formal diplomatic status.
Joint US-Israel-Syria statement affirms commitment to lasting security arrangements
June 30, 2026 drops to 15%5%
A trilateral joint statement was released affirming Israel and Syria's commitment to lasting security and stability arrangements, highlighting the establishment of the joint fusion mechanism. This public acknowledgment marked a diplomatic milestone but did not include formal normalization.
Joint statement by U.S., Israel, and Syria affirms commitment to security and stability
December 31, 2026 dips to 23%4%
A trilateral joint statement highlighted commitment to lasting security arrangements and cooperation, reflecting progress in dialogue but no official diplomatic normalization, keeping market prices low.
Analysis highlights potential for Syria-Israel normalization but notes challenges
Experts noted that the January 6 agreement could pave the way for normalization, but recent hostilities and unresolved issues like Israeli troop withdrawal limited progress. Market prices reflected tempered optimism amid ongoing uncertainties.
Analysts say Jan 7 joint statement is only a soft‑normalisation step
June 30, 2026 dips to 5%3%
Analysts highlighted that the communication cell was a “soft‑normalisation” step rather than a full diplomatic tie, reinforcing market sentiment that a complete Israel‑Syria relationship was unlikely before year‑end, further lowering the Yes probability for both outcomes.
Syrian Official Demands Clear Timeline for Israeli Troop Withdrawal
June 30, 2026 dips to 12%4%
A Syrian official stated that strategic progress is impossible without a binding timeline for Israeli withdrawal from seized territories, highlighting the limits of the newly formed mechanism.
EU leaders pledge support for Syria's recovery post-civil war
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%6%
European Union officials visited Syria and pledged financial aid for reconstruction, indicating Syria's improving international relations but highlighting ongoing internal challenges that complicate normalization with Israel.
Israel reiterates commitment to regional stability and economic cooperation with Syria
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
Israel's Prime Minister's office emphasized ongoing dialogue to promote security and economic cooperation, including protecting the Druze minority, indicating sustained but cautious engagement without full normalization.
Israel and Syria renew diplomatic dialogue with U.S. backing
Renewed diplomatic talks with American support focused on regional stability and security, maintaining market hopes for normalization despite ongoing challenges.
US State Department confirms Israel-Syria joint fusion mechanism
December 31, 2026 drops to 44%7%
The US State Department published a joint statement confirming the establishment of a 'joint fusion mechanism' between Israel and Syria, reinforcing the partial normalization framework but not full diplomatic ties, maintaining market uncertainty.
Syrian Officials Reject Joining Abraham Accords and Demand Troop Withdrawal
June 30, 2026 rises to 17%2%
Reports highlighted that Syria rejected joining the Abraham Accords and conditioned strategic progress on a clear timeline for Israeli military withdrawal from seized territories.
Joint statement issued by U.S., Israel, and Syria on trilateral meeting in Paris
December 31, 2026 dips to 24%3%
A joint statement released on January 7, 2026, by the U.S., Israel, and Syria confirmed productive discussions and the establishment of a dedicated communication cell. The statement emphasized turning a new page but did not announce formal diplomatic relations, tempering market optimism.
Israel and Syria resume diplomatic talks in Paris under US mediation
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%1%
Senior Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris to discuss security coordination and economic opportunities, renewing diplomatic dialogue but stopping short of formal normalization.
Everything you need to know about the Syria‑Israel deal in Paris
Yes dips to 11%3%
Al Jazeera published an explainer piece summarising the Paris talks and noting that the agreement covered only intelligence sharing and de‑escalation, not full diplomatic recognition. The article’s tone reinforced market participants’ view that a full “Yes” outcome was unlikely.
Joint statement issued on trilateral meeting between U.S., Israel, and Syria
The U.S., Israel, and Syria released a joint statement highlighting productive discussions under U.S. leadership, emphasizing respect for Syria's sovereignty and Israel's security, which briefly bolstered market confidence in normalization prospects.
US-backed Israel-Syria talks focus on border security and economic cooperation
June 30, 2026 dips to 14%2%
US mediation continued with talks emphasizing border security and economic ties, but no breakthrough on full diplomatic normalization was reported, contributing to continued market decline.
Analysis highlights soft normalization via joint mechanism but low Syrian public support
December 31, 2026 dips to 22%1%
Analyses noted that while the joint fusion mechanism represents a soft normalization step, full diplomatic relations remain off the table, with only 14% of Syrians supporting normalization. This public opposition and lack of formal peace agreement contributed to market pessimism about full normalization by June or December 2026.
Joint US-Israel-Syria statement affirms commitment to security arrangements
A trilateral statement highlighted the parties' determination to improve relations and establish mechanisms for cooperation, reinforcing the January 6 agreement but stopping short of diplomatic normalization.
Analysis highlights promise and challenges in Israel-Syria-US trilateral engagement
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%5%
Experts noted the establishment of the joint coordination mechanism as a major success, potentially paving the way for positive diplomatic engagement despite ongoing hostilities in Syria.
Analysis highlights US role and challenges in Syria-Israel deal
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%2%
Reports emphasized US President Trump's leadership in facilitating talks and the complexities due to Syrian public opposition and Israeli security concerns, explaining market skepticism about full normalization by 2026.
US State Department publishes joint statement affirming Israel-Syria joint fusion mechanism
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%3%
The US State Department released a joint statement confirming the establishment of a joint fusion mechanism between Israel and Syria, signaling a soft normalization arrangement under US supervision but not full diplomatic relations.
US, Israel, Syria issue joint statement on trilateral meeting in Paris
December 31, 2026 rises to 20%3%
A joint statement by the US, Israel, and Syria highlighted productive discussions under President Trump's leadership, emphasizing respect for sovereignty, security, and prosperity but no formal normalization announcement.
US State Department confirms joint fusion mechanism between Israel and Syria
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%1%
The US State Department published a joint statement affirming the establishment of a joint fusion mechanism between Israel and Syria, signaling a soft normalization arrangement but not full diplomatic relations, limiting market upside.
Israel and Syria resume diplomatic dialogue with US backing
June 30, 2026 drops to 21%11%
After months of silence, Israel and Syria resumed diplomatic talks supported by the US, focusing on security coordination and economic cooperation, reinforcing the joint mechanism agreement but without formal normalization.
Joint statement issued by US, Israel, and Syria on trilateral meeting in Paris
December 31, 2026 rises to 27%1%
The US, Israel, and Syria released a joint statement highlighting productive discussions under US auspices focused on respect for Syria's sovereignty and Israel's security. This formal acknowledgment of engagement was a positive diplomatic signal but fell short of normalization.
Israel confirms resumption of diplomatic dialogue with Syria under US backing
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%2%
Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu's office confirmed the resumption of diplomatic talks with Syria, emphasizing regional stability, security, and economic cooperation, including protection of the Druze minority, reinforcing the January 6 agreement's significance.
Syria and Israel agree on dedicated communication cell after US-mediated talks
June 30, 2026 rises to 9%2%
Following US-mediated talks in Paris, Syria and Israel agreed to set up a dedicated communication cell to share intelligence and coordinate military de-escalation, marking a formal step in diplomatic engagement but not full normalization.
Detailed overview of Israel-Syria deal highlights security and economic cooperation
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%3%
Reports detailed the joint mechanism for intelligence sharing and military de-escalation, emphasizing US influence and Israel's interest in countering Turkish influence, but no full diplomatic normalization yet.
Everything you need to know about the Syria‑Israel deal in Paris
December 31, 2026 dips to 16%3%
Al Jazeera published an analysis of the Paris deal, highlighting the creation of a joint intelligence‑sharing mechanism but emphasizing that full diplomatic recognition was still pending. The piece tempered expectations and coincided with the market’s continued decline (December 31 2026 fell to 16%).
Analysis highlights Syria-Israel joint mechanism as soft normalization
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%2%
An analysis described the joint fusion mechanism between Syria and Israel as a soft normalization arrangement under US influence, reflecting limited progress and public opposition in Syria. This tempered market optimism about full normalization.
Analysis highlights potential but challenges in Israel-Syria normalization talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%4%
On January 7, 2026, analyses noted the establishment of a joint mechanism as a potential step toward normalization but emphasized ongoing hostilities and political obstacles, tempering market expectations for full normalization soon.
US affirms Israel-Syria joint fusion mechanism under Trump’s leadership
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%1%
The US State Department released a joint statement confirming the establishment of a fusion mechanism between Israel and Syria, emphasizing ongoing dialogue but no formal diplomatic normalization, which kept market prices low.
US, Israel, and Syria issue joint statement on trilateral meeting in Paris
December 31, 2026 drops to 19%7%
A joint statement by the US, Israel, and Syria highlighted productive discussions under US leadership focusing on sovereignty, security, and prosperity, reinforcing diplomatic progress but not formal normalization, leading to market uncertainty.
Everything you need to know about the Syria‑Israel deal in Paris
June 30, 2026 drops to 10%8%
Al Jazeera published a detailed analysis of the Paris deal, describing it as a “joint mechanism aimed at sharing intelligence and military de‑escalation” but emphasizing that no full diplomatic ties were established, cementing the market’s view that a Yes outcome was unlikely (price stayed below 10 % through March 2026).
US-backed Israel-Syria deal aims to boost Syrian economy and regional stability
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
A US-mediated deal proposed economic cooperation and security arrangements between Israel and Syria, but full diplomatic normalization remained uncertain, leading to continued market decline.
Israel and Syria agree on joint mechanism to share intelligence and seek economic ties
June 30, 2026 jumps to 35%5%
Following talks in Paris, Israel and Syria agreed to a mechanism facilitating de-escalation, diplomacy, and commercial opportunities, reaffirming commitments to security and stability. This reinforced market optimism temporarily.
Senior Israeli and Syrian officials meet in Paris under U.S. auspices
December 31, 2026 drops to 34%6%
Senior officials from Israel and Syria met in Paris with U.S. mediation to discuss security arrangements and economic cooperation, reaffirming commitment to stability but without announcing diplomatic relations.
Israel, Syria agree to joint communication mechanism in U.S.-brokered talks
June 30, 2026 drops to 8%14%
On Jan 6 the State Department released a joint statement confirming that Israel and Syria had established a joint fusion/communication mechanism. The announcement was seen as a concrete step toward soft normalization, pulling the Yes‑price on the June 30 2026 outcome down sharply from 22% to 8% as market participants judged the step insufficient for full diplomatic ties.
Israel and Syria formalize joint communication mechanism in US-brokered talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%6%
The US Department of State and involved parties announced the formalization of the joint fusion mechanism to manage intelligence sharing and military de-escalation, signaling continued cooperation but no full diplomatic normalization.
Israel and Syria establish joint fusion mechanism under U.S. supervision
A joint statement by the U.S., Israel, and Syria announced the establishment of a dedicated communication cell to coordinate intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, diplomatic engagement, and commercial opportunities. This formalized the soft normalization mechanism but did not constitute full diplomatic relations, leading to market price drops reflecting skepticism about full normalization by mid or end 2026.
Joint statement by U.S., Israel, and Syria affirms commitment to security and stability
December 31, 2026 jumps to 24%12%
The trilateral joint statement underscored the parties' determination to improve relations and coordinate on multiple fronts, reinforcing market optimism temporarily.
U.S., Israel, Syria announce resumption of diplomatic dialogue in Paris
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%16%
Senior Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris under U.S. mediation, marking a major diplomatic breakthrough after months of silence and renewed security coordination discussions.
Israel and Syria establish joint fusion mechanism under US supervision
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%8%
A trilateral statement announced a joint communication cell for intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, diplomatic engagement, and commercial opportunities, showing formalized cooperation but not full normalization.
Israel, Syria agree to dedicated communication line in US‑brokered talks
Yes drops to 16%6%
A joint statement released by the State Department announced that Israel and Syria had agreed to set up a “joint fusion mechanism” and a dedicated communication line. While a concrete step, it was widely described as a soft‑normalisation rather than full diplomatic recognition, prompting a large drop in the market’s “Yes” odds.
Israel and Syria agree to establish joint communication cell under US mediation
In Paris, Israel and Syria agreed to set up a joint fusion mechanism for intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, and diplomatic engagement under US supervision, marking a significant step in their security talks but falling short of full normalization.
Joint U.S.-Israel-Syria statement affirms commitment to lasting security arrangements
December 31, 2026 drops to 19%7%
The U.S. State Department released a joint statement confirming Israel and Syria's commitment to lasting security and stability arrangements and the establishment of a dedicated communication cell, reflecting progress but no formal diplomatic relations yet.
U.S. releases joint statement on Israel‑Syria communication cell
June 30, 2026 plunges to 11%21%
The official U.S. press release on Jan 6 announced the establishment of the joint communication cell, widely reported as a “breakthrough”. The market reacted with a sharp decline (‑21 points) from 32 % on Dec 10 to 11 % on Jan 5, reflecting skepticism that the step amounted to full normalization.
U.S. announces Israel‑Syria “joint fusion mechanism”
December 31, 2026 jumps to 21%8%
The U.S. State Department published a joint statement announcing a “joint fusion mechanism” between Israel and Syria, described by analysts as a soft‑normalisation deal. The news pushed the market’s “Yes” probability up (from 13 % on 2026‑01‑02 to 21 % on 2026‑01‑07), reflecting optimism that formal diplomatic ties might soon be announced.
Joint statement confirms Israel-Syria communication mechanism but highlights Israeli troop withdrawal demands
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%6%
While a communication mechanism was agreed upon, Syrian officials stated that progress on strategic issues requires a clear timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal, tempering market optimism.
Syria insists on Israeli troop withdrawal before advancing strategic talks
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%
A Syrian official stated that progress on strategic issues with Israel is impossible without a clear timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal from Syrian territory seized after Assad's overthrow, dampening market expectations for full normalization by June 2026.
US announces joint fusion mechanism between Israel and Syria
The US State Department published a joint statement confirming the establishment of a "joint fusion mechanism" between Israel and Syria, a soft normalization arrangement focused on coordination rather than formal diplomatic ties, reflecting cautious progress in relations.
Joint US-Israel-Syria statement affirms commitment to security and stability
The trilateral statement highlighted a mutual commitment to lasting security arrangements and the establishment of a communication cell, reflecting progress in diplomatic engagement but falling short of full normalization.
US State Department confirms joint fusion mechanism between Israel and Syria
December 31, 2026 drops to 37%7%
The US State Department published a joint statement confirming the establishment of a "joint fusion mechanism" between Israel and Syria, facilitating cooperation but falling short of full normalization.
Israel, Syria, US launch dedicated communication cell to coordinate intelligence and de‑escalation
December 31, 2026 drops to 12%10%
A joint statement from the US, Israel and Syria reported the creation of a dedicated communication line – the “fusion mechanism”. The announcement marked the first concrete institutional framework, lifting the “December 31 2026” probability from 22 % to 12 % the following day.
Joint U.S.-Israel-Syria statement affirms commitment to security and cooperation
June 30, 2026 dips to 19%3%
A trilateral statement from the U.S., Israel, and Syria highlighted productive discussions under U.S. leadership, emphasizing respect for sovereignty, security, and prosperity, but stopped short of announcing formal diplomatic normalization.
Israel and Syria announce joint fusion mechanism for coordination under US supervision
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%6%
A joint statement by the US, Israel, and Syria announced the establishment of a dedicated communication cell to coordinate intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, diplomatic engagement, and commercial opportunities. This formal announcement confirmed progress but did not constitute full normalization, causing mixed market reactions.
Israel and Syria reaffirm commitment to security and establish joint communication cell
December 31, 2026 rises to 22%2%
Under US auspices, Israel and Syria publicly confirmed a joint mechanism for intelligence sharing and military de-escalation, maintaining diplomatic dialogue but without progress toward full normalization, leading to modest market gains.
US, Israel, and Syria Announce Agreement on Permanent Security Arrangements
December 31, 2026 dips to 26%2%
Following high-level talks in Paris, the three nations released a joint statement agreeing to establish a joint coordination mechanism and communication cell under US supervision.
Syrian Official Demands Israeli Troop Withdrawal Before Strategic Progress
June 30, 2026 jumps to 16%5%
A Syrian official stated that moving forward on strategic files is impossible without a clear timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal, tempering hopes for rapid normalization.
Israel, Syria, and US announce joint communication cell for coordination
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%2%
A trilateral statement confirmed establishment of a joint fusion mechanism to facilitate intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, diplomatic engagement, and commercial opportunities under US supervision, maintaining cautious optimism.
Syrian official demands Israeli troop withdrawal before advancing strategic talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%10%
A Syrian official stated that progress on strategic issues with Israel is impossible without a clear timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal from Syrian territory seized after Assad's overthrow. This stance dampened market expectations for near-term normalization.
US State Department issues joint statement on Israel-Syria talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 drops to 37%7%
The US, Israel, and Syria released a joint statement affirming their commitment to lasting security and stability arrangements and the establishment of a joint fusion mechanism. This official endorsement reinforced the diplomatic progress but did not confirm normalization.
US State Department publishes joint statement on Israel-Syria talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 36%8%
The US State Department released a joint statement on January 6, 2026, confirming the establishment of a "joint fusion mechanism" between Israel and Syria. This official acknowledgment reinforced the partial normalization but highlighted the absence of full diplomatic relations, contributing to market decline.
Israel and Syria resume diplomatic dialogue with US backing
June 30, 2026 rises to 24%3%
After months of silence, Israel and Syria resumed diplomatic talks supported by the US, focusing on security coordination and potential economic cooperation. This renewed dialogue was cautiously welcomed but did not indicate imminent normalization.
Syrian official states progress impossible without Israeli troop withdrawal timeline
December 31, 2026 drops to 23%10%
Following the January 6 talks, a Syrian official declared that moving forward on strategic issues with Israel was impossible without a clear and enforceable timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal from Syrian territory seized after Assad's overthrow. This stance dampened market optimism.
US State Department announces joint fusion mechanism between Israel and Syria
June 30, 2026 jumps to 30%8%
The US State Department published a joint statement confirming that Israel and Syria established a 'joint fusion mechanism' for intelligence sharing and coordination, marking a soft normalization arrangement. This development briefly boosted market confidence in normalization prospects.
Syrian official states no progress without Israeli withdrawal from seized territories
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%10%
A Syrian official declared that strategic progress with Israel is impossible without a clear timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal from Syrian territory seized since late 2024, highlighting a key obstacle to normalization and pressuring market sentiment downward.
US State Department announces joint fusion mechanism between Israel and Syria
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
A joint statement confirmed establishment of a "joint fusion mechanism" for intelligence sharing, diplomatic engagement, and military de-escalation, representing a soft normalization but not formal diplomatic relations.
Israel, Syria set up communication mechanism after U.S. talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%7%
Reuters reported that Israel and Syria agreed, under U.S. mediation, to set up a communication mechanism for security, intelligence and commercial issues. The announcement raised hopes of a breakthrough but, because it stopped short of full diplomatic recognition, the market’s Yes odds fell sharply (from 37 % to 21 % by 13 January).
Israel’s Prime Minister’s office confirms resumed diplomatic dialogue with Syria
December 31, 2026 jumps to 28%6%
Netanyahu’s office announced the resumption of diplomatic dialogue with Syria backed by the US, emphasizing security and regional stability but without announcing formal normalization, reflecting ongoing cautious progress.
US-mediated Israel-Syria talks held in Paris to revive 1974 disengagement agreement
Negotiations in Paris focused on reviving the 1974 disengagement agreement and establishing security arrangements, but no breakthrough on full normalization was achieved, tempering market optimism.
US State Department says Israel and Syria have created a joint fusion mechanism
December 31, 2026 jumps to 27%6%
The US State Department announced the establishment of a “joint fusion mechanism”, a concrete step toward soft normalisation; the market rose to 27 % Yes on 2026‑01‑06 for the Dec‑2026 outcome.
Israel and Syria agree to establish joint communication mechanism under US mediation
June 30, 2026 plunges to 32%18%
Under US auspices, Israel and Syria agreed in Paris to create a joint fusion mechanism for intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, diplomatic engagement, and commercial opportunities. This marked a significant diplomatic step but fell short of full normalization, causing a temporary market price increase followed by decline.
Israel and Syria agree on joint intelligence sharing and military de-escalation mechanism
December 31, 2026 jumps to 20%6%
Israel and Syria, under US supervision, agreed to a dedicated communication cell to coordinate intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, and diplomatic engagement, signaling a positive but limited step toward normalization.
Israel and Syria renew diplomatic dialogue with U.S. backing
December 31, 2026 drops to 24%7%
Following the establishment of the joint fusion mechanism, Israel and Syria officially resumed diplomatic dialogue with U.S. support, focusing on security and economic cooperation, reflecting a cautious but historic thaw.
Israel, Syria agree to joint communication mechanism under U.S. supervision
Israel and Syria agreed to establish a joint fusion mechanism for intelligence sharing and military de-escalation under U.S. oversight, reflecting progress in dialogue but not full normalization, causing minor price fluctuations.
Israel, Syria agree to dedicated communication cell under US supervision
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%4%
Israel and Syria agreed to establish a joint mechanism for sharing intelligence and coordinating military de-escalation under United States supervision, which will also facilitate diplomatic engagement and commercial opportunities. This agreement was a significant step toward normalization.
Joint statement issued by US, Israel, and Syria on trilateral meeting in Paris
The US, Israel, and Syria released a joint statement highlighting productive discussions and a determination to improve relations, signaling diplomatic engagement but not formal normalization. This maintained market interest but did not confirm normalization.
US releases joint statement confirming Israel‑Syria fusion mechanism
December 31, 2026 jumps to 36%8%
A formal US‑issued joint statement confirmed the establishment of the “joint fusion mechanism”. The clear, official confirmation pushed the December‑2026 price upward again (≈ 36 % Yes) after a brief trough.
Joint US-Israel-Syria statement affirms commitment to security and stability
June 30, 2026 dips to 33%3%
A trilateral statement released after talks in Paris under US auspices reaffirmed commitments to security, intelligence sharing, and diplomatic engagement, reflecting a cautious but positive diplomatic development.
Joint statement by US, Israel, and Syria announces trilateral meeting outcomes
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%7%
A joint statement released by the US, Israel, and Syria highlighted productive discussions in Paris under US leadership, focusing on respect for sovereignty and security but without formal normalization, reflecting cautious market sentiment.
US State Department releases joint statement on Israel-Syria talks in Paris
June 30, 2026 drops to 10%11%
The US, Israel, and Syria issued a joint statement highlighting productive discussions under US auspices focused on sovereignty, security, and prosperity, signaling diplomatic engagement but not full normalization.
US State Department releases joint statement on Israel-Syria talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 dips to 25%4%
The US State Department published a joint statement on January 6, 2026, confirming productive discussions between Israel and Syria under US auspices, emphasizing respect for sovereignty and security but not announcing full normalization.
U.S. State Department issues joint statement on Israel‑Syria mechanism
Yes drops to 14%6%
The U.S. State Department published a joint statement confirming the establishment of a “joint fusion mechanism”. Analysts treated the wording as confirming only limited cooperation, not full diplomatic ties, reinforcing the downward trend in the market.
Syria insists on Israeli troop withdrawal before advancing strategic talks
A Syrian official stated that progress on strategic issues with Israel would be impossible without a clear timeline for Israeli withdrawal from Syrian territory seized after Assad's overthrow, highlighting a major sticking point in negotiations.
Syrian Official Rules Out Strategic Progress Without Israeli Troop Withdrawal Timeline
June 30, 2026 dips to 11%4%
A Syrian official stated that moving forward on strategic files is impossible without a clear timeline for Israeli withdrawal from seized territories, tempering immediate normalization hopes.
U.S., Israel and Syria announce joint communication cell
June 30, 2026 drops to 8%14%
A joint statement released by the State Department announced a new “joint fusion mechanism” – a dedicated communication cell for intelligence sharing and de‑escalation – but stopped short of full diplomatic recognition. The announcement triggered the biggest price drop for the June 30, 2026 outcome, pushing the “Yes” probability to single‑digit levels.
U.S.-Mediated Security Talks Between Israel and Syria Resume in Paris
June 30, 2026 rises to 13%2%
After a multi-month interruption, senior Israeli and Syrian officials resumed direct negotiations in Paris, focusing on border security and the withdrawal of Israeli troops.
Syria, Israel resume U.S.-mediated security talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%10%
Reuters reported the resumption of U.S.-mediated security talks after a several‑month pause. The news raised expectations that a formal agreement could be reached, but because the talks were described as focused on a 1974 disengagement rather than full normalisation, the market again moved lower (from 21 % to 11 % by 1 January).
Syrian government and Kurdish-led force deal unravels amid new clashes
June 30, 2026 drops to 8%5%
The breakdown of a ceasefire deal between the Syrian government and Kurdish forces, with ensuing violence and IS prisoner escapes, further destabilized Syria, diminishing hopes for normalization with Israel and pushing market prices lower.
US-mediated Israel-Syria security talks resume in Paris
June 30, 2026 drops to 12%7%
After months of interruption, US-mediated talks resumed with Syrian and Israeli delegations meeting in Paris to discuss border issues and a new security agreement. This renewed engagement was a positive step but did not resolve core disputes, leading to mixed market reactions.
US brokers structured communication channels between Israel and Syria
December 31, 2026 jumps to 23%5%
In 2026, US-mediated talks established communication mechanisms aimed at de-escalation and crisis prevention rather than normalization, reflecting a pragmatic approach that tempered market expectations for diplomatic relations.
Israel and Syria Resume U.S.-Mediated Security Talks in Paris
June 30, 2026 rises to 15%4%
Direct talks between high-level Israeli and Syrian delegations resumed in Paris under U.S. mediation, aiming to resolve border disputes and discuss a security framework.
U.S.-mediated talks between Israel and Syria resume in Paris
December 31, 2026 dips to 22%3%
After months of silence, Israel and Syria resumed U.S.-mediated talks in Paris on January 5, 2026, focusing on reviving the 1974 disengagement agreement and addressing Israeli troop withdrawals. This renewed dialogue was a critical step but did not yet yield full normalization.
Delcy Rodríguez sworn in as Venezuela’s interim president
While unrelated directly to Israel-Syria relations, this event reflects regional political shifts and complexities in Middle Eastern and allied countries' diplomacy, indirectly influencing geopolitical calculations.
Israel and Syria agree to establish joint communication mechanism in Paris talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%5%
Under US supervision, Israel and Syria agreed to create a dedicated communication cell for intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, and diplomatic engagement, marking a significant step toward soft normalization but not full diplomatic relations.
EU leaders visit Syria, pledge support and lift sanctions
June 30, 2026 dips to 18%4%
AP reported on Jan 5 2026 that EU officials met interim President Ahmad al‑Sharaa, announced €620 million aid and lifted sanctions, signalling improved ties with the West but no direct Israel‑Syria breakthrough, which kept market sentiment low.
Syrian and Israeli Delegations Resume Indirect Negotiations in Paris
June 30, 2026 dips to 13%3%
A senior Syrian delegation led by Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani met with Israeli representatives in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks focused on reviving the 1974 Disengagement Agreement.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris on security agreement
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%8%
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks focusing on security arrangements and establishing a joint communication cell, signaling diplomatic engagement but no formal normalization yet.
US-mediated Syria-Israel talks held in Paris on security arrangements
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%5%
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris for US-mediated talks to discuss security arrangements, signaling some diplomatic engagement but no breakthrough on normalization. The talks provided a modest positive signal but did not reverse the downward market trend.
U.S.-mediated Israel-Syria security talks resume after months of silence
December 31, 2026 drops to 23%8%
Talks between Israel and Syria resumed under U.S. mediation focusing on reviving the 1974 disengagement agreement and addressing Israeli troop withdrawals. The resumption indicated ongoing diplomatic efforts but also underscored persistent challenges, contributing to market uncertainty and price declines.
Syria and Israel resume U.S.-mediated security talks in Paris
After months of interruption, Syria and Israel resumed U.S.-mediated talks focused on reviving the 1974 disengagement agreement and addressing Israeli troop withdrawals. This renewed engagement raised hopes for progress but did not yet signal normalization, causing moderate market optimism.
U.S.-mediated Israel-Syria security talks resume after months of silence
June 30, 2026 drops to 24%9%
Talks resumed under U.S. mediation focusing on security arrangements, with Syria seeking Israeli troop withdrawal from territory seized after Assad's fall. This renewed dialogue was a key step but did not yet yield normalization.
US-Mediated Security Talks Between Israel and Syria Resume in Paris
December 31, 2026 jumps to 28%9%
Syria and Israel resumed direct security talks in Paris under US mediation, with Damascus pushing for the withdrawal of Israeli troops to pre-December 2024 lines.
Israel and Syria resume US-mediated security talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 drops to 20%11%
On January 5, 2026, Israel and Syria resumed high-level security negotiations in Paris under US coordination, focusing on reviving the 1974 disengagement agreement and addressing military de-escalation, which temporarily boosted market optimism.
Syria and Israel resume US-mediated security talks in Paris
June 30, 2026 jumps to 22%6%
After months of silence, Syria and Israel resumed US-mediated talks focusing on security and reviving the 1974 disengagement agreement, signaling cautious diplomatic progress but no formal normalization yet.
US-mediated Syria-Israel talks resume after months of silence
June 30, 2026 dips to 21%1%
Diplomatic talks resumed in Paris under US mediation focusing on reviving the 1974 disengagement agreement and Israeli troop withdrawal demands, signaling renewed but cautious progress.
EU delegation highlights Syria’s reconstruction, not Israel ties
June 30, 2026 drops to 12%10%
During the EU visit, officials focused on reconstruction aid and a ceasefire with Kurdish forces, offering no progress on Israel‑Syria diplomatic normalization, reinforcing market pessimism.
US-mediated talks between Israel and Syria resume with focus on troop withdrawal
June 30, 2026 drops to 13%6%
Talks resumed under US mediation with Syria demanding Israeli withdrawal from territory seized after Assad's fall, but Israel maintained its position requiring a comprehensive deal, limiting progress toward normalization.
Syria and Israel resume US-mediated security talks focusing on 1974 disengagement agreement
December 31, 2026 dips to 37%3%
Syria and Israel resumed talks mediated by the US aiming to revive the 1974 disengagement agreement, but these discussions were limited to security and ceasefire issues rather than full normalization, keeping market confidence low.
Syria and Israel resume U.S.-mediated security talks in Paris
After months of interruption, Syria and Israel resumed U.S.-mediated talks focusing on reviving the 1974 disengagement agreement and addressing Israeli troop presence in Syrian territory. This renewed dialogue initially raised hopes for progress, reflected in market optimism.
Syria, Israel resume U.S.–mediated security talks in Paris
June 30, 2026 drops to 22%14%
Reuters reported that U.S.‑mediated security talks between Israel and Syria resumed in Paris after a several‑month pause, but both sides stressed that “strategic files” such as full diplomatic recognition remained unresolved, pushing the “Yes” odds down to 22 % on 10 Dec 2025 and continuing a downward trend.
Syria, Israel resume U.S.-mediated security talks in Paris
Yes drops to 21%12%
Reuters reported that U.S.‑mediated security talks between Israel and Syria resumed in Paris after a months‑long pause. The restart was seen as a step forward but far short of a full diplomatic agreement, sending the “Yes” probability down further.
U.S.-mediated security talks between Israel and Syria resume in Paris
December 31, 2026 jumps to 24%5%
Talks focused on reviving the 1974 disengagement agreement resumed, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts and causing a slight market uptick for normalization by December 31, 2026.
Israel clears final hurdle for E1 West Bank settlement project
December 31, 2026 jumps to 28%6%
Israel’s approval of the contentious E1 settlement tender heightened regional tensions and signaled a focus on settlement expansion rather than diplomatic outreach to Syria, pulling prices down further.
Negotiations fail as Israel imposes security by force in southern Syria
June 30, 2026 drops to 12%10%
Israeli military advances and control in southern Syria, combined with Syria's internal chaos, led to failed US-mediated negotiations and reinforced the market's decline in normalization prospects by early 2026.
Analysis warns of grim outlook for Middle East peace including stalled Israel-Syria normalization
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
Despite earlier optimism, regional politics and recalcitrance of players like Israel and Syria have collided with peace efforts. Israel continues military actions in Syria and occupies territory, while Syria faces internal challenges. This reality dampened market optimism further, pushing prices down.
U.S.-mediated Israeli-Syrian talks resume in Paris
June 30, 2026 plunges to 6%44%
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris for U.S.-brokered talks aimed at a security agreement, signaling renewed diplomatic efforts. However, no normalization was achieved, and the market price dropped sharply.
Israeli military actions and regional tensions keep normalization prospects low
June 30, 2026 drops to 22%14%
Despite a new Syrian regime and some diplomatic overtures, Israel's ongoing military strikes in Syria and Lebanon, and its policies in Gaza and the West Bank, sustained deep mistrust and diminished hopes for normalization with Syria by mid-2026.
Optimism fades as regional realities stall Israel-Syria progress
December 31, 2026 drops to 20%6%
Despite earlier hopes, Israeli military actions in Syria and ongoing distrust, especially regarding Syria's new leadership and Israeli security concerns, have stalled normalization prospects, leading to further market price declines.
U.S.-brokered Israeli-Syrian security talks show promise but face challenges
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%6%
Washington brokered senior-level talks between Israel and Syria about a security accord, offering a historic opportunity for easing tensions. However, Israeli strategic interests and Syria's internal challenges limited progress toward normalization, contributing to market decline.
Middle East outlook grim as Israeli-Syrian talks stall
June 30, 2026 drops to 13%9%
Despite initial promise of a U.S.-brokered Israeli-Syrian security accord, Israeli concerns over security and territorial control stalled progress, reducing market confidence in normalization by mid-2026.
Middle East looks toward grim 2026 outlook
June 30, 2026 rises to 15%1%
Foreign Policy article warned that promising regional developments have collided with recalcitrant Middle Eastern players, creating a pessimistic outlook for normalization.
Israeli settlement construction tender clears final hurdle near Jerusalem
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%14%
Israel cleared the final administrative step to begin construction on the contentious E1 settlement project near Jerusalem, further straining regional relations and diminishing hopes for normalization with Syria by year-end 2026.
Syrian and Israeli officials resume U.S.-mediated talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%9%
Officials from Syria and Israel met in Paris to discuss reactivating the 1974 disengagement agreement and Israeli withdrawal from the buffer zone, aiming to reduce tensions but without progress toward full normalization.
Syrian President al‑Sharaa says security agreement with Israel is at an advanced stage
December 31, 2026 jumps to 31%13%
Al‑Sharaa told reporters that a security agreement was “at an advanced stage”, briefly reviving market confidence; price rose to 31 % Yes on 2025‑12‑30.
Syria hints at conditional liaison office in Damascus
June 30, 2026 rises to 13%1%
Reports emerged that a Syrian source indicated willingness to open a limited liaison office in Damascus contingent on progress in talks. The optimism was short‑lived; the market dipped again to 13 % on Feb 23, suggesting the news failed to alter expectations of full normalization.
U.S.‑Saudi reconfiguration article notes no concrete steps toward Israel‑Syria normalization
December 31, 2026 drops to 24%11%
War on the Rocks analysis on Dec 30 2025 highlighted that Saudi and broader Arab leaders see no tangible timeline or confidence‑building measures for Israel‑Syria diplomatic ties, underscoring regional skepticism and contributing to the market’s decline in late December.
Saudi Arabia uses military force in Yemen amid UAE tensions
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%8%
Saudi Arabia's military action in Yemen against UAE-backed forces underscored regional rivalries and complicated Gulf cooperation, indirectly affecting Israel-Syria normalization prospects by highlighting broader regional instability.
Hezbollah replaces top security official amid internal restructuring
Yes drops to 24%6%
Hezbollah’s leadership change signalled ongoing instability on Israel’s northern frontier, reinforcing concerns that security tensions would dominate the agenda and further dampen normalization hopes, pushing prices lower.
Trump says Syria likely to join Abraham Accords by year‑end
Yes drops to 38%6%
President Donald Trump told reporters in Palm Beach that he expected Syria to join the Abraham Accords this year. The comment was interpreted as an optimistic signal but also highlighted the difficulty of securing a full diplomatic breakthrough, causing the market’s “Yes” probability to fall sharply over the following days.
US President Trump meets Israeli PM Netanyahu, urges renewed Syria talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%4%
President Trump met Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago, encouraging the renewal of stalled talks with Syria as part of his broader Middle East peace vision, aiming to stabilize the region and promote economic cooperation.
Trump hosts Netanyahu and Syrian President al-Sharaa, signaling U.S. backing for peace talks
June 30, 2026 dips to 33%3%
U.S. President Donald Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, reinforcing U.S. mediation efforts and boosting hopes for progress in Israeli-Syrian talks.
US President Trump expresses confidence in Syria-Israel agreement
December 31, 2026 surges to 45%17%
At a press conference with Netanyahu, Trump expressed confidence that Syrian and Israeli leaders would reach an agreement, boosting market optimism temporarily about a near-term deal.
Trump meets Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to advance Middle East peace talks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 36%5%
President Trump’s meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on December 29, 2025, reinforced U.S. commitment to facilitating Israel-Syria dialogue, temporarily boosting market confidence in normalization prospects.
Israel and Syria agree to create joint mechanism for intelligence sharing and de-escalation
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%2%
In US-mediated talks in Paris, Israel and Syria agreed to establish a dedicated communication cell to facilitate intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, diplomatic engagement, and commercial opportunities, signaling a step toward normalization.
Trump meets Netanyahu in Florida, pushing for Israel-Syria non-aggression pact
At the end of 2025, Trump and Netanyahu agreed to accelerate negotiations with Syria towards a non-aggression pact, aiming to pave the way for normalization. This raised hopes but did not immediately translate into formal diplomatic ties.
President Trump meets Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago to discuss Middle East peace including Syria
Trump emphasized advancing peace in the Middle East and expressed hope for progress on Israel-Syria relations, increasing diplomatic momentum for talks between the two countries.
US President Donald Trump meets Israeli PM Netanyahu, expressing hope for Syria deal
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%2%
Trump's meeting with Netanyahu reinforced US support for Middle East peace efforts including potential normalization between Israel and Syria, temporarily boosting market confidence.
Trump and Netanyahu meet in Palm Beach, hint at Israel‑Syria breakthrough
December 31, 2026 drops to 38%5%
Trump and Netanyahu’s meeting at Mar‑a‑Lago was portrayed as the final step before a formal normalization. Market optimism peaked at 38 % on 10 Dec 2025, then fell as details remained vague.
Trump meets Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago, boosting hopes for Israel-Syria talks
December 31, 2026 surges to 45%19%
On December 29, 2025, President Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, reinforcing U.S. support for advancing peace talks with Syria. This meeting raised market optimism for progress in the negotiations.
Israel and Syria resume diplomatic talks under US mediation
December 31, 2026 drops to 46%5%
On December 29, 2025, Israel and Syria resumed diplomatic talks with US backing, focusing on border security and regional stability. This renewed dialogue raised market optimism about potential progress toward normalization.
US President Trump hosts Netanyahu, urges renewal of Israel-Syria talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%5%
President Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago, urging the restart of stalled talks with Syria as part of his Middle East peace vision, temporarily boosting market optimism.
Trump, Netanyahu meet at Mar-a-Lago; US, Israel, Syria announce renewed diplomatic push
December 31, 2026 drops to 25%6%
President Donald Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago, and the US, Israel, and Syria announced that senior Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris under US auspices, marking a renewed diplomatic push with plans for closer security coordination and potential economic engagement.
Trump urges Netanyahu to restart talks with Syria at Mar-a-Lago
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%2%
US President Trump met with Netanyahu and pushed for renewed negotiations with Syria as part of his Middle East peace vision, increasing diplomatic momentum and US involvement in the process.
Trump meets Netanyahu to push Middle East peace including Syria
June 30, 2026 drops to 36%14%
President Donald Trump met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago to discuss advancing peace in the Middle East, including efforts to normalize relations with Syria. This meeting raised initial market optimism about potential normalization.
Trump hosts Netanyahu, urges restart of Israel-Syria talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 26%4%
US President Trump met Israeli PM Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago, urging renewed negotiations with Syria as part of his Middle East peace vision, boosting market hopes temporarily.
Trump and Netanyahu discuss Middle‑East peace in Palm Beach
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%11%
During a private meeting in Palm Beach, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu discussed the next steps of the peace plan, but no concrete agreement with Syria was announced, causing the market to downgrade the “Yes” probability further.
US President Trump hosts Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu amid Syria talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%6%
President Trump met with Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago, emphasizing US support for Israel-Syria dialogue and peace efforts. Despite this high-level backing, Israeli demands and Syrian reservations kept normalization prospects uncertain, reflected in market price volatility.
US, Israel, Syria announce joint statement on security and economic cooperation
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%6%
The three countries released a joint statement affirming commitment to security arrangements and economic cooperation, including a $4 billion GDP growth proposal for Syria, but no formal diplomatic relations were announced.
Israeli troops expand control in Syrian territory post-Assad overthrow
June 30, 2026 plunges to 16%15%
Israeli military advances into Syrian territory seized after Assad's overthrow complicated normalization talks, causing market prices to decline due to increased tensions and Syrian demands for troop withdrawal.
Trump and Netanyahu Meet at Mar-a-Lago to Discuss Syria and Regional Peace
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%4%
President Trump hosted Prime Minister Netanyahu in Florida, urging him to reach an agreement and 'get along' with Syria's new government, which catalyzed a resumption of direct talks.
Trump hosts Netanyahu and Syrian President al‑Sharaa to launch new US‑backed Israel‑Syria peace effort
December 31, 2026 drops to 29%6%
US President Donald Trump met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa at Mar‑a‑Lago and announced a renewed US‑backed peace push, stating that the three sides would resume direct talks. The high‑profile meeting lifted market expectations of a formal diplomatic breakthrough, pushing the “December 31 2026” probability up from 35 % to 29 % the next day.
Trump backs Syrian‑Israeli normalization in Palm Beach meeting
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%7%
President Donald Trump met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Palm Beach and publicly expressed support for a Syrian‑Israeli normalization deal. The optimistic remarks caused a brief rally in the market, raising the Yes‑price on the December 31 2026 chart to 28% before it fell again.
Trump meets Netanyahu, urges renewed talks with Syria
December 31, 2026 jumps to 35%7%
President Trump met Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago, encouraging the resumption of stalled talks with Syria as part of his Middle East peace plan, boosting market hopes temporarily.
Trump meets Israeli PM Netanyahu, emphasizing Middle East peace including Syria
December 31, 2026 rises to 29%4%
US President Trump met with Netanyahu, reinforcing US mediation efforts and regional peace plans including Syria normalization, which briefly supported market confidence in a deal by end of 2026.
US President Trump expresses confidence in Syria-Israel agreement
June 30, 2026 jumps to 28%7%
President Donald Trump publicly stated his confidence that Syrian and Israeli leaders would reach an agreement, boosting market optimism about normalization prospects.
US President Trump urges Netanyahu to restart stalled Israel-Syria talks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 27%5%
At Mar-a-Lago, US President Donald Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, urging him to renew negotiations with Syria as part of his Middle East peace vision. This intervention temporarily revived hopes for normalization, reflected in a brief market price increase.
US President Trump urges Israel to restart talks with Syria at Mar-a-Lago
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%1%
President Trump met with Netanyahu and urged restarting stalled talks with Syria as part of his Middle East peace vision, boosting hopes for progress and increasing market optimism temporarily.
Trump meets Netanyahu, urges renewal of Syria talks
US President Donald Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago, urging him to restart stalled talks with Syria as part of a broader Middle East peace vision. This US involvement briefly boosted market optimism for normalization.
State Department says Israel‑Syria mechanism excludes troop‑withdrawal issue
December 31, 2026 drops to 20%9%
A follow‑up press release emphasized that the mechanism would not address “strategic files” until Israeli troops withdrew, dampening hopes and pulling the price down to 20 % for the December‑2026 outcome.
Syria and Israel Progress Toward Security Agreement Mediated by Trump
December 31, 2026 drops to 25%6%
Reports emerged that security talks between Israel and Syria had progressed significantly, raising the possibility of a signed agreement with a diplomatic annex in the near future.
Israel recognizes Somaliland amid regional tensions
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%3%
Israel's recognition of Somaliland highlighted shifting regional alliances and distracted from progress on Israel-Syria normalization, contributing to market declines in normalization prospects.
EU leaders visit Syria, pledge support for recovery post-civil war
December 31, 2026 rises to 27%1%
European Union officials met with Syrian interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa, signaling Syria's improving relations with the West but no direct progress on Israel normalization. This event reflected Syria's fragile state and complex regional relations, dampening market optimism.
Syrian government casts Israeli military actions as attempt to fracture state
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%2%
Damascus criticized Israeli strikes and support for Druze factions as efforts to undermine Syrian unity, heightening regional tensions and complicating normalization prospects.
Talks progress on Syria-Israel security agreement, possible signing soon
June 30, 2026 dips to 33%3%
Reports indicated significant progress in talks over a security agreement between Syria and Israel, with a diplomatic annex possibly to be signed soon, raising market optimism for a deal by mid-2026.
Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa meets EU leaders signaling improved Western ties
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%4%
The EU delegation's visit and financial support pledge to Syria under al-Sharaa indicated Syria's diplomatic opening to the West but did not translate into progress on normalization with Israel, maintaining market skepticism.
EU leaders visit Syria, pledge aid but no diplomatic breakthrough on Israel ties
Yes drops to 25%6%
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President António Costa met Syrian interim president Ahmad al‑Sharaa, offering reconstruction aid but the visit did not produce any concrete steps toward Israel‑Syria diplomatic relations, reinforcing market pessimism.
EU leaders visit Syria and pledge financial support
June 30, 2026 drops to 14%10%
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President António Costa visited Syria, announcing €620 million in aid and signaling improved Western ties, but no mention of diplomatic relations with Israel, leaving normalization prospects unchanged.
Syrian interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa meets EU leaders pledging support for Syria’s recovery
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%10%
The EU pledged financial aid to Syria and recognized the new leadership under al-Sharaa, signaling improved Western relations. However, internal Syrian challenges and ongoing regional tensions limited immediate normalization prospects with Israel.
Syria's new leadership supports Lebanon's effort to disarm Hezbollah
June 30, 2026 drops to 20%5%
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa publicly supported disarming Hezbollah, signaling a shift in Syria's stance and potential for regional cooperation, but Israeli distrust and ongoing military actions kept normalization uncertain, causing market fluctuations.
Syrian president hints at possible Israel normalization in interview
June 30, 2026 jumps to 38%5%
Al Arabiya quoted President Ahmed al‑Sharaa suggesting that Syria might consider diplomatic ties with Israel, sparking a brief rally that lifted the June‑30 outcome by 5 points before the effect faded.
Syrian Source Reports Progress on Security Agreement with Israel
December 31, 2026 dips to 26%3%
A source close to Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa indicated that U.S.-mediated talks had progressed significantly, raising hopes of a security agreement with a diplomatic annex.
Israel and Syria agree to continue dialogue focusing on Druze minority security
December 31, 2026 rises to 27%1%
Following US-mediated talks, Israel and Syria agreed to maintain dialogue emphasizing security for the Druze minority, reflecting cautious progress but no formal normalization, leading to modest market stabilization.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu demands demilitarization of southern Syria
Netanyahu's demand for complete demilitarization and Syrian troop withdrawal heightened tensions, complicating normalization talks and causing market uncertainty.
Surge in Israeli settler violence in West Bank amid settlement expansion
December 31, 2026 jumps to 33%10%
Israeli settler violence surged in the West Bank following settlement expansions, increasing regional instability and reducing chances of diplomatic normalization with Syria. This contributed to further market price declines.
Syria publishes official map omitting Golan Heights, signaling de facto recognition of Israeli sovereignty
Syria's publication of a map omitting the Golan Heights was interpreted as a symbolic gesture towards recognizing Israeli control, which influenced market perceptions of progress in normalization talks.
Israeli government approves 19 new West Bank settlements including Yatziv
December 31, 2026 drops to 23%8%
The Israeli government approved multiple new settlements in the West Bank, including Yatziv, escalating tensions with Palestinians and undermining prospects for peace and normalization with Syria. This dampened market expectations for normalization by December 31, 2026.
Israeli cabinet approves 20 new West Bank settlements
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%8%
The Israeli government approved a batch of new settlements, underscoring a hard‑line stance that reduced optimism for any peace overture toward Syria, contributing to a price drop for both outcomes.
Israel approves 19 new West Bank settlements including Yatziv
June 30, 2026 dips to 18%4%
Israel's government approved new settlements in the West Bank, including Yatziv, escalating tensions with Palestinians and undermining prospects for peace and normalization with Syria. This contributed to a market price drop reflecting reduced chances of normalization by June 30, 2026.
EU leaders pledge support for Syria’s recovery after civil war
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%13%
European Union officials visited Syria and pledged financial support for reconstruction, indicating Syria’s improving international relations but not directly impacting Israel-Syria normalization prospects, leading to minor market fluctuations.
Israel stalls talks demanding full withdrawal before any diplomatic deal
June 30, 2026 rises to 23%1%
Media reported that talks stalled after Israel refused to withdraw from territories seized post‑December 2024, re‑introducing doubts about any formal normalization and causing a modest dip in both outcomes.
Paris talks reaffirm communication cell but leave troop‑withdrawal dead‑locked
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%9%
The joint statement from the Paris talks was repeated by U.S. officials, emphasizing that the “dedicated communication cell” would not address strategic files such as Israeli troop withdrawal. The lack of progress on core issues caused the market’s “Yes” odds to fall sharply to 21 % by Dec 30.
Syrian President al-Sharaa signals readiness for long-term negotiations on Golan Heights
December 31, 2026 jumps to 31%8%
At a diplomatic forum in Antalya, Syria's President al-Sharaa expressed willingness to consider long-term talks with Israel contingent on Israeli withdrawal from recently occupied territories, signaling a potential breakthrough.
Israel clears final hurdle for controversial West Bank settlement project
Yes drops to 24%7%
Israel approved the tender for the E1 settlement project near Jerusalem, underscoring its settlement expansion agenda and diminishing prospects for a regional diplomatic thaw, which contributed to a further price drop.
Israel and Syria agree to create joint communication mechanism in Paris talks
June 30, 2026 jumps to 23%5%
In U.S.-mediated talks in Paris, Israel and Syria agreed to establish a joint fusion mechanism to facilitate intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, diplomatic engagement, and commercial opportunities. This was a significant diplomatic step signaling soft normalization but not full diplomatic relations, causing market fluctuations.
Calls to repeal U.S. Caesar sanctions on Syria to aid recovery and diplomacy
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%9%
U.S. lawmakers urged repeal of sanctions to support Syria's reconstruction and political alignment with U.S. interests, potentially facilitating normalization talks. However, no immediate breakthrough occurred, reflecting cautious market sentiment.
Israeli airstrikes target Syrian military sites amid Druze massacres
December 31, 2026 surges to 42%19%
Israel conducted airstrikes on Syrian military headquarters and other sites in response to massacres of Druze in southern Syria, escalating tensions and undermining normalization prospects, causing market volatility.
US, Israel, Syria reaffirm security pact and launch communication cell
December 31, 2026 surges to 45%19%
A joint US‑Israel‑Syria statement reaffirmed commitment to a lasting security arrangement and announced the formal launch of the dedicated communication cell, lifting optimism and producing a +19 pt swing for the December‑2026 outcome.
Reports of renewed Israeli-Syrian talks and potential agreement based on 1974 disengagement accord
December 31, 2026 surges to 44%21%
Israeli sources indicated a close agreement was near, including a trilateral committee and security guarantees, briefly raising market confidence in normalization prospects.
Israel and Syria agree to create joint communication mechanism in Paris talks
December 31, 2026 surges to 45%31%
In US-mediated talks in Paris, Israel and Syria agreed to establish a joint fusion mechanism for intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, and commercial opportunities, marking a significant diplomatic step and briefly boosting market confidence.
Israel and Syria agree on joint mechanism for intelligence sharing and de-escalation
December 31, 2026 surges to 44%25%
During talks in Paris, the two countries agreed to establish a joint fusion mechanism for intelligence sharing and military de-escalation, raising hopes for gradual normalization and causing a temporary price increase.
U.S. sanctions threaten Syria's recovery under new leadership
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
U.S. sanctions aimed at the previous Assad regime continued to impact Syria's recovery under President Ahmed al-Sharaa, complicating prospects for normalization with Israel and regional stability.
EU leaders pledge €620 million support to Syria’s reconstruction
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%4%
While the EU’s financial pledge improved Syria’s economic outlook, it underscored Syria’s focus on internal rebuilding rather than regional diplomatic breakthroughs, contributing to a modest price rise then reversal.
Netanyahu Hosts US Special Envoy Tom Barrack in Jerusalem to Discuss Syria
December 31, 2026 jumps to 36%14%
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hosted U.S. Special Envoy Tom Barrack to coordinate on a potential diplomatic accord with Syria, sparking a temporary recovery in market optimism.
Israeli team reshuffle signals renewed push in Israel-Syria talks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 36%8%
Netanyahu appointed new leadership for Israeli negotiation team, signaling intent to advance talks despite challenges. This raised some market hopes for progress.
Renewed Israel-Syria talks resume in Paris under US mediation after months of silence
December 31, 2026 rises to 24%4%
Following a period of stalled negotiations, Israel and Syria resumed talks in Paris with US backing, focusing on border security and regional stability, which briefly raised hopes for progress in normalization.
Netanyahu places Ambassador Leiter at head of Israel‑Syria negotiating team
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%3%
Israel’s Prime Minister announced a reshuffle of its negotiating team, placing Ambassador Yechiel Leiter in charge of talks. Analysts interpreted the move as a sign of Israel’s willingness to compromise, nudging the market down from 38 % to 35 % for the December‑2026 outcome.
Netanyahu hosts US envoy Tom Barrack amid renewed Israel-Syria talks
June 30, 2026 drops to 37%6%
Netanyahu hosted US Special Envoy Tom Barrack as Israel agreed to restart stalled talks with Syria under US mediation. The Israeli team was restructured to include key security officials, signaling a serious approach to negotiations.
Renewed Israel-Syria talks in Paris under US mediation after months of silence
December 31, 2026 surges to 33%19%
After a hiatus, Israel and Syria resumed talks in Paris with US mediation, focusing on border security and regional stability, which initially raised market optimism for a deal by mid-2026.
Renewed Israel-Syria talks in Paris face stalled progress over humanitarian corridor and diplomatic demands
June 30, 2026 drops to 19%13%
A fifth round of talks began in Paris but progress stalled due to Israel's demand for a humanitarian corridor in Sweida and later full diplomatic relations, which Syria rejected. This caused market prices to drop significantly reflecting increased doubts about near-term normalization.
Israel appoints new team to lead Syria talks amid stalled progress
December 31, 2026 drops to 30%5%
With negotiations stalling over humanitarian corridor and diplomatic recognition demands, Israel replaced its lead negotiator, signaling a recalibration of its approach and causing market fluctuations.
Israel and Syria agree to create joint mechanism for de-escalation and cooperation
December 31, 2026 rises to 34%3%
During talks in Paris, Israel and Syria agreed to establish a joint communication cell to facilitate intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, and commercial opportunities under US supervision, reflecting a step toward normalization.
Israel and Syria resume talks in Paris amid stalled progress
June 30, 2026 drops to 20%12%
A fifth round of talks began in Paris after a pause, with Israel demanding humanitarian corridors and full diplomatic relations, which Syria rejected, causing stalled progress and market price declines.
US envoy mediates renewed Israel-Syria talks in Paris
June 30, 2026 drops to 26%7%
US Ambassador Tom Barrack led renewed talks in Paris to advance a security arrangement, reflecting US commitment to broker a deal and temporarily boosting market confidence.
Israel and Syria resume diplomatic dialogue under US mediation in Paris
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%1%
Senior officials from Israel and Syria met in Paris under US auspices to renew diplomatic talks, agreeing to establish a joint communication mechanism for intelligence sharing and military de-escalation, signaling progress but not full normalization.
Israeli leadership reshuffles team amid stalled Syria talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%6%
With negotiations stalling, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu appointed new officials to lead talks, signaling intent to push forward but also reflecting challenges in reaching agreement, causing market fluctuations.
Trump meets Netanyahu, pledges push for Israel‑Syria peace
December 31, 2026 dips to 32%3%
During a meeting at Mar‑a‑Lake, Trump publicly affirmed his support for a Syrian‑Israeli peace track and urged Netanyahu to resume talks. The announcement sparked a brief rally in the market (price rising to 32 % on Dec 3) before subsequent setbacks reversed the gain.
Netanyahu Appoints New Envoy to Renew Stalled Syria Talks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 35%13%
Prime Minister Netanyahu agreed to a request from Donald Trump to renew stalled talks with Damascus, appointing Israel's Ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, to lead the Israeli negotiating team.
Fifth round of Israel-Syria talks resumes in Paris after stalled progress
December 31, 2026 rises to 43%1%
After a pause, Israel and Syria resumed talks in Paris focusing on security arrangements, but disagreements over Israeli demands and Syrian sovereignty issues continued to hinder progress.
Israel demands full diplomatic relations; Syria rejects, complicating talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 34%7%
Reports indicated Israel shifted to demanding full diplomatic relations, which Syria rejected as not currently feasible, causing stalled progress and market price declines.
New Israeli team leads resumed talks in Paris amid stalled progress
June 30, 2026 plunges to 13%18%
Following the resignation of a key minister, Israel appointed a new delegation head for talks with Syria in Paris, but negotiations faced setbacks over issues like humanitarian corridors and demands for full diplomatic relations, causing market prices to decline.
EU delegation visits Syria, signals renewed Western engagement
December 31, 2026 drops to 23%8%
AP reported on Dec 14 2025 that EU leaders met Syrian interim president, offering financial aid and political support, which briefly lifted hopes for broader diplomatic openings before the market corrected.
Clashes erupt between Syrian government forces and Kurdish fighters in Aleppo
December 31, 2026 drops to 23%8%
Violent clashes between Syrian government forces and Kurdish fighters in northern Syria undermined stability and complicated Syria's internal situation, reducing prospects for normalization with Israel and causing market prices to fall.
Syrian government and Kurdish-led forces discuss military merger with no tangible results
June 30, 2026 drops to 11%5%
Talks in Damascus between Syrian government and Kurdish-led forces over military merger failed to produce tangible results, signaling ongoing divisions and reducing prospects for normalization by mid-2026.
Recall of July 2025 Israeli strike fuels skepticism on talks
December 31, 2026 plunges to 11%21%
An Israeli airstrike on the Syrian Defence Ministry headquarters in July 2025 was referenced in multiple reports on Dec 12, reminding traders that military clashes remained possible despite diplomatic talks, contributing to a sudden 21‑point drop from 32 % to 11 % on Dec 13.
Israel and Syria agree on intelligence‑sharing mechanism during second day of Paris talks
December 31, 2026 plunges to 18%19%
Second day of Paris talks produced a joint statement on an intelligence‑sharing and commercial‑cooperation mechanism, reviving optimism; the market jumped to 18 % Yes on 2025‑12‑12 for the Dec‑2026 outcome.
Syrian president hints at possible Israel talks but acknowledges obstacles
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%7%
Foreign Policy reported on Dec 11 2025 that Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa publicly hinted at normalization while noting internal and regional challenges, tempering expectations and contributing to a price dip.
Israeli Foreign Minister tempers expectations on Syria security agreement
December 31, 2026 plunges to 17%20%
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar stated that Israel and Syria were further from reaching a security agreement than weeks prior, citing new Syrian demands. This statement dampened market optimism significantly.
Israel refuses to withdraw from Syrian territory without comprehensive peace deal
December 31, 2026 drops to 25%12%
Israel publicly stated it would not withdraw from positions seized in Syria without a full peace agreement, signaling a major obstacle to normalization and causing market prices to fall further.
Israel and Syria agree to continue dialogue and establish joint communication cell under US supervision
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%10%
A joint statement confirmed the establishment of a dedicated communication cell to facilitate ongoing coordination on intelligence, military de-escalation, and diplomatic engagement, reflecting progress but not full normalization.
US President Trump urges Israel to maintain dialogue with Syria
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%4%
President Trump emphasized the importance of strong dialogue between Israel and Syria, supporting ongoing diplomatic efforts and signaling US commitment to peace in the region.
Israeli Foreign Minister Tempered Expectations for Syria Security Agreement
December 31, 2026 plunges to 23%15%
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar stated that Israel and Syria are further from reaching a security agreement than they were weeks prior, citing new demands from Syria.
Israel demands full diplomatic relations, complicating Syria talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 36%7%
Reports indicated Israel shifted its demands to require full diplomatic relations, which Syria rejected, stalling progress and tempering initial optimism about normalization prospects.
Israeli Druze leader urges US guarantees for Syrian Druze
December 31, 2026 drops to 20%8%
Reuters published an interview with Israeli Druze leader Sheikh Mowafaq Tarif in which he cited a recent meeting between Trump and al‑Sharaa. The discussion highlighted U.S. pressure on Syria to normalise but also underscored Syrian scepticism, causing the market to dip to a low of 20 % on 18 December.
Fifth round of Israel-Syria talks begins in Paris after stalled progress
December 31, 2026 jumps to 37%5%
After nearly two months of silence, Israel and Syria resumed talks in Paris mediated by the US, focusing on security arrangements. The resumption raised hopes but also revealed ongoing challenges, leading to market fluctuations.
US-backed Israel-Syria talks resume focusing on border security and regional stability
December 31, 2026 dips to 32%4%
Diplomatic dialogue between Israel and Syria resumed with US backing, emphasizing border security and potential economic engagement, reflecting ongoing efforts to stabilize relations despite unresolved core issues.
Israel and Syria agree on mechanism to share intelligence and seek economic ties
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%2%
During talks in Paris, Israel and Syria agreed to create a mechanism for de-escalation, intelligence sharing, and commercial cooperation, marking a significant step toward normalization and briefly boosting market optimism.
Israel expands buffer zone in Syria despite US calls for dialogue
December 31, 2026 drops to 36%10%
Israel expanded its military presence in southern Syria to protect Druze allies and secure its northern border, defying US President Trump's calls for negotiations. This hardened stance reduced optimism for normalization and pressured market prices downward.
Trump reminds both sides of US commitment after talks stall
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%12%
After a brief setback, Trump reiterated US commitment, causing a sharp drop in the market from 34 % to 22 % as traders interpreted the statement as acknowledging stalled progress.
Israel expands buffer zone in Syria despite US mediation efforts
June 30, 2026 dips to 18%4%
Israel's military actions to expand a buffer zone in southern Syria, contrary to US diplomatic efforts, increased tensions and reduced market confidence in normalization prospects.
Israeli Foreign Minister Sa’ar says gaps with Syria on security deal have widened
December 31, 2026 plunges to 22%16%
Sa’ar's statement about widening gaps between Israel and Syria on the security agreement indicated deteriorating prospects for normalization, contributing to further market price drops.
EU leaders visit Syria and pledge €620 million aid
Yes jumps to 31%6%
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU Council President António Costa met interim President Ahmad al‑Sharaa, signalling a thaw in Syria’s relations with the West and briefly boosting optimism for regional rapprochement, which caused a short‑term price rise.
Poll shows only 14% of Syrians support normalization with Israel
December 31, 2026 drops to 25%6%
A nationwide poll revealed very low Syrian public support for normalization with Israel, reflecting deep societal opposition and complicating the political feasibility of formal diplomatic relations. This contributed to declining market confidence in normalization by both target dates.
Syrian government forces enter northern towns after Kurdish withdrawal
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%2%
Syrian troops moved into Maskana and Deir Hafer as Kurdish forces withdrew, signaling a consolidation of state control and reducing hopes for a diplomatic opening with Israel.
Polling shows low Syrian public support for normalization with Israel
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%4%
A Foreign Policy journal poll revealed only 14% of Syrians supported normalization with Israel, with 92% viewing Israel's occupation as a critical threat, highlighting domestic opposition that dampened market optimism.
Poll shows only 14% of Syrians support normalization with Israel
December 31, 2026 drops to 35%8%
A Foreign Policy journal poll published on December 6, 2025, revealed low Syrian public support for normalization, indicating domestic challenges for the Syrian leadership and tempering market optimism.
Poll shows low Syrian public support for normalization with Israel
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%11%
A Foreign Policy journal poll published on December 6, 2025, revealed only 14% of Syrians supported normalization with Israel, indicating significant domestic opposition in Syria that could hinder official diplomatic progress.
Saudi analysts say normalization with Israel remains politically untenable
December 31, 2026 drops to 30%9%
A War on the Rocks analysis on Dec 5 2025 highlighted Saudi Arabia’s view that any Israel‑Saudi deal is blocked by settlement expansion and public outrage, signaling no imminent regional breakthrough and pulling down market optimism.
Israel expands buffer zone in Syria, defying US approach
December 31, 2026 drops to 17%10%
Israel expanded its buffer zone in Syria, diverging from US diplomatic efforts and complicating prospects for normalization under the Abraham Accords framework.
Israel expands buffer zone in Syria despite US warnings
June 30, 2026 drops to 17%14%
Israel expanded its military presence in southern Syria, defying US warnings and complicating diplomatic progress. This action increased tensions and reduced market confidence in normalization prospects.
Israeli raid in southern Syria kills 13, escalating tensions
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%4%
An Israeli military raid in southern Syria resulted in casualties and increased tensions, undermining diplomatic progress and causing market confidence in normalization to drop.
Israeli raid in southern Syria kills 13, escalating tensions and stalling talks
June 30, 2026 drops to 22%11%
An Israeli military raid in southern Syria resulted in casualties and increased tensions, causing a stall in negotiations and a drop in market confidence for normalization by mid-2026.
U.S. President Trump pushes Israeli-Syrian security agreement amid stalled progress
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
Despite initial optimism, Israeli reluctance to lose freedom of action in Syria and ongoing military operations led to stalled progress. Trump urged Netanyahu to maintain dialogue with Syria, but Israel insisted on security guarantees, dampening normalization prospects.
Trump's peace initiative stalls amid regional complexities
December 31, 2026 drops to 36%7%
Despite initial optimism, diplomatic efforts including Trump's peace plan failed to translate military successes into political normalization, with Israel maintaining hardline policies and regional tensions persisting, leading to market declines.
Israel and Syria meet in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%10%
Israeli and Syrian officials held a meeting in Paris, issuing a joint statement that emphasized a communication cell but stopped short of any concrete diplomatic breakthrough, reinforcing market doubts about a formal normalization before year‑end.
Trump administration highlights stalled Middle East peace efforts including Israel-Syria talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%10%
In early December 2025, reports indicated that despite openings, diplomatic efforts including Israel-Syria talks were stuck due to Israeli wariness and ongoing military actions. This reinforced market skepticism about normalization prospects, contributing to further price declines.
Syrian President al-Sharaa declares support for Lebanon's Hezbollah disarmament
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%6%
Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa publicly declared support for Lebanon's effort to disarm Hezbollah, a significant diplomatic gesture that could facilitate regional cooperation.
Trump administration highlights missed opportunities for Middle East peace including Israel-Syria normalization
December 31, 2026 drops to 37%7%
A senior Israeli defense official noted that diplomatic efforts have stalled, with all fronts in the Middle East still open. Despite openings created by recent conflicts, Israel remains wary of losing freedom of action in Syria, dampening prospects for normalization and causing market prices to fall.
Israel and Syria abandon joint communication cell in Paris talks
December 31, 2026 plunges to 21%15%
Israeli and Syrian delegations met in Paris but left without agreeing to establish the joint communication cell intended to coordinate intelligence and de‑escalation, signaling a setback in normalization efforts and prompting a sharp price drop for both outcomes.
Israel, Syria, U.S. agree to set up joint communication cell in Paris
December 31, 2026 drops to 35%8%
A joint statement released by the United States, Israel and Syria announced the creation of a U.S.–supervised “joint fusion mechanism” (communication cell). The news was interpreted as a step toward de‑escalation rather than full diplomatic recognition, prompting a further decline in the market to 35 % Yes.
Trump administration highlights stalled Middle East peace opportunities including Israel-Syria talks
June 30, 2026 drops to 12%7%
A Foreign Policy article detailed how diplomatic efforts to capitalize on openings in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran had stalled, with Israel wary of losing freedom of action in Syria and cautious about a security agreement. This dampened market optimism for normalization by mid-2026.
Trump administration's peace plan raises hopes but progress stalls
June 30, 2026 drops to 24%9%
Despite initial optimism from the Gaza ceasefire and regional shifts, diplomatic efforts including with Syria have stalled due to Israeli reluctance to concede territory and ongoing military actions, dampening market confidence in normalization by June 30, 2026.
Israel captures Iranian-linked terrorist cell in southern Syria
December 31, 2026 drops to 36%7%
Israel announced capturing a terrorist cell operated by Iran in southern Syria, increasing tensions and complicating normalization talks, contributing to a price drop from 43% to 36%.
Israeli PM Netanyahu says Syria deal possible, demands buffer zone
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%11%
Netanyahu expressed that a deal with Syria is achievable but insisted on a demilitarized buffer zone from Damascus to Mount Hermon, reflecting Israel's security concerns and complicating negotiations. This tempered market optimism.
Netanyahu signals possibility of deal with Syria but demands buffer zone
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%1%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that an agreement with Syria is achievable if Syria establishes a demilitarized buffer zone, reflecting ongoing negotiation complexities and Israeli security concerns.
Israeli PM Netanyahu says Syria deal possible, expects buffer zone
June 30, 2026 drops to 33%11%
Netanyahu expressed optimism about a possible deal with Syria contingent on establishing a demilitarized buffer zone, reinforcing market hopes for progress but highlighting key Israeli security demands.
Trump administration highlights missed Middle East peace opportunities including Syria
December 31, 2026 drops to 46%5%
A senior Israeli defense official noted that diplomatic opportunities in Syria and other regional fronts were being squandered due to mishandling and delays by the U.S., Israel, and Arab states. This underscored the stalled progress in Israel-Syria relations and contributed to market pessimism about normalization.
Netanyahu says Syria deal possible, expects buffer zone
December 31, 2026 drops to 37%6%
On 2 December Reuters quoted Netanyahu saying a deal with Syria was possible but that Damascus must set up a demilitarised buffer zone. The statement hinted at progress but also highlighted significant remaining gaps, prompting the market to swing lower again (down to 37 % on 3 December).
Netanyahu says Syria deal possible but demands buffer zone
June 30, 2026 plunges to 12%20%
Prime Minister Netanyahu said a deal was possible but insisted on a demilitarised buffer zone, adding uncertainty about full diplomatic recognition. The market reacted with a sharp dip (‑20 pts) as the June‑2026 outcome fell to 12 % Yes.
Israeli PM Netanyahu says deal with Syria possible, demands buffer zone
December 31, 2026 plunges to 22%15%
Netanyahu stated a deal with Syria is possible contingent on establishing a demilitarized buffer zone, reflecting ongoing negotiations but also Israeli security concerns.
Netanyahu says a Syria deal is possible and expects a demilitarised buffer zone
December 31, 2026 rises to 37%4%
Netanyahu announced a possible deal and called for a demilitarised buffer zone, raising expectations of a breakthrough. The market rose sharply to 37 % Yes on 2025‑12‑02 (from 33 %).
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu signals possibility of Syria deal with buffer zone
December 31, 2026 drops to 27%10%
Netanyahu stated a deal with Syria is possible, expecting a demilitarized buffer zone, which raised hopes for normalization but also highlighted ongoing security concerns.
Israeli PM Netanyahu signals possibility of deal with Syria, expects demilitarized buffer zone
June 30, 2026 drops to 36%14%
Netanyahu publicly stated that a deal with Syria is possible, expecting Syrian authorities to establish a demilitarized buffer zone from Damascus to Mount Hermon. This statement raised market optimism about progress toward normalization or security arrangements.
Israeli PM Netanyahu signals possibility of Syria deal with buffer zone
December 31, 2026 jumps to 45%10%
Netanyahu publicly stated a deal with Syria is possible, expecting a demilitarized buffer zone, which briefly increased market confidence in normalization prospects by end-2026.
Israel Defense Forces conduct raid in southern Syria, escalating tensions
June 30, 2026 drops to 16%6%
An Israeli raid in Beit Jinn resulted in casualties and heightened tensions, undermining trust and progress in talks, leading to further market price declines for normalization prospects.
UN General Assembly adopts resolution demanding Israeli withdrawal from Syrian Golan Heights
December 31, 2026 drops to 32%6%
The UN General Assembly passed a resolution calling for Israel to withdraw from the occupied Syrian Golan Heights, reaffirming international non-recognition of Israeli annexation. This increased international pressure on Israel and highlighted the contentious status of the Golan Heights, a key obstacle to normalization.
Israel, Syria, US agree to joint intelligence sharing mechanism in Paris talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%6%
Following meetings in Paris, Israel, Syria, and the United States agreed to establish a joint fusion mechanism—a dedicated communication cell—to facilitate coordination on intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, diplomatic engagement, and commercial opportunities under US supervision. This agreement was a major diplomatic breakthrough.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris
June 30, 2026 drops to 22%11%
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks aiming to broker a security agreement focused on sovereignty, stability, and security. They agreed to establish a joint communication cell for coordination under U.S. supervision. This raised hopes for normalization but did not resolve core issues, leading to a moderate price decline for normalization by June 30, 2026.
Netanyahu says deal with Syria possible but demands demilitarized buffer zone
December 31, 2026 plunges to 36%15%
Netanyahu publicly stated a deal with Syria is possible if a demilitarized buffer zone is established, reflecting ongoing US efforts but also Israel's firm conditions, causing market fluctuations.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu says deal with Syria possible, expects buffer zone
Netanyahu publicly stated that a deal with Syria was possible but emphasized the need for a demilitarized buffer zone, signaling cautious optimism but also clear Israeli red lines, which tempered market enthusiasm.
Netanyahu states Syria deal possible with demilitarized buffer zone
December 31, 2026 dips to 39%3%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly acknowledged the possibility of a deal with Syria involving a demilitarized buffer zone, reflecting cautious optimism but also highlighting ongoing security concerns that tempered market enthusiasm.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu says Syria deal possible, expects buffer zone
June 30, 2026 drops to 14%7%
Netanyahu expressed optimism about a possible deal with Syria, expecting a demilitarized buffer zone from Damascus to Mount Hermon. This statement reflected cautious hope for progress but also underscored ongoing security concerns and territorial disputes.
Israeli raid in Beit Jinn escalates tensions with Syria
June 30, 2026 drops to 20%12%
An Israeli military raid in southern Syria's Beit Jinn resulted in casualties and heightened tensions, undermining diplomatic efforts. The raid demonstrated Israel's hardline security approach, complicating prospects for normalization and contributing to market price declines.
Trump urges Israel not to interfere with Syria’s evolution after deadly raid
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%7%
President Trump posted on Truth Social urging Israel not to “interfere” with Syria’s evolution after the Beit Jinn raid. The public admonition highlighted tensions between the United States’ push for Syrian‑Israeli dialogue and Israel’s on‑the‑ground actions, pushing the market further down.
Reports indicate stalled progress due to Israeli demands for full diplomatic relations
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%4%
Negotiations faced setbacks as Israel reportedly shifted demands to require full diplomatic relations, which Syria rejected, complicating the process and reducing market optimism.
Israel demands full diplomatic relations in Syria talks, complicating progress
December 31, 2026 plunges to 16%15%
Reports indicated Israel shifted its demands to require full diplomatic relations with Syria, which Syria rejected as not currently feasible, further complicating negotiations and reducing market confidence in a deal by mid-2026.
Reports indicate Israel hardens stance, demands full peace deal for troop withdrawal
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%4%
Israeli media reported that Israel would only withdraw troops from Syrian territory in exchange for a comprehensive peace agreement, not a mere security pact. This hardened stance complicated negotiations and dampened market expectations for near-term normalization.
Israeli raid in southern Syria kills 13, escalating tensions
June 30, 2026 plunges to 15%16%
An Israeli military raid in Beit Jinn killed 13 Syrians, causing condemnation from Syria and raising tensions. This incident negatively impacted market confidence in normalization prospects due to increased hostility.
Deadly Israeli raid in southern Syria kills at least 13, escalating tensions
June 30, 2026 drops to 15%8%
An Israeli military operation in Beit Jinn resulted in 13 deaths and multiple injuries, provoking Syrian condemnation and further straining relations. This violent escalation contributed to a sharp drop in market confidence for normalization by both June and December 2026.
Israeli raid in southern Syria kills 13, escalating tensions
December 31, 2026 plunges to 13%19%
An Israeli military raid in Beit Jinn, southern Syria, killed 13 people, causing condemnation from Syria and increasing tensions, which negatively impacted prospects for normalization.
Israeli military raid in southern Syria kills at least 10
June 30, 2026 drops to 22%11%
An Israeli operation in Beit Jin, southern Syria, resulted in at least 10 deaths and heightened tensions. This military action undermined trust and prospects for normalization, causing market prices for June 30, 2026, and December 31, 2026, outcomes to drop significantly.
Deadly Israeli raid in southern Syria kills at least 13, escalating tensions
December 31, 2026 dips to 39%4%
An Israeli military raid in Beit Jinn killed at least 13 people, including civilians, provoking Syrian condemnation and accusations of war crimes, further reducing market confidence in normalization prospects.
Israeli Military Raid in Beit Jinn Leaves 10 Dead, Straining Peace Efforts
June 30, 2026 drops to 17%6%
A major Israeli military operation in the southern Syrian village of Beit Jinn resulted in at least 10 deaths and multiple injuries, prompting Syria to denounce the action as a war crime and severely damaging normalization prospects.
Israeli army kills 13 in Syrian town of Beit Jinn amid rising tensions
June 30, 2026 drops to 22%14%
The killing of 13 individuals by the Israeli army in Beit Jinn escalated tensions and undermined trust, contributing to market declines in normalization prospects for both June and December 2026 outcomes.
Israeli operation in southern Syria kills 13 civilians in Beit Jinn
June 30, 2026 plunges to 19%15%
An Israeli military raid in the Syrian town of Beit Jinn resulted in at least 13 deaths and dozens injured, escalating tensions and drawing condemnation from Syria and France. This military action undermined trust and further reduced market optimism for normalization by both June and December 2026.
Israel’s raid on Beit Jinn kills 13 Syrians, sparking Syrian condemnation
December 31, 2026 drops to 38%7%
Israeli forces raided the Syrian village of Beit Jinn, killing 13 Syrians (including two children). The operation was condemned as a war crime by the Syrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The deadly incursion further eroded optimism that a diplomatic settlement could be reached.
Israel and Syria agree to create joint mechanism for de-escalation in Paris talks
June 30, 2026 jumps to 40%7%
During US-mediated talks in Paris, Israel and Syria agreed to establish a joint communication cell to share intelligence and coordinate military de-escalation, signaling a potential step toward normalization. This announcement raised market optimism for normalization by June 30, 2026, reflected in price increases.
Israeli Defense Minister Katz Explicitly Rules Out Peace Path with Syria
June 30, 2026 drops to 21%12%
Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz stated in a closed Knesset session that Israel is not on a path to peace with Syria, citing security threats and potential ground invasions from Syrian territory.
Israel and Syria agree to create mechanism for de-escalation and diplomacy in Paris talks
June 30, 2026 plunges to 14%20%
During US-mediated talks in Paris, Israel and Syria agreed to establish a joint mechanism to facilitate intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, and commercial opportunities, signaling a step toward improved relations but falling short of full normalization.
Syrian source says signing of security annex with Israel could happen soon
December 31, 2026 jumps to 26%8%
A report in the Islam Times suggested a possible signing of a security annex within weeks, causing a small uptick to 26 % Yes on 2025‑12‑18 (the market’s peak before the subsequent decline).
Trump pushes Saudi crown prince to advance Israel‑Syria normalisation, prince resists
Yes dips to 43%1%
During a tense meeting, President Trump urged Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to move toward normalisation with Israel and Syria, but the prince reiterated that Palestinian statehood was a precondition, signalling no imminent progress.
Saudi Crown Prince reiterates Palestinian statehood as precondition for normalization with Israel
December 31, 2026 drops to 46%5%
Saudi Arabia publicly and privately emphasized that normalization with Israel remains contingent on progress toward Palestinian statehood, with no concrete steps toward normalization expected soon. This stance reinforced regional skepticism and reduced market confidence in imminent Israel-Syria normalization.
Trump pushes Saudi crown prince to advance Israel‑Syria normalization, prince rebuffs
December 31, 2026 drops to 44%7%
Axios reported that President Trump urged Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to move toward normalizing relations with Israel and Syria, but the prince emphasized that Palestinian statehood remains a precondition, dampening market optimism and triggering a 13‑point drop.
Saudi Arabia signals no immediate normalization with Israel without Palestinian progress
December 31, 2026 drops to 43%8%
Saudi Arabia publicly stated that normalization with Israel is contingent on progress toward Palestinian statehood, a condition unlikely to be met soon, dampening regional prospects for Israel-Syria normalization and reducing market confidence.
Israel and Syria agree to create joint mechanism for de-escalation and cooperation
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%7%
During the second day of talks in Paris, Israel and Syria agreed to establish a joint fusion mechanism to facilitate intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, diplomatic engagement, and commercial opportunities under US supervision, reflecting progress in negotiations.
Saudi Arabia signals normalization with Israel contingent on Palestinian statehood progress
December 31, 2026 drops to 43%8%
Saudi Arabia publicly stated normalization with Israel is a distant possibility contingent on Palestinian statehood progress, with no concrete steps toward normalization. This stance influenced regional dynamics and lowered market expectations for Israel-Syria normalization.
Syrian President Al-Sharaa's White House visit signals diplomatic comeback but no normalization yet
December 31, 2026 dips to 42%2%
The visit marked Syria's re-engagement with the U.S. and raised hopes for future normalization with Israel, but al-Sharaa reiterated that normalization was conditional on Israeli withdrawal, keeping market sentiment cautious and prices low.
Israel and Syria resume diplomatic dialogue under US mediation
June 30, 2026 plunges to 33%17%
Fox News reported the resumption of diplomatic dialogue under US mediation, temporarily lifting odds; the market rose to 33 % Yes for the June‑2026 outcome on that date.
Kazakhstan announces accession to Abraham Accords, Syria shows serious interest
Kazakhstan's accession to the Abraham Accords and Syria's expressed interest in joining increased regional momentum for normalization, briefly boosting market confidence.
Israel and Syria agree to create joint mechanism for de-escalation and economic ties
December 31, 2026 drops to 38%7%
During the second day of talks in Paris, Israel and Syria agreed to establish a mechanism facilitating de-escalation, diplomacy, and commercial opportunities, reflecting a commitment to turn a new page in relations.
Reports indicate Israel demands full diplomatic relations, complicating talks with Syria
June 30, 2026 plunges to 32%18%
Reports emerged that Israel shifted its demands to require full diplomatic relations, which Syria rejected as not currently feasible, causing stalled progress and market price declines for normalization by both June and December 2026.
Talks stall as Israel refuses withdrawal without comprehensive peace deal
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%7%
Reports indicated that Israel hardened its stance, refusing to withdraw troops from Syrian territory without a full peace agreement, causing a breakdown in negotiations and dampening normalization prospects.
Netanyahu visits occupied Syrian territory amid stalled peace talks
Netanyahu's visit to the buffer zone in southern Syria signaled a hardline stance, angering Damascus and raising doubts about a security deal, which negatively impacted market confidence.
Talks reportedly break down over Israeli refusal to withdraw troops without comprehensive peace deal
June 30, 2026 dips to 31%1%
Reports indicated that Israel hardened its stance, refusing to withdraw troops from Syrian territory without a full peace agreement, which Syria did not accept, causing a stall in negotiations and dampening normalization prospects.
EU delegation visits Syria, signals openness to diplomatic engagement
June 30, 2026 drops to 14%11%
Senior EU officials met Syrian interim President Ahmad al‑Sharaa, offering substantial financial support and expressing willingness to improve relations, which briefly raised hopes of a Syrian‑Israeli rapprochement before the market corrected as no concrete steps with Israel followed.
Israel and Syria hold first U.S.-mediated talks in Paris
Yes drops to 39%6%
Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris for U.S.-brokered talks on a security arrangement, raising hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough but ending without a joint statement, which led to a modest price decline as traders saw no concrete progress.
Talks reportedly break down over Israeli withdrawal demands
December 31, 2026 drops to 32%13%
Reports emerged that talks broke down after Israel refused to withdraw troops from Syrian territory without a comprehensive peace agreement, which Syria did not agree to. This hardened Israeli stance and stalled progress, causing market prices to decline.
Israel hardens stance, refuses troop withdrawal without full peace deal
December 31, 2026 drops to 33%13%
Reports indicated Israel would not withdraw troops from Syrian territory seized after Assad's fall without a comprehensive peace agreement, complicating negotiations and dampening market optimism.
Syrian government condemns Netanyahu’s visit to occupied southern Syria
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
Damascus condemned Netanyahu’s visit to Israeli troops in occupied Syrian territory, escalating tensions and further dimming prospects for normalization or a security deal before year-end.
Syria condemns Netanyahu’s visit to occupied south
December 31, 2026 drops to 44%7%
Reuters reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Israeli‑occupied southern Syria, prompting a strong condemnation from Damascus. The visit underscored the lack of progress in U.S‑mediated talks and pushed market participants to reassess the likelihood of a formal normalization before year‑end, driving the Yes probability down sharply (from 51 % to 44 %) over the next few days.
Israeli media reports talks stall over troop withdrawal demands
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%7%
Reports emerged that Israeli demands for troop withdrawal from Syrian territory seized after Assad's fall were unmet, causing talks to stall and tempering initial optimism about normalization prospects.
Israel PM Netanyahu visits troops in occupied Syrian territory, angering Damascus and casting doubt on peace deal
December 31, 2026 drops to 36%10%
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to Israeli troops in occupied Syrian territory angered Syria and raised doubts about the possibility of a security deal or normalization, reinforcing the market's negative outlook on normalization prospects.
Reports claim Israel-Syria talks break down over Israeli troop withdrawal demands
June 30, 2026 dips to 31%1%
Israeli public broadcaster Kan reported that talks stalled after Israel refused to withdraw troops from Syrian territory without a comprehensive peace agreement, dampening market expectations for a near-term deal.
Netanyahu Visits Syrian Buffer Zone and Asserts Continued IDF Presence
June 30, 2026 dips to 32%4%
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the IDF-held buffer zone in Syria, reinforcing that Israeli forces would remain on Mount Hermon and in the security zone, which drew strong condemnation from Damascus.
Syrian President al-Sharaa visits White House to discuss potential Israel-Syria security treaty
December 31, 2026 dips to 43%3%
Al-Sharaa's visit to the White House to discuss a US-brokered security treaty raised hopes for a breakthrough, but Israeli refusal to withdraw from occupied territories caused skepticism, leading to market volatility.
Syrian President al-Sharaa visits White House to discuss Israel-Syria security treaty
June 30, 2026 dips to 33%3%
Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa met with US President Donald Trump to discuss a potential security treaty with Israel brokered by the US. However, Israeli refusal to withdraw troops without a comprehensive peace agreement led to stalled negotiations, causing market prices to drop.
Israel-Syria security talks reach dead end amid territorial disputes
December 31, 2026 drops to 40%6%
Israeli public broadcaster reported that security negotiations between Israel and Syria hit a dead end due to widening differences, with Israel refusing to withdraw troops without a comprehensive peace deal and Syria demanding return to 1974 lines. This stalemate caused market confidence in near-term normalization to drop sharply.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu visits Israeli troops in occupied southern Syria, hardening stance
December 31, 2026 drops to 38%5%
Netanyahu's visit to troops in occupied Syrian territory signaled Israel's refusal to withdraw without a comprehensive peace deal, angering Damascus and diminishing chances for a security agreement or normalization soon.
Netanyahu visits Israeli-controlled areas in southern Syria amid tensions
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%6%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu toured IDF positions near the Druze village of Hader in southern Syria, emphasizing Israel's security concerns and protection of minorities. This visit highlighted ongoing tensions and complicated prospects for normalization.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu visits buffer zone in southern Syria amid stalled talks
June 30, 2026 plunges to 16%16%
Netanyahu's visit to Israeli-held positions in southern Syria underscored Israel's insistence on maintaining military presence unless a comprehensive peace deal is reached, signaling hardened Israeli stance and contributing to market decline in normalization odds.
Netanyahu Conducts Provocative Visit to Syrian Buffer Zone
June 30, 2026 drops to 30%6%
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the occupied Syrian buffer zone alongside top defense and diplomatic officials, signaling permanent entrenchment and a refusal to concede to Syrian sovereignty demands.
Israel and Syria resume diplomatic talks under US mediation in Paris
June 30, 2026 drops to 30%9%
Israel and Syria restarted diplomatic dialogue with US backing, focusing on border security and regional stability, signaling a potential thaw in relations and boosting market optimism for normalization by mid-2026.
Netanyahu Visits Israeli Troops in Southern Syrian Buffer Zone
June 30, 2026 drops to 30%6%
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a provocative visit to the occupied buffer zone in southern Syria, reinforcing Israel's military presence and further dampening hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu tours IDF positions near Druze village amid tensions
June 30, 2026 drops to 24%9%
Netanyahu visited military positions near the Druze village of Hader in southern Syria, signaling Israel's focus on security and buffer zones rather than normalization, which negatively impacted market sentiment.
Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa visits White House to discuss Israel-Syria security treaty
June 30, 2026 dips to 28%4%
Syrian President al-Sharaa met with US President Trump to discuss a potential security treaty with Israel, brokered by the Trump administration, aiming to secure Israel's northern border and promote regional stability. This high-level engagement raised hopes for progress but also highlighted challenges, as Israel demanded a comprehensive peace deal before troop withdrawal.
Israel-Syria talks stall as Israel ties troop withdrawal to full peace deal
June 30, 2026 plunges to 16%17%
Reports emerged that Israel refused to withdraw troops from Syrian territory without a comprehensive peace agreement, which Syria is not ready to offer, leading to a deadlock and further market price declines.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris for security agreement
December 31, 2026 drops to 46%5%
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks focused on a security agreement to reduce tensions, agreeing to establish a joint communication cell for coordination. This was a positive diplomatic step but did not indicate imminent normalization, leading to moderate market optimism for the longer-term outcome.
Saudi Crown Prince's US visit signals shift away from Israel normalization pressure
December 31, 2026 drops to 46%5%
Mohammed bin Salman's White House visit crystallized a shift in U.S.-Saudi relations, reducing U.S. leverage to demand Saudi normalization with Israel. This indicated broader regional resistance to normalization with Israel, negatively impacting prospects for Israel-Syria normalization.
Israeli sources report peace agreement close based on 1974 lines
December 31, 2026 jumps to 43%10%
Israeli sources indicated in late October 2025 that a peace agreement with Syria was close, based on the 1974 disengagement lines, including minority protections and a trilateral committee. This raised market optimism for normalization by December 2026.
Negotiations between Israel and Syria reach dead end over troop withdrawal and peace deal conditions
June 30, 2026 plunges to 23%16%
Reports confirmed that talks between Israel and Syria over a security agreement reached a dead end, with Israel only willing to withdraw troops in exchange for a full peace deal, which Syria currently does not accept. This stalemate further decreased market confidence in normalization by mid-2026.
Reports indicate Israel demands full diplomatic relations, complicating talks with Syria
June 30, 2026 dips to 33%3%
Reports emerged that Israel shifted its demands to require full diplomatic relations, which Syria rejected as not currently feasible, causing a stall in negotiations and dampening market optimism for normalization by mid-2026.
Israeli Defense Minister says IDF will remain in Syrian buffer zone as talks stall
December 31, 2026 dips to 43%3%
Reports indicated that negotiations between Israel and Syria on a security agreement had reached a dead end, with Israel insisting on a comprehensive peace deal before withdrawal. This hardened stance caused market prices for normalization to drop further.
Israel raises demands, insists on comprehensive peace deal for troop withdrawal
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%12%
Reports emerged that Israel rejected Syrian requests for withdrawal from positions occupied since Assad's fall, demanding a comprehensive peace agreement instead of a mere security pact. This hardened stance dampened market optimism for near-term normalization.
Israel raises demands, refuses troop withdrawal without comprehensive peace deal
December 31, 2026 drops to 36%7%
Reports indicated Israel hardened its stance, refusing to withdraw troops from Syrian territory without a full peace agreement, complicating negotiations and dampening prospects for near-term normalization.
Reports indicate Israel-Syria security talks have stalled
December 31, 2026 drops to 33%13%
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz and media reports confirmed that negotiations on a security agreement had reached a dead end, with Israel insisting on a comprehensive peace deal before withdrawal. This news caused further market declines in normalization chances.
Israel-Syria Security Negotiations Reach Dead End Over Territorial Disputes
December 31, 2026 drops to 33%8%
Reports emerged that bilateral security talks brokered by the U.S. reached a stalemate due to Israel's refusal to withdraw to pre-December 2024 borders and its demands for a deep demilitarized zone.
Reports of close agreement between Israel and Syria based on 1974 disengagement accord
December 31, 2026 drops to 37%5%
Israeli sources indicated a near agreement with Syria based on the 1974 disengagement agreement, raising market optimism about potential normalization.
Israel Rejects Syrian Withdrawal Request, Demanding Comprehensive Peace Deal
June 30, 2026 jumps to 36%5%
Reports emerged that Israel rejected Syria's request to withdraw from newly occupied positions unless Damascus agreed to a full, comprehensive peace treaty rather than a limited security pact.
Israel says it will pull back from Syrian territory only for a full peace deal
December 31, 2026 drops to 41%10%
Israeli officials publicly announced that they would withdraw from Syrian‑occupied positions only in exchange for a comprehensive peace treaty, not a security pact. The hardening of Israel’s stance was reported by Israel’s public broadcaster Kan and caused the market’s “Yes” probability to slide from 51 % to 41 % over the next few days.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu visits occupied Syrian territory, angering Damascus
June 30, 2026 drops to 19%12%
Netanyahu's visit to Israeli troops in southern Syria's occupied buffer zone was condemned by Syria and signaled Israel's hardline stance, further stalling talks and causing market confidence to decline.
Israeli officials visit buffer zone in southern Syria amid stalled talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%4%
Netanyahu and senior Israeli officials visited the buffer zone in southern Syria, signaling Israel's intent to maintain military presence despite ongoing negotiations. This hardened Israel's stance and contributed to market declines in normalization prospects.
Syrian foreign minister says talks on normalising ties with Israel have stalled
Yes drops to 44%7%
Syrian FM Asaad al‑Shaibani publicly stated that the tentative opening toward Israel had stalled, dampening hopes for any diplomatic breakthrough and pushing market sentiment lower.
Israeli Defense Minister Katz states IDF will remain on Mount Hermon amid stalled talks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 46%5%
Katz's statement and reports of stalled talks indicated Israel's refusal to withdraw from occupied Syrian territory without a full peace deal, dampening market expectations for near-term normalization.
Israeli Prime Minister visits Syria buffer zone amid stalled talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%7%
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz and Prime Minister Netanyahu visited the buffer zone in Syria, signaling Israel's intent to maintain military presence despite stalled negotiations. Syria condemned the visit, and reports indicated talks had reached a dead end, dampening prospects for normalization.
Israel Rejects Syrian Withdrawal Request, Demanding Full Peace Deal
December 31, 2026 drops to 35%8%
Reports emerged that Israel rejected Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa's request to withdraw from positions occupied after the fall of Assad, stating it would only withdraw in exchange for a comprehensive peace agreement, which was not currently on the cards.
Israel-Syria Security Talks Reach Deadlock Over Troop Withdrawal Demands
December 31, 2026 rises to 44%3%
Negotiations for a landmark security agreement stalled after Israel refused to withdraw its forces from positions seized after the fall of Assad unless Syria agreed to a comprehensive peace deal.
Israel warns against celebrating Hamas massacre amid Syria security deal talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 40%6%
Israel issued a blunt warning following unauthorized Syrian celebrations of the Hamas-led massacre, signaling hardened Israeli attitudes and complicating the security deal prospects. This contributed to market declines reflecting increased skepticism about normalization.
Israel declares talks with Syria at dead‑end after rejecting full withdrawal demand
December 31, 2026 drops to 45%6%
Israel’s senior officials announced a “dead‑end” in talks after rejecting President Ahmed al‑Sharaa’s request that Israel withdraw from all positions it occupied after December 2024. The statement was reported by Israel’s Kan news agency and cited unnamed sources. The rejection sharply lowered market confidence that a full diplomatic breakthrough was imminent.
Syrian President al-Sharaa emphasizes Israeli withdrawal precondition for agreement
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%7%
During a Washington visit, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa stated that Israel must withdraw to pre-December 8 borders before a final agreement, signaling a major sticking point and dampening market expectations.
Warming US-Syria ties put pressure on Israel over Syria security deal
June 30, 2026 dips to 33%3%
Improved relations between US President Trump and Syrian President al-Sharaa increased US leverage in talks, pressuring Israel to advance security arrangements with Syria, though full normalization remained uncertain.
Syria insists no full diplomatic relations without Israeli withdrawal
December 31, 2026 plunges to 30%16%
Syria stated it would not agree to full diplomatic relations without Israel withdrawing to pre-December 8 borders, complicating negotiations and causing market confidence to drop sharply.
US President Trump pushes for Syria and Saudi normalization with Israel
December 31, 2026 drops to 40%6%
Trump publicly advocated for normalization between Israel and Syria, as well as Saudi Arabia, boosting market expectations for a breakthrough in Israel-Syria relations. However, Syria's president remained cautious about direct negotiations.
Reports indicate Israel demands full diplomatic relations, Syria resists
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%7%
Reports emerged that Israel's terms had shifted to demanding full diplomatic relations, which Syria rejected as not currently feasible, complicating negotiations and dampening market optimism.
Clashes erupt between Syrian government forces and Kurdish fighters in Aleppo
June 30, 2026 plunges to 33%19%
Violent clashes between Syrian government forces and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in Aleppo undermined the stability needed for normalization talks, causing market prices for June 30, 2026 to drop sharply.
Syrian Foreign Minister expresses desire for agreement with Israel but highlights Israeli occupation
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%4%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Al-Shaibani publicly stated Syria's wish to reach an agreement with Israel while condemning Israeli military presence and air strikes, reflecting ongoing tensions and cautious diplomacy that tempered market optimism.
Syrian President al-Sharaa states Israel must withdraw to pre-Dec. 8 borders for peace deal
June 30, 2026 plunges to 35%15%
In an interview, al-Sharaa emphasized that a final peace deal requires Israel's withdrawal to pre-December 8, 2024 borders, supported by the US and international partners. This firm stance contributed to a sharp market decline in normalization probability.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-mediated talks in Paris to defuse tensions
December 31, 2026 drops to 46%5%
On November 12, 2025, Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris under U.S. mediation to discuss a security agreement focusing on sovereignty, security, and prosperity. The talks aimed to reactivate a 1974 disengagement agreement and establish a joint communication cell for coordination, but no breakthrough on normalization was announced, leading to a moderate price drop.
U.S. confirms daily Israel‑Syria contacts
December 31, 2026 drops to 46%5%
A brief U.S. comment that direct daily contacts were ongoing produced a minor dip; market “Yes” fell from 51 % on 2025‑11‑11 to 46 % on 2025‑11‑21.
U.S.-mediated Israel-Syria talks resume in Paris to defuse tensions
June 30, 2026 rises to 52%2%
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris under U.S. mediation to discuss a security agreement focused on sovereignty, stability, and security, raising hopes for normalization. This event initially boosted market optimism for normalization by June 30, 2026.
Israel and Syria announce joint communication cell on second day of Paris talks
December 31, 2026 surges to 77%26%
The joint statement released after the second day of talks in Paris detailed the agreed‑upon communication cell and hinted at broader economic cooperation. Media reports framed it as a “new page” in relations, triggering a price peak of 77 % Yes for the December‑2026 outcome.
Reports emerge of close agreement between Israel and Syria based on 1974 disengagement accord
June 30, 2026 rises to 36%3%
Israeli sources indicated that an agreement was close, involving a trilateral committee and guarantees for minority protection, raising market optimism for normalization by June 30, 2026.
Israel and Syria agree to create joint mechanism for de-escalation and cooperation
December 31, 2026 drops to 37%5%
During talks in Paris, Israel and Syria agreed to establish a communication cell for intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, and diplomatic engagement, signaling progress in relations.
Trump declares Israel‑Syria talks a turning point for regional stability
December 31, 2026 surges to 77%26%
Trump publicly praised the renewed talks, saying a “new page” was being turned. The optimistic statement temporarily boosted the market, raising the December‑2026 probability to 77 % before the subsequent reversal.
Syrian President al-Sharaa confirms direct talks with Israel but insists on Israeli withdrawal
June 30, 2026 plunges to 35%15%
In an interview, al-Sharaa confirmed ongoing direct negotiations with Israel toward a security agreement but rejected Israel's demand for full demilitarization of southern Syria. This nuanced stance contributed to market uncertainty and price declines for near-term normalization.
Israel raises demands, refuses troop withdrawal without comprehensive peace deal
December 31, 2026 drops to 40%11%
Israeli media reported that Israel hardened its stance, refusing to withdraw troops from Syrian territory without a full peace agreement, which is currently not on the table. This rejection of partial agreements led to a deadlock in talks and reduced market optimism for normalization.
Syrian President al-Sharaa states no deal without Israeli withdrawal
December 31, 2026 drops to 40%6%
Al-Sharaa publicly stated that Syria would not agree to a deal without Israel withdrawing from territories occupied after Assad's fall, signaling a major sticking point and causing market prices to drop sharply.
U.S.-mediated Israeli-Syrian talks resume in Paris aiming for security agreement
June 30, 2026 drops to 36%14%
Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris under U.S. mediation to discuss a security agreement focused on sovereignty, stability, and security, signaling a tentative diplomatic opening. This raised market optimism temporarily for normalization by June 30, 2026, and December 31, 2026.
Israel and Syria agree on mechanism to share intelligence and promote economic ties
During the second day of talks in Paris, Israel and Syria agreed to create a joint mechanism for de-escalation, intelligence sharing, and commercial cooperation, signaling progress in normalization efforts.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris
June 30, 2026 drops to 36%14%
Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks focusing on security, sovereignty, and cooperation, signaling a potential thaw but without concrete normalization agreements. This initially supported market optimism for normalization by June 30, 2026.
Israel and Syria agree to establish joint communication mechanism in Paris talks
June 30, 2026 drops to 44%6%
During talks in Paris, Israel and Syria agreed to create a joint fusion mechanism for intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, and diplomatic engagement under US supervision, signaling a positive step toward reducing tensions.
Israel and Syria resume diplomatic talks under US mediation in Paris
December 31, 2026 drops to 46%5%
Senior Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris under US auspices to restart diplomatic dialogue focusing on border security and regional stability, signaling a renewed diplomatic push.
U.S.-mediated talks between Israel and Syria resume in Paris to seek security agreement
December 31, 2026 drops to 45%6%
Syrian and Israeli officials, led by Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani, resumed U.S.-brokered talks in Paris aiming to reactivate the 1974 disengagement agreement and reduce tensions. This raised hopes for normalization, causing initial market optimism.
Renewed Israel-Syria talks in Paris focus on security and economic cooperation
December 31, 2026 drops to 46%5%
Senior Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris under US auspices to discuss reviving the 1974 disengagement agreement and establishing mechanisms for de-escalation and commercial ties, signaling a diplomatic push under President Trump's vision for Middle East peace.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 drops to 43%8%
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks to broker a security agreement, signaling renewed diplomatic engagement but no immediate path to normalization.
Reports of Israel-Syria direct daily contact and normalization talks emerge
December 31, 2026 drops to 42%9%
In June 2025, reports indicated Israel and Syria were in direct daily contact discussing normalization possibilities, raising market optimism. However, Syria maintained that normalization was off the table, tempering expectations.
Syrian President al-Sharaa rules out joining Abraham Accords, demands Israeli withdrawal to pre-Dec 8 borders
June 30, 2026 drops to 37%13%
In an interview, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa stated that Syria would not join the Abraham Accords and emphasized that a peace deal requires Israel's withdrawal to pre-December 8, 2024 borders. This firm stance highlighted the significant gap between the parties' positions, dampening prospects for near-term normalization.
Syrian President al-Sharaa states no direct negotiations with Israel yet
December 31, 2026 drops to 40%6%
Al-Sharaa publicly ruled out immediate direct talks with Israel, citing the Golan Heights occupation, which tempered market expectations for rapid normalization and contributed to price declines.
Syrian President al-Sharaa rules out Syria joining Abraham Accords, citing different situation
December 31, 2026 drops to 33%13%
Al-Sharaa publicly rejected joining the Abraham Accords, emphasizing Syria's unique situation and rejecting normalization without Israeli withdrawal, reinforcing skepticism about near-term normalization.
Syria's President Ahmed al-Sharaa meets US President Trump, signaling openness to talks with Israel
June 30, 2026 plunges to 32%18%
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa met with US President Donald Trump, marking a diplomatic opening that led to renewed US-backed talks between Israel and Syria focused on security and economic cooperation, initially raising market optimism for normalization by mid-2026.
U.S.-mediated talks between Israel and Syria resume in Paris
Officials from Israel and Syria met in Paris to discuss a security agreement aimed at defusing tensions, including reactivating a 1974 disengagement agreement and Israeli withdrawal from a buffer zone. This raised hopes for normalization, causing initial market optimism.
Israel and Syria agree to create joint mechanism for de-escalation and cooperation
June 30, 2026 plunges to 32%18%
During US-mediated talks in Paris, Israel and Syria agreed to establish a joint communication cell to facilitate intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, diplomatic engagement, and commercial opportunities, signaling a positive step but short of formal normalization.
U.S.-mediated Syria-Israel talks resume in Paris
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%12%
Syrian and Israeli officials began U.S.-mediated talks in Paris aimed at reaching a security agreement, with Syria seeking withdrawal of Israeli forces from a buffer zone and Israel seeking protection of its border.
Reports emerge of close agreement between Israel and Syria on normalization
December 31, 2026 drops to 42%9%
Israeli sources indicated a near agreement based on the 1974 disengagement accord, including minority protections and territorial commitments, sparking initial market optimism for normalization by end of 2026.
Israel and Syria agree to create joint mechanism for de-escalation and diplomacy
December 31, 2026 drops to 46%5%
During talks in Paris, Israel and Syria agreed to establish a joint communication cell to facilitate intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, diplomatic engagement, and commercial opportunities under US supervision. This agreement raised market optimism for normalization by enabling ongoing coordination and reducing tensions.
US-backed talks between Israel and Syria begin in Paris
Under US auspices, Israeli and Syrian officials started direct talks in Paris aiming to reduce hostilities and explore normalization possibilities, initially raising market optimism about normalization by 2026.
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa rules out Syria joining Abraham Accords
June 30, 2026 plunges to 35%15%
In an interview, al-Sharaa stated Syria's situation differs from countries that signed the Abraham Accords, dampening expectations for rapid normalization with Israel and contributing to market price declines.
Israel, Syria, and US agree to establish joint fusion mechanism for intelligence and diplomatic coordination
June 30, 2026 drops to 36%14%
Following meetings in Paris, Israel, Syria, and the US announced a joint fusion mechanism to facilitate intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, diplomatic engagement, and commercial cooperation under US supervision. This marked a significant step toward reducing tensions but fell short of full diplomatic normalization.
Israeli sources report close agreement with Syria on normalization
December 31, 2026 drops to 42%9%
In late October 2025, Israeli sources indicated a near agreement with Syria based on the 1974 disengagement agreement, including minority protections and territorial commitments, sparking initial market optimism.
Israel and Syria resume diplomatic talks under US mediation in Paris
June 30, 2026 plunges to 32%18%
Senior Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris under US auspices to restart diplomatic dialogue focusing on border security and regional stability, marking a renewed diplomatic push after months of silence. This event initially supported market optimism but revealed ongoing challenges.
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